Macro intelligence
Each metric in the macro intelligence rubric ships with a bilingual education sheet. Click any identifier to open the detailed page (definition, how to read, key zones, historical context).
Corporate treasuries
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
corp-btc-leaderboard | Corporate BTC Total Holdings | Snapshot ranking of the Bitcoin holdings of public companies, ordered by size. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds by far the largest position, ahead of a growing cohort of corporate accumulators. The ranking names the leaders of the latest snapshot; the evolution over time lives on the corporate timeline chart. | free |
corp-btc-by-country | Corporate BTC by Country | BTC holdings aggregated by country of incorporation, rendered as a horizontal-bar ranking snapshot. Every jurisdiction is named, with its holdings, its share of the corporate total and its number of listed companies. The US dominates by a wide margin, ahead of a long tail spanning Asia, Europe and the Americas. Shows the geographic concentration of corporate Bitcoin adoption at the latest snapshot. | free |
corp-btc-pct-supply | Corporate BTC % of Supply | Aggregated corporate Bitcoin holdings expressed as a percentage of total mined supply, plotted over time. Strategy alone captures the bulk of the corporate share. When combined with ETFs, institutional supply absorption becomes structurally significant. | pro |
corp-btc-pnl | Corporate BTC P&L Distribution | Unrealized profit/loss as a percentage of entry value for the top 10 corporate Bitcoin holders, each plotted as an individual time-series line. Common normalized scale lets you compare low-cost-basis veterans against more vulnerable late entrants in a single view. | pro |
corp-btc-dominance | Corporate BTC Dominance | Strategy's share of total corporate Bitcoin holdings, rendered as a single time-series percentage. A falling ratio means Strategy's share is smaller than earlier; a rising ratio means it is larger. This ratio alone does not establish why the share moved, nor how the remaining holdings are distributed among other holders. Top 2/3/10 ranks remain available in the tooltip drill-down. | free |
corp-btc-miners | Corporate BTC Miners Holdings | BTC holdings of the three listed miners tracked here: Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark. Miners who HODL vs sell create different supply pressure dynamics. Each curve stops at the date of that company's last SEC report, with no extension beyond 90 days; reports are monthly or quarterly depending on the company. | pro |
corp-btc-timeline | Corporate BTC Holdings Timeline | Aggregated total Bitcoin holdings of public companies tracked over time. Historical data accumulates progressively - the longer Trinity runs, the richer this chart becomes. Strategy crossed the 600,000 BTC milestone in July 2025; the events overlay annotates that date and the other documented milestones. | pro |
corp-btc-balance-changes | Corporate BTC Balance Changes | Daily balance changes (buys/sells) detected from snapshot deltas. Green bars = net corporate accumulation, red bars = net distribution. Spikes often correspond to major corporate announcements. | pro |
corp-btc-vs-price | Corporate BTC vs Price | Total aggregated corporate BTC holdings overlaid with BTC price. The step on 6 April 2026 comes from widening the tracked set from 20 to 165 companies, not from purchases that day. | pro |
corp-btc-accumulation-rate | Corporate BTC Accumulation Rate | Rolling 30-day average of net BTC added or removed by all corporates combined. Smooths out noise from individual transactions to reveal the underlying institutional accumulation trend. | pro |
corp-btc-new-entrants | Corporate BTC New Entrants | Number of new public companies adding BTC to their treasury over time. A rising count indicates broadening institutional adoption beyond the early movers like Strategy and Tesla. | pro |
macro-tcbci-corporate-conviction-indexEXCLUSIVE | TCBCI - Trinity Corporate Conviction Index | Trinity proprietary composite, scored on a 0-100 scale, measuring the conviction of corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin. Aggregates total corporate holdings growth, new entrants velocity, geographic diversification, MSTR premium resilience, and sector diversification. Above 65 = strong adoption. Below 35 = weakening conviction. | free |
macro-corp-country-adoption-heatmap-v2 | Corporate Adoption - US, Canada and Rest of World | Multi-line breakdown of total corporate Bitcoin holdings across the three tracked components: United States, Canada, and the rest of the world (an aggregate, not a single jurisdiction). Reveals which component concentrates corporate accumulation and how holdings rotate geographically through cycles. The shared scale preserves volume comparison; a small component stays visually compressed, and the reading does not turn that compression into an absence. | pro |
macro-corp-new-entrants-velocity | Corporate New Entrants Velocity | Daily count of companies present in the Bitcoin treasury snapshot and absent the previous day, after identifier matching. Displayed values are capped at 10. These are snapshot appearances, with no purchase date inferred; a return after an absence can be counted. | pro |
macro-corp-mstr-premium-nav-v2 | MSTR Premium NAV | Premium percentage of MicroStrategy market capitalization above its underlying Bitcoin holdings book value. Tracks the equity premium investors pay for MSTR's leveraged Bitcoin treasury exposure vs holding spot BTC directly. Healthy in low-double-digit territory; extreme premiums historically marked market tops; discounts marked cycle bottoms. | pro |
ETF flows
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
etf-btc-daily-flows | ETF BTC Daily Net Flows | Aggregated daily net flows across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, ARKB, BITB, and others). Calculated from changes in shares outstanding × NAV. Positive bars = net institutional buying. | free |
etf-btc-cumulative | ETF BTC Cumulative Net Flows | Running total of all daily net flows since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs (January 11, 2024). The slope shows the pace of net creations and redemptions: rising means net inflows, falling means net outflows. It does not identify the investors behind them. | pro |
etf-btc-by-issuer | ETF BTC Flows by Issuer | Daily net flows broken down by the three largest US spot Bitcoin ETFs: BlackRock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC), Grayscale (GBTC). Stacked diverging bars: positive contributions stack upward from zero, negative outflows stack downward - the net daily flow is the algebraic sum of the positive and negative segments, not the topmost extent. GBTC outflows vs IBIT/FBTC inflows tell the story of the Great Rotation. | pro |
etf-btc-holdings | ETF BTC Total Holdings | Total Bitcoin held by all US spot ETFs combined, measured in BTC. Tracks the stock of coins held by US spot ETF custodians at each date - this stock can rise or fall as shares are created or redeemed. | pro |
etf-btc-pct-supply | ETF BTC % of 21M BTC Cap | Percentage of the fixed 21 million BTC cap held by US spot ETFs (holdings divided by that constant cap, not by the circulating supply). A Trinity exclusive. A rise establishes that ETF holdings increased, and with them their share of the cap; it does not establish that their purchases exceed mining issuance, nor that the total supply is in shortage. | pro |
etf-eth-daily-flows | ETF ETH Daily Net Flows | Aggregated daily net flows across all US spot Ethereum ETFs. Same methodology as BTC ETF flows. Useful for comparing institutional appetite for ETH vs BTC. | pro |
etf-eth-cumulative | ETF ETH Cumulative Net Flows | Running total of all daily net flows since the launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs (July 23, 2024). Compare the adoption curve with BTC ETFs to understand the ETH institutional demand gap. | pro |
etf-btc-cumulative-by-issuer | ETF BTC Cumulative Flows by Issuer | Cumulative net flows per top-3 issuer (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC) since the spot BTC ETF launch. Each line is a running total: the selected window shows only an excerpt of it, so a level already reached before the window is not a new event. | pro |
etf-btc-issuer-market-share | 30-Day Net Flow Share by Issuer | Share of each issuer (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC) in the gross activity of the three over 30 trading days. The numerator is the issuer's signed net flow over the window; the denominator is the sum of the three issuers' absolute gross flows over the same window, never the net total. A negative share means net redemptions over the window. The three shares do not add up to 100%, so they are not an accounting market share; each share lies between -100% and +100%. A high reading on a single issuer describes concentration of net flows over the window. Rows during the 30-trading-day warmup and rows whose denominator is zero are not published. | pro |
etf-btc-flow-vs-mining | ETF BTC Flow vs Mining Supply | ETF BTC absorption as a percentage of new mining supply, rendered as 7-day and 30-day rolling averages. Above 100%: ETF net inflows exceed new mining supply. The ratio compares flows over a rolling window; it demonstrates neither a structural shortage nor a contraction of total BTC supply. The halving-aware divisor uses the authoritative Trinity halving schedule. | pro |
etf-btc-adoption-curve | Indexed BTC ETF AUM vs Indexed GLD / QQQ Prices | Two different quantities on one index. The primary line is the aggregate AUM of US spot BTC ETFs, in dollars, indexed at 100 on January 11, 2024. The two benchmarks are adjusted market prices of GLD and QQQ (splits and distributions adjusted), also indexed at 100 on the same date: they are quotations, not fund AUM. The comparison therefore reads relative trajectories, not comparable amounts under management. QQQ is a closer tech-growth risk proxy than broad S&P. Pure historical context - no forecast, no investment advice. | pro |
etf-btc-canada-holdings | ETF BTC Canada Holdings (Purpose) | Approximate BTC held by Canada's Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC.TO) - the first North American spot BTC ETF, launched on 2021-02-18, nearly three years before the US launch. Reconstructed from daily close × current shares outstanding ÷ BTC spot price. | pro |
etf-btc-net-drain | ETF BTC Net Drain vs Mining Supply | Cumulative BTC absorbed by US spot ETFs minus cumulative new mining supply from the US spot ETF launch (January 11, 2024). A positive reading means ETFs have collectively taken out more BTC than miners produced over the window. It compares flows; it demonstrates neither a structural shortage nor a contraction of total BTC supply. | pro |
etf-btc-europe-aum | ETF BTC Europe ETPs AUM | Aggregate AUM of Europe's three largest spot BTC ETPs: ETC Group Physical Bitcoin on Xetra (BTCE.DE, now Bitwise), WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin on LSE (BTCW.L), and 21Shares Bitcoin ETP on SIX Swiss (ABTC.SW). ABTC.SW is the first regulated spot BTC product in the world (listed 2018-11-21), more than 5 years before the US launch. | pro |
etf-btc-asia-pacific-aum | ETF BTC Asia-Pacific AUM | Aggregate AUM of Hong Kong's three spot BTC ETFs - ChinaAMC CSOP (3042.HK), Harvest (3439.HK), Bosera HashKey (3008.HK) - all launched 2024-04-30 - plus Australia's VanEck Bitcoin ETF (VBTC.AX, launched 2024-06-20). | pro |
etf-btc-global-coverage | ETF BTC Global Coverage (US + CA + EU + AP) | Meta-aggregate AUM of every spot BTC ETF Trinity tracks across four regions: United States (11 issuers), Canada (Purpose), Europe (3 ETPs on Xetra/LSE/SIX), Asia-Pacific (3 HK + 1 Australia). A single daily line showing the entire institutional BTC wrapper universe observable via public data. | pro |
etf-sol-daily-flows | ETF SOL Daily Net Flows | Aggregated daily net flows across the US spot Solana ETFs: Bitwise (BSOL), Grayscale (GSOL), VanEck (VSOL), Fidelity (FSOL), 21Shares (TSOL), Franklin Templeton (SOEZ) and MSOL. All are staking-enabled - they earn the SOL protocol's ~5-7% annual yield and pass most of it to shareholders. Positive bars = net institutional buying; negative bars = net redemptions. A fund with no published value that day stays missing - it is never shown as zero. | pro |
etf-sol-aum | ETF SOL Aggregate AUM | Aggregate USD assets under management across the US spot Solana ETFs, reconstructed from the cumulative daily flow series anchored on the total assets the trusts publish in their SEC filings (10-Q/10-K). Between two filings the residual is spread linearly, so the curve passes exactly through each audited point. Badge: Calculated - it is a reconstruction, not a measured quote. | pro |
etf-sol-cumulative | ETF SOL Cumulative Net Flows | Running total of all daily net flows since the first US spot Solana ETF listed (2025-10-28). The slope reads the pace of institutional adoption: steeper = faster inflows. The full history comes from the cumulative per-fund series published on the source page itself, dated on NYSE trading days. | pro |
etf-hype-daily-flows | ETF HYPE Daily Net Flows | Aggregated daily net flows across the US spot Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETFs: Bitwise (BHYP), 21Shares (THYP) and Grayscale (HYPG). Positive bars = net institutional buying; negative bars = net redemptions. A fund with no published value that day stays missing - it is never shown as zero. | pro |
etf-hype-cumulative | ETF HYPE Cumulative Net Flows | Running total of all daily net flows since the first US spot Hyperliquid ETF listed (2026-05-12). The full history comes from the cumulative per-fund series published on the source page itself, dated on NYSE trading days. | pro |
macro-tehs-etf-health-scoreEXCLUSIVE | TEHS - Trinity ETF Health Score | Trinity's proprietary composite score measures the institutional health of the Bitcoin ETF complex on a scale from 0 to 100. A high reading describes a complex whose institutional conditions are aligned; a low reading describes a complex under stress. Score construction is proprietary and not published. | free |
macro-etf-aum-growth-rate-v2 | Aggregate ETF AUM (Absolute, Log) | Absolute aggregate AUM of the Bitcoin spot ETFs tracked across US, Europe, Hong Kong / Asia-Pacific, and Canada jurisdictions, in USD. The daily value sums four jurisdictional series: the United States contributes cumulative net flows as an asset proxy, while Europe, Asia-Pacific and Canada contribute market values reconstructed from public quotations; only those three carry Bitcoin price moves. The log scale keeps the whole history readable, from the earliest wrappers to today. | pro |
macro-etf-premium-discount-nav-by-issuer | IBIT NAV Premium Deviation vs 90-Day Baseline | Deviation of BlackRock IBIT's estimated premium to NAV from its own 90-day rolling mean, smoothed over 21 days and clipped at ±1.5%. The premium is computed against a NAV proxy built from the issuer-published NAV per share and the BTC spot price. A positive reading is not a premium in the strict sense: it only means the estimated premium sits above its own recent baseline. | pro |
macro-etf-cross-jurisdiction-flow-comparison | ETF Market Share by Jurisdiction | Daily market share (%) of the combined assets of the three jurisdictions with sufficient historical data: United States (spot Jan 2024+), Europe (ETN/ETP Jun 2020+), and Canada (spot Mar 2021+). The denominator is the sum of these three markets, so the three lines add up to 100% every day and these shares are not shares of world ETF assets. Hong Kong / Asia-Pacific (Apr 2024+) is excluded from the calculation as well as from the display. Reading: Canada/Europe dominant pre-2024 → US sweep post-spot-launch. | pro |
macro-etf-hhi-issuer-concentration | ETF HHI Issuer Concentration | Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) measuring concentration across US spot Bitcoin ETF issuers, computed on their cumulative net inflows. Range 0-10000: below 1500 = competitive market, 1500-2500 = moderately concentrated, above 2500 = highly concentrated. Shows whether inflows concentrate on a single issuer or spread across the ten tracked. | pro |
macro-etf-net-flow-zscore-volatility-adjusted | ETF Net Flow Z-Score (Volatility-Adjusted) | Daily aggregate net flow standardized as a Z-score against its 90-day rolling mean and volatility, clipped at ±5σ. Above +2 = exceptional inflow day in historical context; below -2 = exceptional outflow day. Filters out ordinary noise to isolate institutional capitulation or euphoria episodes. | pro |
macro-etf-cumulative-days-net-inflow-streak | ETF Cumulative Days Net Inflow Streak | Counter of consecutive days where the aggregate Bitcoin spot ETF complex experienced net positive flows. Resets to zero on any net negative day. Long streaks (≥10 days) historically coincide with sustained accumulation phases; reset days frequently mark short-term tops or news-driven redemption events. | pro |
macro-etf-realized-vs-spot-btc-premium | ETF Realized vs Spot BTC Premium | Spread between cumulative US ETF capital invested and the current spot value of held Bitcoin. Negative readings indicate ETF holders are above water (BTC has appreciated above their average buy price); positive readings indicate ETF holders are underwater. Useful to gauge aggregate institutional cost basis vs market price. | pro |
macro-eth-btc-etf-flow-ratio-rotation | ETH/BTC ETF Cumulative Flow Ratio | Ratio of cumulative flows into US spot ETH ETFs to cumulative flows into US spot BTC ETFs, clipped to the 0-1 range. The 0.15 and 0.05 markers are descriptive levels chosen by Trinity to situate the ratio against its own history; they carry no forecast about relative prices. The ratio compares two cumulative totals and does not measure what caused the flows or any rotation between the two assets. | pro |
Global liquidity
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
global-m2-vs-btc | US + Euro Area Money Supply vs BTC | Broad-money composite of the two blocs that set global liquidity conditions: US M2 (Federal Reserve) + Euro area M3 (ECB), converted to USD, overlaid with the BTC price as observed on the same dates. Both components come from the issuing central bank itself. Monthly, published around 4 weeks after month end. Deliberately not a global aggregate: China and Japan are excluded because no source covers them that is simultaneously current and durable. | pro |
us-net-liquidity | US Net Liquidity Index | Federal Reserve balance sheet minus Treasury General Account minus Reverse Repo facility. An estimate of US net liquidity built from these three components, not a complete measure of all the liquidity in the US financial system. | free |
global-net-liquidity | Global Net Liquidity (US + ECB + BOJ) | Combined net liquidity of the three largest central banks (Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan), all converted to USD. A Trinity exclusive composite combining FX-adjusted balance sheets read from FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD, ECBASSETSW, JPNASSETS) with FRED reference exchange rates. | pro |
m2-yoy-vs-btc | M2 YoY Rate of Change vs BTC | Year-over-year percentage change in US M2 money supply, overlaid with BTC price on a shared timeline. The reader judges the lag between the two. | free |
global-liquidity-impulse | Global Liquidity Impulse | Second derivative (rate of change of the rate of change) of the Federal Reserve balance sheet (WALCL, via FRED). Measures the ACCELERATION of liquidity, not just the level - the earliest possible indication of regime shifts. | pro |
us-tga-daily-balance | US Treasury General Account (TGA) Daily | US Treasury General Account daily closing balance in USD. The TGA is the operational cash account held by the Treasury at the Federal Reserve - rising TGA drains reserves from the banking system (liquidity bearish), falling TGA injects liquidity back (bullish). Daily resolution complements the weekly FRED WTREGEN series used by the Net Liquidity composite. | pro |
us-public-debt-total | US Public Debt Outstanding (Total + Breakdown) | Total US federal public debt outstanding (USD), split between debt held by the public (marketable + non-marketable to external holders) and intragovernmental holdings (Social Security trust fund, etc.). The total starts in April 1993. Each component is plotted only from its first published value in the source and is never extrapolated backwards, so the two breakdown lines can begin later than the total. Daily series - the single most-cited aggregate in the fiscal-dominance narrative. | pro |
ecb-cpi-hicp-vs-btc | Eurozone CPI HICP YoY vs BTC | Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) annual rate of change for the Euro area, as published by the ECB and Eurosystem National Statistical Institutes. Monthly series since 1997-01. The reference inflation gauge for the Eurozone, the metric the ECB targets at 2%, shown alongside the BTC price overlay. The superposition is a descriptive comparison of two series over the same period: it does not demonstrate that BTC protects against inflation. | pro |
ecb-deposit-facility-rate-vs-btc | ECB Deposit Facility Rate vs BTC | Daily ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) - the rate banks earn on overnight excess reserves at the Eurosystem and the de-facto floor of the ECB's interest-rate corridor. Daily series since 1999-01-01. Negative from June 2014 to July 2022 (NIRP era). The single most-watched ECB policy lever and a direct Eurozone analogue to the Fed Funds rate. | pro |
ecb-total-assets-vs-btc | ECB Eurosystem Total Assets vs BTC | Monthly Eurosystem Total Assets/Liabilities consolidated balance sheet (EUR) since 1997-09. Captures the full ECB QE/QT policy footprint - the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) launched in 2015, the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) launched in 2020, and the post-2022 Quantitative Tightening roll-off. The Eurozone companion to the FRED WALCL series for the global-QE narrative. | pro |
eur-usd-vs-btc | EUR/USD Exchange Rate vs BTC | Daily ECB reference rate USD per EUR since 1999-01. EUR/USD is the most-traded currency pair worldwide and the dominant component of the US Dollar Index (DXY ~57.6% weight). Mechanical link: when EUR weakens versus USD, DXY mechanically rises, and BTC has historically faced a headwind. The chart isolates the EUR/USD leg of the dollar story. | pro |
ecb-m3-yoy-vs-btc | Eurozone M3 Annual Growth vs BTC | Monthly annual growth rate of the Euro area broad monetary aggregate M3 since 1981-01 (legacy Bundesbank data harmonized into the Eurosystem series after 1999). M3 is the ECB's primary monetary reference and the Eurozone counterpart of US M2. Currency-debasement narrative gauge: rapid M3 expansion is structurally supportive for fixed-supply assets like BTC. | pro |
boj-total-assets-vs-btc | BOJ Total Assets vs BTC | Bank of Japan total balance sheet (assets) in JPY, monthly since 1998. The BOJ is the third-largest central bank balance sheet globally (~¥700 trillion). Its QQE (2013+) and Yield Curve Control (2016+) regimes made it the boldest monetary experiment of the post-GFC era. BOJ balance sheet expansion funds the JPY carry trade, which historically has been a tailwind for global risk assets including Bitcoin. | pro |
exchange-total-reserves | Exchange Total Reserves (Proof of Reserves) | Aggregate on-chain reserves of the covered venues: known addresses of venues that publish their own addresses, scanned on Bitcoin and Tron, plus the HTX proof of reserves and the official Bitfinex wallet list. Assets held on Ethereum are not counted, so the total is a floor. Includes total reserves, clean reserves (excluding exchange native tokens), and stablecoin reserves. Declining reserves may indicate withdrawals or loss of confidence. The current method starts on 2026-09-23; earlier history came from a retired method and is not shown. | pro |
exchange-reserves-top | Exchange Reserves by Exchange | Individual reserves of the covered venues, ranked by total on-chain assets. Compare Binance, Bitfinex, OKX, HTX, Bybit and the other covered venues over time. Assets held on Ethereum are not counted, so each figure is a floor. Tracks concentration within the covered set and reserve shifts between platforms. | pro |
exchange-stablecoin-reserves | Exchange Stablecoin Reserves | Stablecoins held by the covered venues: USDT on Tron at the scanned addresses, plus the stablecoins declared in the HTX proof of reserves. Stablecoins held on Ethereum are not counted, so the total is a floor. Stablecoin reserves represent 'dry powder' - capital ready to buy. Rising stablecoin reserves on exchanges have historically pointed to capital waiting on the sidelines. | pro |
us-debt-service-cost-vs-btc | US Debt Service Cost vs BTC | Weighted average interest rate on Total Interest-bearing Debt (%) combined with total monthly interest expense on the public debt (USD). Tracks the fiscal cost of the US debt stock and its trajectory as Fed policy tightens or eases. A rising debt service burden is a structural macro headwind that conditions fiscal space, crowds out discretionary spending, and ultimately shapes the liquidity backdrop for BTC. | pro |
macro-v2-trinity-liquidity-compositeEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Liquidity Composite (TLC) | Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 that summarises the state of the global macro liquidity tide. Its construction and its inputs are not disclosed. | performance |
macro-v2-net-liquidity-multi-cb | Net Liquidity Multi-CB (Fed + ECB + BoJ) | Aggregated central bank net liquidity in USD billions: Fed Net Liquidity (Federal Reserve balance sheet (total assets) - TGA - RRP) + ECB Total Assets + BoJ Total Assets, all converted to USD via daily FX rates. | pro |
macro-v2-liquidity-impulse-2nd-derivative | Liquidity Impulse - 2nd Derivative | Second derivative of Fed Net Liquidity (90-day window). Its sign tells the direction of change in the liquidity impulse: a positive reading means the pace of change is rising, a negative reading that it is slowing. The sign of the second derivative alone does not establish whether liquidity is being injected or drained. | pro |
macro-v2-reserve-currency-status | USD Reserve Currency Status | USD share of global FX reserves proxied via Trade-Weighted Dollar Index percentile rank. High readings reflect strong dollar demand from official institutions; low readings suggest reserve diversification away from USD. | pro |
macro-v2-eurodollar-90d-futures | Eurodollar 90-day Forward (SOFR proxy) | 90-day USD funding cost forward rate proxied via SOFR + DTB3 spread (Eurodollar futures deprecated post-2023). Captures the implied short-term USD funding pressure for the next quarter. | pro |
macro-v2-fed-rrp-balance | Fed Reverse Repo (RRP) Balance | Federal Reserve Reverse Repo facility balance in USD billions. RRP usage drains excess reserves from the banking system; falling balances reflect cash redeployment into risk assets - historically a tailwind for crypto and equities. | pro |
macro-v2-treasury-general-account | Treasury General Account (TGA) Balance | U.S. Treasury checking account at the Federal Reserve in USD billions. Rising TGA drains liquidity from the private sector (Treasury collecting cash); falling TGA injects liquidity into the system. A primary lever monitored during debt ceiling resolutions. | free |
Macro cycles
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
dollar-cycle-detectorEXCLUSIVE | Dollar Cycle Phase Detector | Trinity proprietary model describing the dollar cycle phase from trend and volatility in the trade-weighted dollar index. | pro |
oil-btc-correlation | Oil vs BTC Correlation | Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between WTI Crude Oil log-returns and BTC log-returns, bounded in [-1, +1]. A positive coefficient means the two return series moved in the same direction over the window; a negative coefficient means they moved in opposite directions. The coefficient measures a linear association over the window, not a market regime or the role of either asset. | pro |
the-trinity-codeEXCLUSIVE | The Trinity Code | Trinity Insights proprietary composite synthesizing global monetary expansion against the restraining forces of dollar strength and long-term yields. When the Trinity Code rises, monetary expansion dominates - the flagship indication of macro tailwinds for Bitcoin. | performance |
btc-fed-ratio | BTC / Fed Balance Sheet Ratio | Bitcoin market cap (or price) divided by the Fed's total assets. Strips out monetary inflation to show BTC's 'real' appreciation. If this ratio is flat, BTC is merely keeping up with money printing. A rising ratio = genuine value creation. | pro |
oecd-cli-g20-vs-btc | OECD CLI - G20 | OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the G20 aggregate - amplitude-adjusted headline methodology. The index is centred on 100, its long-term trend: a reading above 100 means the indicator sits above trend, below 100 that it sits below trend. That position says nothing on its own about whether activity is rising or falling. Turning points historically precede G20 GDP by 4-8 months, making it a leading macro compass for global risk-on / risk-off regimes that frame Bitcoin cycles. | pro |
oecd-cli-usa-vs-btc | OECD CLI - United States | US-specific Composite Leading Indicator since 1955 - the longest continuous CLI series, spanning multiple business cycles (stagflation 1970s, Volcker disinflation, tech bubble, GFC, COVID, rate-hike 2022). Turning points historically led US recessions and expansions by 6-9 months on average. | pro |
oecd-cli-g7-vs-btc | OECD CLI - G7 | G7 Composite Leading Indicator - aggregates the seven developed economies (US, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada) representing the majority of institutional capital. Cleaner indication than G20 for Bitcoin narratives driven by developed-market liquidity: ETF flows, corporate treasuries, sovereign reserves. | pro |
macro-v2-dollar-cycle-detector | Trade-Weighted Dollar Cycle Phase Detector | Broad trade-weighted dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS) plotted with rolling 5-year ±2σ bands. Provides a long-term reference frame to identify the dollar regime - peak, trough, or transition phase - across multi-year cycles since Bretton Woods 1971. | pro |
macro-v2-oil-btc-correlation | WTI / BTC Correlation 90d | Pearson rolling 90-day correlation between WTI crude oil and BTC daily returns. Above +0.3 = positive correlation (oil and BTC move together). Below -0.15 = weak inverse correlation (oil and BTC tend to move in opposite directions). | free |
macro-v2-trinity-codeEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Code (Macro Cycles) | Trinity proprietary macro-liquidity composite (log scale) - measures the global financial fuel available for risk assets like Bitcoin. Rises during easing phases, falls during tightening. Distinct from PI Trinity Composite Momentum Index (price oscillator) and Cycle Intelligence Trinity Composite Score (Bitcoin halving framework). | performance |
macro-v2-btc-fed-ratio | BTC / Fed Balance Sheet Ratio | Tracks how BTC market valuation evolves relative to Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. Expressed as log10 ratio for multi-cycle readability - a structural macro-liquidity reference for the Bitcoin community since 2018+. Long-term trajectory is structurally rising as BTC appreciates faster than WALCL on average. | pro |
macro-v2-ny-fed-recession-probability | NY Fed Recession Probability | Twelve-month-ahead U.S. recession probability derived from the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield curve spread, using the public Estrella & Hardouvelis 1991 probit methodology calibrated on 1959-2009 historical data. Inversions historically precede effective recessions within 12 months. The 30 percent line is a historical marker : the 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2020 U.S. recessions were each preceded by a peak above it in the preceding 12 months. | pro |
macro-v2-tlbi-trinity-leading-business-indicatorEXCLUSIVE | TLBI - Trinity Leading Business Indicator | Trinity proprietary composite of leading U.S. business cycle indicators, scored 0-100 with the 50 line marking the expansion/contraction boundary. Reads regime in one glance - historically Bitcoin has not sustained complete bull markets while the indicator stays below 50. Functional reference of an institutional U.S. business cycle benchmark. | performance |
macro-v2-corr-btc-dxy | BTC / Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Correlation | Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin daily returns and the daily returns of FRED series DTWEXBGS, the Broad Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index, bounded -1 to +1. This is the Federal Reserve broad trade-weighted index, not the ICE DXY. Historically the relationship has often been inverse: a strengthening dollar tends to coincide with weaker BTC regimes, while dollar downtrends have accompanied risk-on phases. The reading describes the current regime; it does not predict it. | pro |
macro-v2-corr-btc-10y | BTC / 10Y Treasury Correlation | Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin daily returns and daily changes in the 10-Year US Treasury yield, bounded -1 to +1. Maps how BTC has traded relative to the long end of the rates curve across monetary regimes: rate-sensitive phases show sustained non-zero readings, while decoupled phases hover near zero. | pro |
macro-v2-corr-btc-vix | BTC / VIX Correlation | Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and VIX daily returns, bounded -1 to +1. A persistently negative reading classifies BTC alongside risk assets (equity stress pushes BTC down); readings near zero indicate detachment from equity volatility regimes. The historical record lets the data test the safe-haven narrative directly. | pro |
macro-v2-corr-btc-gold | BTC / Gold Correlation | Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and gold daily returns, bounded -1 to +1. A positive correlation indicates a linear co-movement of returns over the window, without identifying its causes; a value near zero indicates a weak linear correlation, without proving the independence of the explanatory factors. Complements the Gold / BTC ratio, which compares levels rather than co-movement. | pro |
macro-v2-corr-btc-m2 | BTC / M2 Correlation | Rolling 26-week Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and US M2 money supply weekly returns, bounded -1 to +1. Computed on a weekly cadence to match the native publication rhythm of M2 (a daily correlation on an interpolated series would be an artifact). Reads how tightly BTC has tracked monetary expansion and contraction phases. | pro |
macro-v2-corr-btc-eth | BTC / ETH Correlation | Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and Ether daily returns, bounded -1 to +1. The structurally high intra-crypto correlation is the baseline; what matters is its variation: compressions toward lower readings historically flag idiosyncratic phases (asset-specific narratives), while returns to elevated readings mark unified market regimes. | pro |
macro-v2-btc-nasdaq-rs-regime | BTC vs Nasdaq - Relative Strength Regime | High-timeframe momentum of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq 100: a 14-week RSI of the weekly BTC/NAS100 ratio, smoothed over 14 weeks. Bounded 0-100 with regime bands calibrated on real historical percentiles. Low extremes are rare (a handful of episodes per decade) and have historically clustered near BTC cycle lows, high extremes near cycle peaks. Answers one question: is BTC historically stretched against the equity benchmark? | pro |
macro-v2-btc-gold-rs-regime | BTC vs Gold - Relative Strength Regime | High-timeframe momentum of Bitcoin against gold: a 14-week RSI of the weekly BTC/gold ratio, smoothed over 14 weeks. Bounded 0-100 with regime bands calibrated on real historical percentiles. Where the Nasdaq read benchmarks BTC as a risk asset, this one benchmarks its monetary store-of-value claim. Low extremes are rare and have historically clustered near BTC cycle lows. Same gold series as the Gold/BTC ratio chart. | pro |
Sovereign reserves
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
sovereign-btc-total | Total Sovereign Bitcoin Reserves | Aggregate BTC held by all tracked governments, expressed as a share of total supply. Combines verified on-chain balances with public aggregator estimates. Unique composite view. | free |
sovereign-btc-by-country | Sovereign BTC by Country | Government Bitcoin holdings broken down by country. Tracks dominant holders (USA from seizures, China estimated, UK estimated, Ukraine from war donations, El Salvador verified purchases, etc.) with confidence badges (Verified on-chain / Estimated aggregator). | pro |
sovereign-btc-vs-price | Sovereign Reserves vs BTC Price | Total government Bitcoin overlaid with BTC price - a correlation no other platform shows. Historical context: Germany's sale of 50K BTC in July 2024 preceded a local bottom. Government selling = additional supply, publicly disclosed and traceable. | pro |
sovereign-btc-leaderboard | Sovereign BTC Leaderboard | Government Bitcoin holders ranked by total BTC. Each country has a confidence badge (✓ Verified on-chain / ~ Estimated) and acquisition type (Seized, Purchased, Mined, Donated). Interactive ranking with USD values. | free |
sovereign-btc-net-change | Government BTC Net Position Change | Daily net change in verified government BTC holdings. Green = accumulation, Red = distribution. Only from verified on-chain addresses (USA, El Salvador, Bhutan). Early warning indicator for government selling pressure. | pro |
sovereign-btc-pct-supply | Sovereign Reserves % of Supply | All government Bitcoin as a percentage of total (21M cap) and circulating supply. Tracks the evolving influence of sovereign holders on Bitcoin's supply dynamics. | pro |
sovereign-btc-by-source | Sovereign BTC by Acquisition Type | Government BTC by how it was acquired: Seized (criminal forfeitures - USA, UK, China), Purchased (strategic reserves - El Salvador, UAE), Mined (sovereign mining - Bhutan, Kazakhstan), Donated (war contributions - Ukraine). Unique strategic breakdown. | pro |
macro-v2-tsbai-compositeEXCLUSIVE | TSBAI - Trinity Sovereign Bitcoin Adoption Index | Composite Trinity proprietary scoring 0-100 the adoption stage of Bitcoin by sovereign States. Aggregates verified holdings magnitude, diffusion across countries, GDP exposure, Tier 1 strategic share, and Rogers Diffusion stage progression. Above 75 = mainstream sovereign adoption. Below 25 = innovators stage early. | free |
macro-v2-sovereign-country-tier-classification | Sovereign Country Tier Classification - Top 5 Holdings | Multi-line breakdown of sovereign Bitcoin holdings across the top 5 institutional countries by tier: Tier 1 strategic (United States - Executive Order March 2025), Tier 2 verified (China + United Kingdom seizures), and Tier 3 mixed (Ukraine donations + El Salvador legal tender). Reveals which jurisdiction concentrates institutional sovereign accumulation. | pro |
macro-v2-sovereign-adoption-stage-exhaustion | Sovereign Adoption Stage - Rogers Diffusion S-Curve | Percentage of UN member states (out of 195) holding verified Bitcoin reserves. Two series displayed : raw cumulative (step-line observed data) and Rogers 1962 Diffusion of Innovations logistic S-curve fit (smoothed sigmoidal projection). Below 2.5% = Innovators stage. 2.5-16% = Early Adopters. 16-50% = Early Majority approach. Identifies sovereign adoption stage exhaustion vs structural growth. | pro |
macro-v2-sovereign-vs-corporate-comparison | Sovereign vs Corporate Bitcoin Holdings | Multi-line comparison of aggregate sovereign holdings versus aggregate corporate (MicroStrategy + others) Bitcoin holdings over time. Shows which institutional class leads accumulation at each phase - corporate-led 2020-2024, then a corporate curve still climbing after 2025 while sovereign holdings stay broadly flat. Cross-rubric institutional context essential for cycle analysis. | free |
macro-v2-sovereign-strategic-reserve-gdp-pct | Strategic Reserve as % GDP - Top Sovereign Holders | Multi-line breakdown of strategic Bitcoin reserve as percentage of nominal GDP for the three top-impact sovereign holders : El Salvador (legal tender 2021, ~1.7% GDP), Bhutan (strategic mining 2022+, small economy with relatively large BTC exposure), and Ukraine (war-driven seizures + donations 2022+, ~2% GDP). Institutional macro-impact metric. | pro |
macro-v2-sovereign-verified-vs-estimated-trust | Sovereign Trust Score - Verified On-Chain % | Trust transparency score (0-100%) measuring the share of sovereign Bitcoin holdings verified on-chain via public Blockstream wallets versus estimated via aggregator data. Above 80% = high transparency regime (post US Marshals public seizure disclosures). Below 50% = low transparency (typical pre-2018 era before Bulgaria seizure disclosure). | pro |
macro-v2-sovereign-acquisition-rate-trend | Sovereign Acquisition Rate - Annual | Annual aggregate sovereign Bitcoin acquisition rate (BTC accumulated per year) histogram. Captures milestone events: Bulgaria 2018 disclosure of 2014 seizure (~213K BTC), El Salvador 2021+ legal tender purchases, US Strategic Reserve EO 2025+. Negative bars = sovereign sales (Germany BKA 2024 ~50K). | pro |
Yields & dollar
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
real-yields-vs-btc | Real Yields (TIPS 10Y) vs BTC | 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield, overlaid with BTC price. Read as an opportunity-cost hypothesis: periods of lower real yields have often coincided with Bitcoin strength, while this chart demonstrates no causal link. | pro |
dxy-inverse-vs-btc | Dollar Index (Inverse) vs BTC | Trade-weighted US Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) on an inverted vertical axis (higher = weaker dollar), overlaid with BTC price. A weakening dollar can form a favourable backdrop for Bitcoin, depending on the period. The graduations keep the true index values. | free |
gold-btc-ratio | Gold (PAXG) / BTC Ratio | How many bitcoins one ounce of gold buys, using PAXG (a token backed one-to-one by physical gold) as the ounce and the BTC price as the denominator. A rising ratio means PAXG is outperforming BTC over the window; a falling ratio means BTC is outperforming PAXG. The ratio measures relative performance, not the flows behind it: on its own it demonstrates neither a move toward traditional safe havens nor anything about the digital gold thesis. History starts with the first PAXG/USD quote served (29 October 2019). | free |
copper-gold-ratio | Copper / Gold Ratio (Risk Appetite) | Copper (industrial demand) divided by Gold (safe haven). Rising ratio = global economy expanding, risk-on. Falling ratio = contraction, risk-off. A leading macro health indicator. The gold leg is the PAXG proxy (one token = one ounce); the copper leg is a monthly reference price from World Bank (The Pink Sheet), released early in the following month. | pro |
cb-balance-sheets | Central Bank Balance Sheets (Fed + ECB + BOJ) | Total assets of the three largest central banks overlaid - Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. See QE/QT cycles across regions simultaneously. | pro |
cb-divergence-index | Central Bank Divergence Index | Count of central banks in easing stance minus those in tightening stance, across 40+ countries (BIS data). Positive = global easing wave (bullish for risk assets). A Trinity exclusive using BIS SDMX data covering 50+ central banks since 1946. | pro |
yield-curve-vs-btc | Yield Curve vs BTC | US Treasury yield spreads (10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M), in percentage points, with BTC price overlay. The exit from inversion is the passage of a spread from below zero to above zero: the 10-year yield then exceeds the shorter yield. | pro |
yield-curve-duration | Yield Curve Inversion Duration Tracker | Consecutive days the 10Y-2Y spread has remained inverted (below zero). The 2022-2024 inversion was the longest in modern history. A Trinity exclusive visualization. | pro |
vix-vs-btc | VIX (Fear Index) vs BTC | CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) - the market's 'fear gauge' - overlaid with BTC price. VIX spikes above 30 have historically preceded or coincided with BTC cycle lows. | free |
fed-funds-vs-btc | Fed Funds Rate vs BTC | Federal Funds effective rate - the most important interest rate in the world - overlaid with BTC price. The two series are drawn together for comparison, each on its own scale. | pro |
breakeven-inflation-vs-btc | Breakeven Inflation (10Y) vs BTC | 10-Year breakeven inflation rate (the market's expectation of average inflation over the next decade, derived from the gap between nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields) with BTC overlay. The two series are overlaid using separate vertical axes: this chart does not demonstrate that Bitcoin hedges inflation. | pro |
boj-call-rate-vs-btc | BOJ Policy Rate vs BTC | Bank of Japan policy rate, published daily by the BIS. Covers ZIRP since 1999, NIRP (negative rates) 2016-2024, and the post-2024 normalisation regime. The spread between this rate and the Fed funds rate drives the JPY carry trade intensity, a key liquidity channel for global risk assets including Bitcoin. | pro |
usd-jpy-vs-btc | USD/JPY vs BTC | Daily USD/JPY exchange rate (yen per dollar) since 1971. Primary transmission channel of the JPY carry trade: a weak JPY (rising USD/JPY) typically indicates loose BOJ policy relative to the Fed, which funds leveraged positions in global risk assets. JPY is the second-largest DXY component (~13.6%) and one of the most important funding currencies for institutional Bitcoin positions. | pro |
macro-v2-trinity-yield-curve-compositeEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Yield Curve Composite (TYCC) | Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 that condenses the yield curve and dollar regime into a single reading, comparable across multi-cycle regimes. Methodology not disclosed. | performance |
macro-v2-real-yields-tips-multi-tenor | Real Yields TIPS Multi-Tenor (5y / 10y / 30y) | TIPS real yields panel across 3 maturities (5-year, 10-year, 30-year). Negative real yields historically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. | pro |
macro-v2-carry-trade-detectionEXCLUSIVE | Carry Trade Detection | Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 that summarises currency carry trade conditions. Its construction is not disclosed. | performance |
macro-v2-us-eu-10y-yield-differential | US-EU 10Y Yield Differential | 10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year EUR benchmark yield. The series describes that yield gap and nothing more; it does not measure capital flows. | pro |
macro-v2-us-jp-10y-yield-differential | US-JP 10Y Yield Differential | 10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year JGB yield. Historically the largest cross-region differential and a primary driver of yen carry trade activity. | pro |
macro-v2-inflation-breakeven-10y | Inflation Breakeven 10Y | 10-year breakeven inflation rate (nominal Treasury yield minus TIPS real yield). It reflects market-implied inflation expectations over the next 10 years together with risk and liquidity premia embedded in the two legs; it is not a pure inflation forecast. | pro |
macro-v2-trade-weighted-dollar-index | Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (TWEX) | FRED Trade-Weighted Dollar Index across a 26-currency basket (DTWEXBGS broad nominal, daily). A multilateral measure of dollar strength versus key trading partners. | pro |
macro-v2-dxy-volatility-index | DXY Volatility Index | Annualised 30-day rolling volatility of the broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index. Captures dollar volatility regimes (calm vs stressed). | pro |
macro-v2-forward-rate-implied-path | Short-Term Treasury Yields (1, 3 and 6 Months) | US Treasury yields at 1, 3 and 6 months, in percent, from FRED (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS6MO). Compare the levels and movements of these three maturities over time. | pro |
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metrics listed do not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.