Macro intelligence
Each metric in the macro intelligence rubric ships with a bilingual education sheet. Click any identifier to open the detailed page (definition, how to read, key zones, historical context).
Corporate treasuries
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
corp-btc-leaderboard | Corporate BTC Total Holdings | Aggregated total Bitcoin holdings of public companies tracked over time. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) historically drives the majority of the curve, with a growing cohort of corporate accumulators contributing to the structural climb. | free |
corp-btc-by-country | Corporate BTC by Country | BTC holdings aggregated by country of incorporation, rendered as a horizontal-bar ranking snapshot. The US dominates by a wide margin, followed by Japan, Canada and a long tail of jurisdictions. Shows the geographic concentration of corporate Bitcoin adoption at the latest snapshot. | free |
corp-btc-pct-supply | Corporate BTC % of Supply | Aggregated corporate Bitcoin holdings expressed as a percentage of total mined supply, plotted over time. Strategy alone captures the bulk of the corporate share. When combined with ETFs, institutional supply absorption becomes structurally significant. | pro |
corp-btc-pnl | Corporate BTC P&L Distribution | Unrealized profit/loss as a percentage of entry value for the top 10 corporate Bitcoin holders, each plotted as an individual time-series line. Common normalized scale lets you compare deep-gain veterans (Strategy +200%+) against vulnerable late entrants in a single view. | pro |
corp-btc-dominance | Corporate BTC Dominance | Strategy's share of total corporate Bitcoin holdings — the largest single-issuer concentration in the corporate BTC universe — rendered as a single time-series percentage. A declining ratio marks healthy broadening of corporate adoption as new entrants accumulate; a rising ratio indicates the trend remains structurally dependent on one mega-holder. Top 2/3/10 ranks remain available in the tooltip drill-down. | free |
corp-btc-miners | Corporate BTC Miners Holdings | BTC holdings of major publicly listed mining companies: Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, Hut 8, IREN, and others. Miners who HODL vs sell create different supply pressure dynamics. | pro |
corp-btc-timeline | Corporate BTC Holdings Timeline | Aggregated total Bitcoin holdings of public companies tracked over time. Historical data accumulates progressively — the longer Trinity runs, the richer this chart becomes. The step-up in late 2025 reflects the Strategy 600,000 BTC milestone (Nov 2025), annotated in the events overlay. | performance |
corp-btc-balance-changes | Corporate BTC Balance Changes | Daily balance changes (buys/sells) detected from snapshot deltas. Green bars = net corporate accumulation, red bars = net distribution. Spikes often correspond to major corporate announcements. | performance |
corp-btc-vs-price | Corporate BTC vs Price | Total aggregated corporate BTC holdings overlaid with BTC price. Reveals whether corporates buy the dip or chase the pump — a key indication for smart money behavior analysis. | pro |
corp-btc-accumulation-rate | Corporate BTC Accumulation Rate | Rolling 30-day average of net BTC added or removed by all corporates combined. Smooths out noise from individual transactions to reveal the underlying institutional accumulation trend. | performance |
corp-btc-new-entrants | Corporate BTC New Entrants | Number of new public companies adding BTC to their treasury over time. A rising count indicates broadening institutional adoption beyond the early movers like Strategy and Tesla. | pro |
macro-tcbci-corporate-conviction-indexEXCLUSIVE | TCBCI — Trinity Corporate Conviction Index | Composite Trinity proprietary scoring 0-100 the conviction of corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin. Aggregates total corporate holdings growth, new entrants velocity, geographic diversification, MSTR premium resilience, and sector diversification. Above 65 = strong adoption. Below 35 = weakening conviction. | free |
macro-corp-country-adoption-heatmap-v2 | Corporate Adoption — Top 3 Country Decomposition | Multi-line breakdown of total corporate Bitcoin holdings across the top three regulatory jurisdictions tracking corporate balance sheet exposure: United States, Canada, and the rest of the world. Reveals which jurisdiction concentrates corporate accumulation and how flows rotate geographically through cycles. | pro |
macro-corp-new-entrants-velocity | Corporate New Entrants Velocity | Counter of new corporate entities adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet over a rolling window. Captures adoption diffusion velocity. High readings reflect FOMO-driven institutional waves; declining readings mark consolidation phases or post-cycle exhaustion. Useful as a leading adoption indicator. | pro |
macro-corp-mstr-premium-nav-v2 | MSTR Premium NAV | Premium percentage of MicroStrategy market capitalization above its underlying Bitcoin holdings book value. Tracks the equity premium investors pay for MSTR's leveraged Bitcoin treasury exposure vs holding spot BTC directly. Healthy in low-double-digit territory; extreme premiums historically marked market tops; discounts marked cycle bottoms. | pro |
ETF flows
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
etf-btc-daily-flows | ETF BTC Daily Net Flows | Aggregated daily net flows across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, ARKB, BITB, and others). Calculated from changes in shares outstanding × NAV. Positive bars = net institutional buying. | free |
etf-btc-cumulative | ETF BTC Cumulative Net Flows | Running total of all daily net flows since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs (January 11, 2024). The slope of this line tells you the pace of institutional adoption — steeper = faster inflows. | pro |
etf-btc-by-issuer | ETF BTC Flows by Issuer | Daily net flows broken down by the three largest US spot Bitcoin ETFs: BlackRock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC), Grayscale (GBTC). Stacked diverging bars: positive contributions stack upward from zero, negative outflows stack downward — the net daily flow reads off the topmost extent. GBTC outflows vs IBIT/FBTC inflows tell the story of the Great Rotation. | pro |
etf-btc-holdings | ETF BTC Total Holdings | Total Bitcoin held by all US spot ETFs combined, measured in BTC. Shows the cumulative supply absorption — Bitcoin permanently removed from the open market by institutional custodians. | pro |
etf-btc-pct-supplyEXCLUSIVE | ETF BTC % of Total Supply | Percentage of Bitcoin's total circulating supply held by US spot ETFs. A Trinity exclusive. When this metric rises rapidly, it indicates a supply squeeze — demand from traditional finance is outpacing new supply from mining. | performance |
etf-eth-daily-flows | ETF ETH Daily Net Flows | Aggregated daily net flows across all US spot Ethereum ETFs. Same methodology as BTC ETF flows. Useful for comparing institutional appetite for ETH vs BTC. | pro |
etf-eth-cumulative | ETF ETH Cumulative Net Flows | Running total of all daily net flows since the launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs (July 23, 2024). Compare the adoption curve with BTC ETFs to understand the ETH institutional demand gap. | pro |
etf-btc-cumulative-by-issuer | ETF BTC Cumulative Flows by Issuer | Running sum of daily net flows per top-3 issuer (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC) since spot BTC ETF launch. The Great Rotation in one chart — IBIT climbs while GBTC drops below zero as legacy holders rotated into lower-fee products. | pro |
etf-btc-issuer-market-shareEXCLUSIVE | ETF BTC Issuer Market Share | 30-day rolling share of total net flows captured by each top-3 issuer. Smooths single-day noise and reveals concentration dynamics — when IBIT exceeds 60% share, the largest institutional allocators are driving the cycle. | pro |
etf-btc-flow-vs-miningEXCLUSIVE | ETF BTC Flow vs Mining Supply | Daily ETF BTC absorption as a percentage of new mining supply that day. Above 100%: ETFs are absorbing more BTC than miners produce — a structural supply squeeze. The halving-aware divisor uses the authoritative Trinity halving schedule. | performance |
etf-btc-adoption-curve | ETF BTC Adoption Curve vs GLD / QQQ | Aggregate BTC ETF AUM growth from the US spot ETF launch (January 11, 2024) indexed at 100, benchmarked against Gold ETF (GLD) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) over the same window. QQQ is a closer tech-growth risk proxy than broad S&P. Pure historical context — no forecast, no investment advice. | pro |
etf-btc-canada-holdings | ETF BTC Canada Holdings (Purpose) | Approximate BTC held by Canada's Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC.TO) — the first North American spot BTC ETF, launched on 2021-02-18, nearly three years before the US launch. Reconstructed from daily close × current shares outstanding ÷ BTC spot price. | pro |
etf-btc-net-drainEXCLUSIVE | ETF BTC Net Drain vs Mining Supply | Cumulative BTC absorbed by US spot ETFs minus cumulative new mining supply from the US spot ETF launch (January 11, 2024). A positive reading means ETFs have collectively taken out more BTC than miners produced over the window — the structural supply squeeze in one number. | performance |
etf-btc-europe-aum | ETF BTC Europe ETPs AUM | Aggregate AUM of Europe's three largest spot BTC ETPs: 21Shares Bitcoin ETP on Xetra (BTCE.DE), WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin on LSE (BTCW.L), and 21Shares Bitcoin ETP on SIX Swiss (ABTC.SW). ABTC.SW is the first regulated spot BTC product in the world (listed 2018-11-21), more than 5 years before the US launch. | pro |
etf-btc-asia-pacific-aum | ETF BTC Asia-Pacific AUM | Aggregate AUM of Hong Kong's three spot BTC ETFs — ChinaAMC CSOP (3042.HK), Harvest (3439.HK), Bosera HashKey (3008.HK) — all launched 2024-04-30 — plus Australia's VanEck Bitcoin ETF (VBTC.AX, launched 2024-06-20). | pro |
etf-btc-global-coverageEXCLUSIVE | ETF BTC Global Coverage (US + CA + EU + AP) | Meta-aggregate AUM of every spot BTC ETF Trinity tracks across four regions: United States (11 issuers), Canada (Purpose), Europe (3 ETPs on Xetra/LSE/SIX), Asia-Pacific (3 HK + 1 Australia). A single daily line showing the entire institutional BTC wrapper universe observable via public data. | performance |
etf-sol-daily-flows | ETF SOL Daily Net Flows | Aggregated daily net flows across the six US spot Solana ETFs: Bitwise (BSOL), Grayscale (GSOL), VanEck (VSOL), Fidelity (FSOL), 21Shares (TSOL), and Franklin Templeton (SOEZ). All six are staking-enabled — they earn the SOL protocol's ~5-7% annual yield and pass most of it to shareholders. Positive bars = net institutional buying; negative bars = net redemptions. | pro |
etf-sol-aum | ETF SOL Aggregate AUM | Aggregate USD assets under management across the six US spot Solana ETFs. Reconstructed from daily close × implicit shares outstanding (netAssets / navPrice fallback) with cross-ticker forward-fill and 5-day smoothing for readability. The long-run slope measures institutional SOL wrapper adoption. | pro |
macro-tehs-etf-health-scoreEXCLUSIVE | TEHS — Trinity ETF Health Score | Composite Trinity proprietary scoring 0-100 the institutional health of the Bitcoin ETF complex. Aggregates 5 inputs: 30-day flow EMA, AUM growth Y/Y, premium-discount inverse, inflow streak, issuer concentration inverse. Above 60 = healthy (sustained inflows + low premium + diversified issuers). Below 30 = stressed (outflows + high discount + concentration). | free |
macro-etf-aum-growth-rate-v2 | Aggregate ETF AUM (Absolute, Log) | Absolute aggregate AUM of all Bitcoin spot ETFs across US, Europe, Hong Kong / Asia-Pacific, and Canada jurisdictions, in USD. Log-scale rendering captures multi-order-of-magnitude growth from sub-billion (2020-2023) to >$100B post-spot-launch (2024+). Direct lecture of institutional capital cumulated into ETF wrappers. | pro |
macro-etf-premium-discount-nav-by-issuer | ETF Premium / Discount vs NAV — Aggregate Average | Aggregate average premium or discount of US Bitcoin spot ETFs to their net asset value (NAV). Persistent premiums indicate strong primary market demand exceeding arbitrage capacity; persistent discounts reflect redemption pressure or arbitrage friction. Healthy market trades within ±0.3% of NAV. | pro |
macro-etf-cross-jurisdiction-flow-comparison | ETF Market Share by Jurisdiction | Daily market share (% of global ETF AUM) for the three jurisdictions with sufficient historical data: United States (spot Jan 2024+), Europe (ETN/ETP Jun 2020+), and Canada (spot Mar 2021+). The three lines sum to 100% each day, exposing the institutional regulatory shift: Canada/Europe dominant pre-2024 → US sweep post-spot-launch. Hong Kong / Asia-Pacific (Apr 2024+, <1% global share) excluded for clarity. | pro |
macro-etf-hhi-issuer-concentration | ETF HHI Issuer Concentration | Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) measuring concentration across the top US Bitcoin ETF issuers. Range 0-10000: below 1500 = competitive market, 1500-2500 = moderately concentrated, above 2500 = highly concentrated. Tracks whether dominance is consolidating around BlackRock IBIT or distributed across BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale. | pro |
macro-etf-net-flow-zscore-volatility-adjusted | ETF Net Flow Z-Score (Volatility-Adjusted) | Daily aggregate net flow standardized as a Z-score against its 90-day rolling mean and volatility, clipped at ±5σ. Above +2 = exceptional inflow day in historical context; below -2 = exceptional outflow day. Filters out ordinary noise to isolate institutional capitulation or euphoria episodes. | pro |
macro-etf-cumulative-days-net-inflow-streak | ETF Cumulative Days Net Inflow Streak | Counter of consecutive days where the aggregate Bitcoin spot ETF complex experienced net positive flows. Resets to zero on any net negative day. Long streaks (≥10 days) historically coincide with sustained accumulation phases; reset days frequently mark short-term tops or news-driven redemption events. | pro |
macro-etf-realized-vs-spot-btc-premium | ETF Realized vs Spot BTC Premium | Spread between cumulative US ETF capital invested and the current spot value of held Bitcoin. Negative readings indicate ETF holders are above water (BTC has appreciated above their average buy price); positive readings indicate ETF holders are underwater. Useful to gauge aggregate institutional cost basis vs market price. | performance |
macro-eth-btc-etf-flow-ratio-rotation | ETH/BTC ETF Flow Ratio Rotation | Ratio of cumulative ETH ETF flows to BTC ETF flows. Above 0.15 indicates ETH momentum capturing institutional rotation away from BTC dominance; below 0.05 indicates BTC reasserting dominance. Useful to time relative rotation between the two largest crypto assets within institutional ETF wrappers. | performance |
Global liquidity
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
global-m2-vs-btc | Global M2 Aggregate vs BTC | Developed-markets broad-money composite (US M2 + EU/UK/CA/AU/CH M3) converted to USD, overlaid with BTC price shifted by ~70 days (configurable lead). The US component is refreshed monthly; non-US components reflect the most recent OECD broad-money release via FRED. Japan M2 is excluded until a live BOJ source is integrated. | pro |
us-net-liquidity | US Net Liquidity Index | Federal Reserve balance sheet minus Treasury General Account minus Reverse Repo facility. The true measure of available liquidity in the US financial system. | free |
global-net-liquidityEXCLUSIVE | Global Net Liquidity (US + ECB + BOJ) | Combined net liquidity of the three largest central banks (Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan), all converted to USD. A Trinity exclusive composite combining FX-adjusted balance sheets from FRED, ECB SDMX and BOJ APIs. | performance |
m2-yoy-vs-btc | M2 YoY Rate of Change vs BTC | Year-over-year percentage change in US M2 money supply, overlaid with BTC price. Rising M2 growth historically precedes BTC rallies by 2-3 months. | free |
global-liquidity-impulse | Global Liquidity Impulse | Second derivative (rate of change of the rate of change) of combined central bank balance sheets. Measures the ACCELERATION of liquidity, not just the level — the earliest possible indication of regime shifts. | performance |
exchange-total-reservesEXCLUSIVE | Exchange Total Reserves (Proof of Reserves) | Aggregate on-chain reserves across 10 major crypto exchanges, sourced directly from official Proof of Reserves APIs. Includes total reserves, clean reserves (excluding exchange native tokens), and stablecoin reserves. Declining reserves may indication withdrawals or loss of confidence. | pro |
exchange-reserves-topEXCLUSIVE | Exchange Reserves by Exchange | Individual reserves of the top 10 crypto exchanges by total assets. Compare Binance, Bybit, Bitfinex, Deribit, Gate.io, and others over time. Identifies concentration risk and tracks reserve shifts between platforms. | pro |
exchange-stablecoin-reservesEXCLUSIVE | Exchange Stablecoin Reserves | Total stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI, FDUSD, etc.) held across major exchanges. Stablecoin reserves represent 'dry powder' — capital ready to buy. Rising stablecoin reserves on exchanges are historically bullish as they indication capital waiting on the sidelines. | pro |
us-debt-service-cost-vs-btc | US Debt Service Cost vs BTC | Weighted average interest rate on Total Interest-bearing Debt (%) combined with total monthly interest expense on the public debt (USD). Tracks the fiscal cost of the US debt stock and its trajectory as Fed policy tightens or eases. A rising debt service burden is a structural macro headwind that conditions fiscal space, crowds out discretionary spending, and ultimately shapes the liquidity backdrop for BTC. | pro |
us-tga-daily-balance | US Treasury General Account (TGA) Daily | US Treasury General Account daily closing balance in USD. The TGA is the operational cash account held by the Treasury at the Federal Reserve — rising TGA drains reserves from the banking system (liquidity bearish), falling TGA injects liquidity back (bullish). Daily resolution complements the weekly FRED WTREGEN series used by the Net Liquidity composite. | pro |
us-public-debt-total | US Public Debt Outstanding (Total + Breakdown) | Total US federal public debt outstanding (USD) split between debt held by the public (marketable + non-marketable to external holders) and intragovernmental holdings (Social Security trust fund, etc.). Daily series since 1993 — the single most-cited aggregate in the fiscal-dominance narrative. | pro |
ecb-cpi-hicp-vs-btc | Eurozone CPI HICP YoY vs BTC | Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) annual rate of change for the Euro area, as published by the ECB and Eurosystem National Statistical Institutes. Monthly series since 1997-01. The reference inflation gauge for the Eurozone — the metric the ECB targets at 2% — and a direct test of the BTC inflation-hedge thesis when juxtaposed against the BTC price overlay. | pro |
ecb-deposit-facility-rate-vs-btc | ECB Deposit Facility Rate vs BTC | Daily ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) — the rate banks earn on overnight excess reserves at the Eurosystem and the de-facto floor of the ECB's interest-rate corridor. Daily series since 1999-01-01. Negative from June 2014 to July 2022 (NIRP era). The single most-watched ECB policy lever and a direct Eurozone analogue to the Fed Funds rate. | pro |
ecb-total-assets-vs-btc | ECB Eurosystem Total Assets vs BTC | Monthly Eurosystem Total Assets/Liabilities consolidated balance sheet (EUR) since 1997-09. Captures the full ECB QE/QT policy footprint — the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) launched in 2015, the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) launched in 2020, and the post-2022 Quantitative Tightening roll-off. The Eurozone companion to the FRED WALCL series for the global-QE narrative. | pro |
eur-usd-vs-btc | EUR/USD Exchange Rate vs BTC | Daily ECB reference rate USD per EUR since 1999-01. EUR/USD is the most-traded currency pair worldwide and the dominant component of the US Dollar Index (DXY ~57.6% weight). Mechanical link: when EUR weakens versus USD, DXY mechanically rises, and BTC has historically faced a headwind. The chart isolates the EUR/USD leg of the dollar story. | pro |
ecb-m3-yoy-vs-btc | Eurozone M3 Annual Growth vs BTC | Monthly annual growth rate of the Euro area broad monetary aggregate M3 since 1981-01 (legacy Bundesbank data harmonized into the Eurosystem series after 1999). M3 is the ECB's primary monetary reference and the Eurozone counterpart of US M2. Currency-debasement narrative gauge: rapid M3 expansion is structurally supportive for fixed-supply assets like BTC. | pro |
boj-total-assets-vs-btc | BOJ Total Assets vs BTC | Bank of Japan total balance sheet (assets) in JPY, monthly since 1998. The BOJ is the third-largest central bank balance sheet globally (~¥700 trillion). Its QQE (2013+) and Yield Curve Control (2016+) regimes made it the boldest monetary experiment of the post-GFC era. BOJ balance sheet expansion funds the JPY carry trade, which historically has been a tailwind for global risk assets including Bitcoin. | pro |
macro-v2-trinity-liquidity-compositeEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Liquidity Composite (TLC) | Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 capturing the macro liquidity tide via 5 components: Fed Net Liquidity + Global M2 YoY + Liquidity Impulse 2nd derivative + USD reserve status + China credit impulse proxy. | performance |
macro-v2-net-liquidity-multi-cbEXCLUSIVE | Net Liquidity Multi-CB (Fed + ECB + BoJ) | Aggregated central bank net liquidity in USD billions: Fed Net Liquidity (Federal Reserve balance sheet (total assets) - TGA - RRP) + ECB Total Assets + BoJ Total Assets, all converted to USD via daily FX rates. | performance |
macro-v2-liquidity-impulse-2nd-derivative | Liquidity Impulse — 2nd Derivative | Second derivative of Fed Net Liquidity (90-day window) measuring acceleration or deceleration of liquidity flows. Positive readings indicate accelerating liquidity injections, negative readings indicate decelerating injections or active drain. | pro |
macro-v2-reserve-currency-status | USD Reserve Currency Status | USD share of global FX reserves proxied via Trade-Weighted Dollar Index percentile rank. High readings reflect strong dollar demand from official institutions; low readings suggest reserve diversification away from USD. | pro |
macro-v2-eurodollar-90d-futures | Eurodollar 90-day Forward (SOFR proxy) | 90-day USD funding cost forward rate proxied via SOFR + DTB3 spread (Eurodollar futures deprecated post-2023). Captures the implied short-term USD funding pressure for the next quarter. | pro |
macro-v2-fed-rrp-balance | Fed Reverse Repo (RRP) Balance | Federal Reserve Reverse Repo facility balance in USD billions. RRP usage drains excess reserves from the banking system; falling balances reflect cash redeployment into risk assets — historically a tailwind for crypto and equities. | pro |
macro-v2-treasury-general-account | Treasury General Account (TGA) Balance | U.S. Treasury checking account at the Federal Reserve in USD billions. Rising TGA drains liquidity from the private sector (Treasury collecting cash); falling TGA injects liquidity into the system. A primary lever monitored during debt ceiling resolutions. | free |
Macro cycles
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
dollar-cycle-detectorEXCLUSIVE | Dollar Cycle Phase Detector | Algorithmic detection of the current dollar cycle phase using moving averages, rate of change, and standard deviation bands on the trade-weighted dollar index. Dollar weakness phases have historically been the strongest periods for Bitcoin. | performance |
oil-btc-correlation | Oil vs BTC Correlation | Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between WTI Crude Oil log-returns and BTC log-returns, bounded in [-1, +1]. Positive values indicate a risk-on regime where BTC trades with the commodity complex; negative values indicate decoupling and a 'digital gold' narrative. | pro |
the-trinity-codeEXCLUSIVE | The Trinity Code | Trinity Insights proprietary composite synthesizing global monetary expansion against the restraining forces of dollar strength and long-term yields. When the Trinity Code rises, monetary expansion dominates — the flagship indication of macro tailwinds for Bitcoin. | performance |
btc-fed-ratio | BTC / Fed Balance Sheet Ratio | Bitcoin market cap (or price) divided by the Fed's total assets. Strips out monetary inflation to show BTC's 'real' appreciation. If this ratio is flat, BTC is merely keeping up with money printing. A rising ratio = genuine value creation. | pro |
oecd-cli-g20-vs-btc | OECD CLI — G20 | OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the G20 aggregate — amplitude-adjusted headline methodology. Index centred on 100 (long-term trend): above 100 = expansion phase, below 100 = contraction phase. Turning points historically precede G20 GDP by 4-8 months, making it a leading macro compass for global risk-on / risk-off regimes that frame Bitcoin cycles. | pro |
oecd-cli-usa-vs-btc | OECD CLI — United States | US-specific Composite Leading Indicator since 1955 — the longest continuous CLI series, spanning multiple business cycles (stagflation 1970s, Volcker disinflation, tech bubble, GFC, COVID, rate-hike 2022). Turning points historically led US recessions and expansions by 6-9 months on average. | pro |
oecd-cli-g7-vs-btc | OECD CLI — G7 | G7 Composite Leading Indicator — aggregates the seven developed economies (US, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada) representing the majority of institutional capital. Cleaner indication than G20 for Bitcoin narratives driven by developed-market liquidity: ETF flows, corporate treasuries, sovereign reserves. | pro |
macro-v2-dollar-cycle-detector | DXY Cycle Phase Detector | DXY trade-weighted dollar index plotted with rolling 5-year ±2σ bands. Provides a long-term reference frame to identify dollar regime — peak, trough, or transition phase — across multi-year cycles since Bretton Woods 1971. | pro |
macro-v2-oil-btc-correlation | WTI / BTC Correlation 90d | Pearson rolling 90-day correlation between WTI crude oil and BTC daily returns. Above +0.6 = strong risk-on regime (oil and BTC move together). Below -0.3 = decoupling regime (BTC behaves independently from commodity risk). | free |
macro-v2-trinity-codeEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Code (Macro Cycles) | Trinity proprietary macro-liquidity composite (M2 / DXY × 10Y, log scale) — measures the global financial fuel available for risk assets like Bitcoin. Rises during easing phases, falls during tightening. Distinct from PI Trinity Composite Momentum Index (price oscillator) and Cycle Intelligence Trinity Composite Score (Bitcoin halving framework). | performance |
macro-v2-btc-fed-ratio | BTC / Fed Balance Sheet Ratio | Tracks how BTC market valuation evolves relative to Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. Expressed as log10 ratio for multi-cycle readability — a structural macro-liquidity reference for the Bitcoin community since 2018+. Long-term trajectory is structurally rising as BTC appreciates faster than WALCL on average. | pro |
macro-v2-ny-fed-recession-probability | NY Fed Recession Probability | Twelve-month-ahead U.S. recession probability derived from the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield curve spread, using the public Estrella & Hardouvelis 1991 probit methodology calibrated on 1959-2009 historical data. Inversions historically precede effective recessions within 12 months. | pro |
macro-v2-tlbi-trinity-leading-business-indicatorEXCLUSIVE | TLBI — Trinity Leading Business Indicator | Trinity proprietary composite of leading U.S. business cycle indicators, scored 0-100 with the 50 line marking the expansion/contraction boundary. Reads regime in one glance — historically Bitcoin has not sustained complete bull markets while the indicator stays below 50. Functional reference of the an institutional U.S. business cycle benchmark. | performance |
Sovereign reserves
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
sovereign-btc-total | Total Sovereign Bitcoin Reserves | Aggregate BTC held by all tracked governments, expressed as a share of total supply. Combines verified on-chain balances with public aggregator estimates. Unique composite view. | free |
sovereign-btc-by-countryEXCLUSIVE | Sovereign BTC by Country | Government Bitcoin holdings broken down by country. Tracks dominant holders (USA from seizures, China estimated, UK estimated, Ukraine from war donations, El Salvador verified purchases, etc.) with confidence badges (Verified on-chain / Estimated aggregator). | pro |
sovereign-btc-vs-priceEXCLUSIVE | Sovereign Reserves vs BTC Price | Total government Bitcoin overlaid with BTC price — a correlation no other platform shows. Key insight: Germany's 50K BTC dump in July 2024 preceded a local bottom. Government selling = potential contrarian indication. | pro |
sovereign-btc-leaderboard | Sovereign BTC Leaderboard | Government Bitcoin holders ranked by total BTC. Each country has a confidence badge (✓ Verified on-chain / ~ Estimated) and acquisition type (Seized, Purchased, Mined, Donated). Interactive ranking with USD values. | free |
sovereign-btc-net-changeEXCLUSIVE | Government BTC Net Position Change | Daily net change in verified government BTC holdings. Green = accumulation, Red = distribution. Only from verified on-chain addresses (USA, El Salvador, Bhutan). Early warning indicator for government selling pressure. | pro |
sovereign-btc-pct-supplyEXCLUSIVE | Sovereign Reserves % of Supply | All government Bitcoin as a percentage of total (21M cap) and circulating supply. Tracks the evolving influence of sovereign holders on Bitcoin's supply dynamics. | pro |
sovereign-btc-by-sourceEXCLUSIVE | Sovereign BTC by Acquisition Type | Government BTC by how it was acquired: Seized (criminal forfeitures — USA, UK, China), Purchased (strategic reserves — El Salvador, UAE), Mined (sovereign mining — Bhutan, Kazakhstan), Donated (war contributions — Ukraine). Unique strategic breakdown. | performance |
macro-v2-tsbai-compositeEXCLUSIVE | TSBAI — Trinity Sovereign Bitcoin Adoption Index | Composite Trinity proprietary scoring 0-100 the adoption stage of Bitcoin by sovereign States. Aggregates verified holdings magnitude, country diffusion count, GDP-weighted exposure, Tier 1 strategic share, and Rogers Diffusion stage progression. Above 75 = mainstream sovereign adoption. Below 25 = innovators stage early. | free |
macro-v2-sovereign-country-tier-classification | Sovereign Country Tier Classification — Top 5 Holdings | Multi-line breakdown of sovereign Bitcoin holdings across the top 5 institutional countries by tier: Tier 1 strategic (United States — Executive Order March 2025), Tier 2 verified (China + United Kingdom seizures), and Tier 3 mixed (Ukraine donations + El Salvador legal tender). Reveals which jurisdiction concentrates institutional sovereign accumulation. | pro |
macro-v2-sovereign-adoption-stage-exhaustion | Sovereign Adoption Stage — Rogers Diffusion S-Curve | Percentage of UN member states (out of 195) holding verified Bitcoin reserves. Two series displayed : raw cumulative (step-line observed data) and Rogers 1962 Diffusion of Innovations logistic S-curve fit (smoothed sigmoidal projection). Below 2.5% = Innovators stage. 2.5-16% = Early Adopters. 16-50% = Early Majority approach. Identifies sovereign adoption stage exhaustion vs structural growth. | performance |
macro-v2-sovereign-vs-corporate-comparison | Sovereign vs Corporate Bitcoin Holdings | Multi-line comparison of aggregate sovereign holdings versus aggregate corporate (MicroStrategy + others) Bitcoin holdings over time. Reveals which institutional class drives accumulation — corporate-led 2020-2024 vs sovereign-led post-2025 EO Strategic Reserve. Cross-rubric institutional context essential for cycle analysis. | free |
macro-v2-sovereign-strategic-reserve-gdp-pct | Strategic Reserve as % GDP — Top Sovereign Holders | Multi-line breakdown of strategic Bitcoin reserve as percentage of nominal GDP for the three top-impact sovereign holders : El Salvador (legal tender 2021, ~1.7% GDP), Bhutan (strategic mining 2022+, small economy with relatively large BTC exposure), and Ukraine (war-driven seizures + donations 2022+, ~2% GDP). Institutional macro-impact metric. | pro |
macro-v2-sovereign-verified-vs-estimated-trust | Sovereign Trust Score — Verified On-Chain % | Trust transparency score (0-100%) measuring the share of sovereign Bitcoin holdings verified on-chain via public Blockstream wallets versus estimated via aggregator data. Above 80% = high transparency regime (post US Marshals public seizure disclosures). Below 50% = low transparency (typical pre-2018 era before Bulgaria seizure disclosure). | pro |
macro-v2-sovereign-acquisition-rate-trend | Sovereign Acquisition Rate — Annual | Annual aggregate sovereign Bitcoin acquisition rate (BTC accumulated per year) histogram. Captures milestone events: Bulgaria 2018 disclosure of 2014 seizure (~213K BTC), El Salvador 2021+ legal tender purchases, US Strategic Reserve EO 2025+. Negative bars = sovereign sales (Germany BKA 2024 ~50K). | pro |
Yields & dollar
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
real-yields-vs-btc | Real Yields (TIPS 10Y) vs BTC | 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield (inverted), overlaid with BTC price. Falling real yields historically fuel Bitcoin rallies as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines. | pro |
dxy-inverse-vs-btc | Dollar Index (Inverse) vs BTC | Trade-weighted US Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS, inverted) overlaid with BTC price. A weakening dollar has historically been the strongest macro tailwind for Bitcoin. | free |
gold-btc-ratio | Gold / BTC Ratio | Ounces of gold needed to buy one Bitcoin. A declining ratio means BTC is outperforming gold — the 'Digital Gold' thesis in action. A rising ratio indicates flight to traditional safe havens. | free |
copper-gold-ratio | Copper / Gold Ratio (Risk Appetite) | Copper (industrial demand) divided by Gold (safe haven). Rising ratio = global economy expanding, risk-on. Falling ratio = contraction, risk-off. A leading macro health indicator. | pro |
cb-balance-sheets | Central Bank Balance Sheets (Fed + ECB + BOJ) | Total assets of the three largest central banks overlaid — Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. See QE/QT cycles across regions simultaneously. | pro |
cb-divergence-indexEXCLUSIVE | Central Bank Divergence Index | Count of central banks in easing stance minus those in tightening stance, across 40+ countries (BIS data). Positive = global easing wave (bullish for risk assets). A Trinity exclusive using BIS SDMX data covering 50+ central banks since 1946. | performance |
yield-curve-vs-btc | Yield Curve vs BTC | US Treasury yield curve spread (10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M) with BTC price overlay. Inverted yield curve historically precedes recessions. Un-inversion (steepening) often marks the start of the most dangerous phase. | pro |
yield-curve-duration | Yield Curve Inversion Duration Tracker | Consecutive days the 10Y-2Y spread has remained inverted (below zero). The 2022-2024 inversion was the longest in modern history. A Trinity exclusive visualization. | pro |
vix-vs-btc | VIX (Fear Index) vs BTC | CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) — the market's 'fear gauge' — overlaid with BTC price. VIX spikes above 30 have historically preceded or coincided with BTC buying opportunities. | free |
fed-funds-vs-btc | Fed Funds Rate vs BTC | Federal Funds effective rate — the most important interest rate in the world — overlaid with BTC price. Rate cuts historically mark the beginning of BTC's strongest rallies (QE regime). | pro |
breakeven-inflation-vs-btc | Breakeven Inflation (10Y) vs BTC | 10-Year breakeven inflation rate (market's expectation of average inflation over the next decade) with BTC overlay. Rising inflation expectations strengthen Bitcoin's 'inflation hedge' narrative. | pro |
boj-call-rate-vs-btc | BOJ Call Rate vs BTC | Monthly BOJ overnight uncollateralised call rate — the effective policy rate of the Bank of Japan. Covers ZIRP since 1999, NIRP (negative rates) 2016-2024, and the post-2024 normalisation regime. The spread between this rate and the Fed funds rate drives the JPY carry trade intensity, a key liquidity channel for global risk assets including Bitcoin. | pro |
usd-jpy-vs-btc | USD/JPY vs BTC | Daily USD/JPY exchange rate (yen per dollar) since 1971. Primary transmission channel of the JPY carry trade: a weak JPY (rising USD/JPY) typically indicates loose BOJ policy relative to the Fed, which funds leveraged positions in global risk assets. JPY is the second-largest DXY component (~13.6%) and one of the most important funding currencies for institutional Bitcoin positions. | pro |
macro-v2-trinity-yield-curve-compositeEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Yield Curve Composite (TYCC) | Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 aggregating 5 yield curve regime components: 2y10y spread + 3m10y spread + Real Yields TIPS 10y + Carry Trade pressure + USDX strength. | performance |
macro-v2-real-yields-tips-multi-tenor | Real Yields TIPS Multi-Tenor (5y / 10y / 30y) | TIPS real yields panel across 3 maturities (5-year, 10-year, 30-year). Negative real yields historically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. | pro |
macro-v2-carry-trade-detectionEXCLUSIVE | Carry Trade Detection | Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 capturing carry trade regimes via USDJPY + USDX + commodities basket pressure proxies. | performance |
macro-v2-us-eu-10y-yield-differential | US-EU 10Y Yield Differential | 10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year EUR benchmark yield. Positive widening indicates capital flows toward USD; narrowing indicates flows toward EUR. | pro |
macro-v2-us-jp-10y-yield-differential | US-JP 10Y Yield Differential | 10-year Treasury yield minus 10-year JGB yield. Historically the largest cross-region differential and a primary driver of yen carry trade activity. | pro |
macro-v2-inflation-breakeven-10y | Inflation Breakeven 10Y | 10-year breakeven inflation rate (nominal Treasury yield minus TIPS real yield). Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 10 years. | pro |
macro-v2-trade-weighted-dollar-index | Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (TWEX) | FRED Trade-Weighted Dollar Index across a 26-currency basket (TWEXBGSMTH broad nominal). A multilateral measure of dollar strength versus key trading partners. | pro |
macro-v2-dxy-volatility-index | DXY Volatility Index | Annualised 30-day rolling volatility of the broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index. Captures dollar volatility regimes (calm vs stressed). | pro |
macro-v2-forward-rate-implied-path | Forward Rate Implied Path (Fed Funds Futures) | Fed funds futures curve term structure across 3 principal tenors (1m / 3m / 6m forward rates). Market-implied path of US monetary policy over the next semester. | pro |
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metrics listed do not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.