BTC / 10Y Treasury Correlation
Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin daily returns and daily changes in the 10-Year US Treasury yield, bounded -1 to +1. Maps how BTC has traded relative to the long end of the rates curve across monetary regimes: rate-sensitive phases show sustained non-zero readings, while decoupled phases hover near zero.
What is it?
This metric computes the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin daily returns and daily changes in the 10-Year US Treasury yield. The formula is correlation(returns_btc, changes_dgs10) over a 90-day rolling window, bounded between -1 and +1. The 10-Year yield is the anchor of the long end of the US rates curve and a primary input to global discount rates. The yield series follows a business-day publication cadence with a short lag.
How to read
Three series are displayed: the correlation line (primary, bounded -1 to +1), the 10-Year yield level and the BTC price for context, with a zero line marking neutrality. Sustained negative readings describe rate-sensitive phases where rising yields coincided with BTC weakness (long-duration asset behaviour). Readings around zero describe phases where BTC ignored the rates impulse. Sustained positive readings describe reflation-type phases where yields and BTC rose together.
Key zones
Readings below -0.20 have historically flagged marked rate sensitivity, typical of tightening scares (the observed historical floor sits near -0.30). The -0.20 to +0.20 band is the decoupling zone where most of the history lives. Readings above +0.25 have accompanied phases where growth expectations dominated the rates impulse, with historical peaks near +0.49. Zone boundaries are reading aids calibrated on the observed historical range, not trading thresholds.
What to observe
Track the sign persistence across monetary regime shifts: entering and exiting tightening cycles has historically flipped or muted this correlation. Cross-read with the BTC / Dollar Index correlation: simultaneous deeply negative readings on both have historically described broad macro-pressure regimes on BTC. Divergences between the two lenses isolate which macro channel is doing the work.
Historical context
The 2022 tightening cycle provided the clearest episode of sustained negative correlation, when rapid yield increases coincided with a deep BTC drawdown. Earlier cycles showed weaker and less stable readings, consistent with BTC being less integrated in institutional portfolios at the time. Post-2023 phases alternated between decoupling and moderate sensitivity as the rates narrative waxed and waned.
Expert notes
Yield changes are used in place of yield returns because yields can approach zero and percentage returns would explode; daily first differences are the standard convention for rates. The correlation of BTC with yield levels would be meaningless; only co-movement of changes is informative. Weekend handling: BTC trades seven days a week while yields do not; the alignment forward-fills the yield series before computing joint returns, which slightly dampens the reading around market closures.
Common mistakes to avoid
A negative correlation with yields does not mean rate cuts are good for BTC in all regimes: the cause of the move matters (growth scare versus disinflation). Correlation strength is not exposure size: a strong correlation on small moves can matter less than a weak correlation on large moves. This reading is descriptive and carries no recommendation.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-corr-btc-10y/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-corr-btc-10y",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.