BTC vs Gold - Relative Strength Regime
High-timeframe momentum of Bitcoin against gold: a 14-week RSI of the weekly BTC/gold ratio, smoothed over 14 weeks. Bounded 0-100 with regime bands calibrated on real historical percentiles. Where the Nasdaq read benchmarks BTC as a risk asset, this one benchmarks its monetary store-of-value claim. Low extremes are rare and have historically clustered near BTC cycle lows. Same gold series as the Gold/BTC ratio chart.
What is it?
This metric measures the high-timeframe momentum of Bitcoin against gold, the reference monetary metal and the benchmark for BTC's store-of-value claim. Construction: the BTC/gold ratio is sampled on weekly closes, a 14-week Wilder RSI is computed on that ratio, then smoothed with a 14-week simple moving average. The published value follows the Trinity reading convention: high means BTC is historically stretched against gold, low means historically depressed. Where the Nasdaq read benchmarks BTC as a risk asset, this one tests its monetary claim. The two together frame BTC's dual identity. The gold series is the same market index that powers the Gold/BTC ratio chart.
How to read
Like its Nasdaq sibling, this chart spends most of its history in uninformative middle territory and only speaks at extremes. The shaded bands are calibrated on this pair's own historical percentiles: the red EUPHORIA zone (roughly the 90th percentile and above) marks phases where BTC's outperformance of gold was historically stretched; the green CAPITULATION zone (roughly the 5th percentile and below) marks episodes where gold's dominance over BTC reached historical extremes, configurations that have been characteristic of high-timeframe BTC lows. Persistence in a band matters more than a single touch.
Key zones
Above the euphoria threshold (~90th percentile): BTC historically overbought against gold, seen in mature expansion phases. Below the capitulation threshold (~5th percentile): BTC historically oversold against gold, rare episodes that have clustered near BTC cycle lows. The pivot at 50 separates relative expansion from contraction. Thresholds are percentile anchors of this specific pair, slightly different from the Nasdaq pair's, because each pair's history defines its own extremes.
What to observe
1) Entries into and persistence within the extreme bands. 2) Divergence between the two benchmark reads: BTC weak against gold but resilient against equities describes a monetary flight-to-safety regime; weakness against both describes broad de-risking. 3) The exit from a capitulation episode back toward the pivot. 4) The BTC/gold ratio itself (attached to each point) for the level behind the momentum.
Historical context
Gold-dominance extremes over BTC have been rare and short-lived relative to the pair's full history, and past episodes of this kind have coincided with the terminal phases of BTC bear markets rather than their beginnings. As with every cycle-scale observation, the effective sample is a handful of episodes: the regularity is descriptive of history, not a mechanism.
Expert notes
The indication is relative: it can resolve in BTC's favor while both assets decline at different speeds, and a gold drawdown from elevated levels would mechanically lift this reading without any BTC strength. Weekly cadence, Friday-stamped closes, current week appears once closed. Small effective sample of extremes : regime context, never a trigger. Reading this alongside the Nasdaq pair adds a second benchmark, not an independent confirmation: deep BTC drawdowns push both toward their extremes simultaneously.
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: reading a capitulation-zone value as a bottom call. It describes how today's relative momentum ranks against history, nothing more. Another: comparing this pair's absolute level with the Nasdaq pair's. Each is calibrated on its own distribution. Finally, momentum extremes on a ratio say nothing about the dollar path of either leg over the coming weeks.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-btc-gold-rs-regime/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-btc-gold-rs-regime",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.