BTC vs Nasdaq - Relative Strength Regime
High-timeframe momentum of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq 100: a 14-week RSI of the weekly BTC/NAS100 ratio, smoothed over 14 weeks. Bounded 0-100 with regime bands calibrated on real historical percentiles. Low extremes are rare (a handful of episodes per decade) and have historically clustered near BTC cycle lows, high extremes near cycle peaks. Answers one question: is BTC historically stretched against the equity benchmark?
What is it?
This metric measures the high-timeframe momentum of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq 100, the benchmark for its claim as a risk asset. Construction: the BTC/NAS100 ratio is sampled on weekly closes, a 14-week Wilder RSI is computed on that ratio, then smoothed with a 14-week simple moving average, a 14-week average of a 14-week oscillator, whose regimes turn over on the scale of market cycles, not days. The published value follows the Trinity reading convention: high means BTC is historically stretched (overbought) against the Nasdaq, low means historically depressed (oversold). The raw un-smoothed RSI and the BTC/NAS100 ratio itself accompany each point.
How to read
This is not a trading oscillator: it spends the vast majority of its history in uninformative middle territory and only speaks at its extremes, which occur a handful of times per decade. The shaded bands are calibrated on the real historical percentiles of the series: the red EUPHORIA zone (roughly the 90th percentile and above) marks periods where BTC's outperformance of equities was historically stretched; the green CAPITULATION zone (roughly the 5th percentile and below) marks the opposite, episodes of relative underperformance so deep they have only a few precedents. Between the bands, the reading is deliberately silent.
Key zones
Above the euphoria threshold (~90th percentile): BTC historically overbought against the Nasdaq. Past visits to this zone occurred in mature phases of BTC cycles. Below the capitulation threshold (~5th percentile): BTC historically oversold against the Nasdaq. The rare past episodes of this kind have clustered near high-timeframe BTC lows. The neutral pivot at 50 separates relative-strength expansion from contraction. Thresholds are percentile anchors of this pair's own history, not universal constants.
What to observe
1) Entries into either extreme band, where the entire information content of this chart lives there. 2) The DURATION of a stay in an extreme zone: past episodes lasted weeks to months, and persistence matters more than the first touch. 3) The exit from an extreme back toward the pivot, which historically accompanied regime transitions. 4) Convergence with the gold-based read and with on-chain cost-basis metrics: when independent benchmarks describe the same extreme simultaneously, the regime picture thickens, while remembering these are largely the same underlying fact measured several ways.
Historical context
Measured this way, extreme lows of BTC relative strength against the Nasdaq have been rare, historically appearing in a handful of episodes over the pair's history, and those episodes have been characteristic of high-timeframe BTC lows rather than mid-cycle conditions. Each of them was coincident with, not predictive of, deep, extended BTC drawdowns. The magnitude of what followed those episodes has compressed cycle over cycle, consistent with a maturing asset whose marginal returns diminish in both directions.
Expert notes
The indication is RELATIVE by construction: BTC strengthening against the Nasdaq is consistent with both assets rising and with both falling at different speeds. A broad equity drawdown can drag BTC's dollar price lower even as this ratio resolves in BTC's favor. The weekly cadence means points are stamped on Friday closes and the current week only appears once closed. The sample of extreme episodes is intrinsically small: treat the bands as regime context, never as a trigger, and expect any single divergent cycle to weaken the historical pattern.
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistake: reading this as a short-horizon timing tool. The construction (14-week RSI averaged over 14 weeks) says nothing about the coming days or weeks; its resolution is the cycle. Another mistake: treating an extreme as an imminent reversal. Extremes can persist and deepen for months. Finally, do not read simultaneous extremes on this chart, the gold read and drawdown metrics as independent confirmations: they are correlated measurements of the same persistent decline.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-btc-nasdaq-rs-regime/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-btc-nasdaq-rs-regime",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.