BTC / VIX Correlation
Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and VIX daily returns, bounded -1 to +1. A persistently negative reading classifies BTC alongside risk assets (equity stress pushes BTC down); readings near zero indicate detachment from equity volatility regimes. The historical record lets the data test the safe-haven narrative directly.
What is it?
This metric computes the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin daily returns and VIX daily returns. The VIX measures the implied volatility priced into S&P 500 options and is the standard gauge of equity market stress. The formula is correlation(returns_btc, returns_vix) over a 90-day rolling window, bounded between -1 and +1. Because the VIX itself is strongly inversely related to equities, this correlation reads how BTC behaves when equity stress rises.
How to read
Three series are displayed: the correlation line (primary, bounded -1 to +1), the VIX level and the BTC price for context, with a zero line. Sustained negative readings mean BTC fell when equity stress rose: the risk-asset classification. Readings near zero mean BTC traded independently from equity volatility regimes. Sustained positive readings would describe safe-haven behaviour and have been historically uncommon on this pair.
Key zones
Readings below -0.4 describe strong risk-asset regimes, most visible during acute stress episodes. The -0.2 to +0.2 band is the detachment zone where BTC ignores equity volatility. Positive territory above +0.2 is the exception zone historically and merits scrutiny of the underlying window when it appears.
What to observe
Watch how the correlation behaves around VIX spikes: a deepening negative reading during a spike confirms the risk-asset channel is active, while a stable near-zero reading through a spike is evidence of detachment. Compare consecutive stress episodes across the history: the degree of BTC co-movement with equity stress has varied cycle by cycle, and that evolution is itself the information.
Historical context
Acute global stress episodes, such as the March 2020 liquidity shock, produced sharply negative readings as BTC sold off with equities. Calmer expansion phases repeatedly returned the reading toward zero. The pair has never shown a durable positive regime across the recorded history, which keeps the safe-haven thesis an open question that this chart lets the data answer over time.
Expert notes
The VIX is itself a derived, mean-reverting series with strong negative skew relative to equities, so its return distribution is heavy-tailed; Pearson correlation underweights tail co-movement, meaning crisis co-crashes can be sharper than the rolling reading suggests. For stress analysis, pair this lens with drawdown-conditional views. The VIX series follows business-day publication with a short lag, forward-filled over weekends for alignment with BTC.
Common mistakes to avoid
A near-zero correlation does not certify BTC as a hedge: absence of co-movement is not insurance during tail events. A negative correlation with the VIX does not mean BTC hedges volatility; it means BTC behaved like a risk asset. Do not annualize or extrapolate a 90-day reading into a structural constant: this relationship is regime-dependent by nature.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-corr-btc-vix/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-corr-btc-vix",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.