Cycle intelligence
Each metric in the cycle intelligence rubric ships with a bilingual education sheet. Click any identifier to open the detailed page (definition, how to read, key zones, historical context).
classic-indicators
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
cycle-pi-cycle-bottom | Pi Cycle Bottom | Public-domain cycle-floor framework using two long moving averages of Bitcoin spot price - a 471-day simple moving average and a modified 150-day exponential moving average scaled by 0.745. The output spread between them captures the regime: positive readings have historically aligned with deep cycle accumulation; negative readings with expansion regimes. | free |
cycle-demand-vs-issuance | Demand vs Issuance | Public-domain supply-shock framework comparing daily Bitcoin protocol issuance (USD per day) against an on-chain proxy for daily net demand (the 7-day smoothed change in realized cap, USD per day). The chart juxtaposes the two flows on the same axis to expose post-halving supply-shock regimes and demand-side acceleration phases. | pro |
cycle-pi-cycle-highs-and-lows | Pi Cycle Highs & Lows | Public-domain combined cycle top + bottom detection framework (Philip Swift). The chart overlays four moving averages on Bitcoin spot price: SMA(111) and 2×SMA(350) for top detection, EMA(150) and SMA(471)×0.745 (the adjusted bottom MA) for bottom detection. When the short MAs cross their long counterparts, the chart marks historically aligned overheated (top) or deep accumulation (bottom) cycle pivots. The 350/111 ≈ π mathematical curiosity has been validated across all 3 verified historical tops within 3 days, and 3/3 verified bottoms. | free |
cycle-power-law-oscillator-deviation | Power Law Oscillator Deviation | Public-domain power-law growth model deviation oscillator. The chart transforms the gap between Bitcoin spot price and the canonical power-law model (exponent ~5.8, derived from log_price ∝ k × log(days_since_genesis)) into a centered-zero oscillator readable at a glance. Rolling 5-year statistical bands provide adaptive context: the +1σ and -1σ envelope, and the +2σ outer ceiling. Above +1.5σ historically aligned with distribution regimes; below -0.5σ with deep accumulation regimes (3/3 verified cycle bottoms 2015 / 2018 / 2022). | pro |
cycle-quantile-zones-cold-warm-hot | Quantile Zones Cold / Warm / Hot | Adaptive valuation framework derived from the standard Koenker-Bassett 1978 quantile regression statistical method. The chart fits log10(price) ∝ days_since_genesis on a rolling 4-year window, then projects four percentile band edges at each date: q05, q33, q66 and q95. The chart segments price action into five regions: extreme undervaluation (below q05, 5% of days), Cold (q05 to q33, accumulation regime), Warm (q33 to q66, neutral mid-cycle), Hot (q66 to q95, expansion), extreme overheat (above q95, 5% of days). Because q33 and q66 are each crossed a third of the time by definition, the price necessarily leaves the inner band; the q05 and q95 borders sit either side of 90% of all days, so a reader can tell an ordinary excursion from an extreme one. The bands compress with network maturation, preserving cycle-comparability across all 3 verified cycles. | pro |
cycle-pi-cycle-prealerts-bands | Pi Cycle Pre-Alerts Bands | Public-domain Pi Cycle Top extension with anticipated cycle top detection. The chart overlays SMA(111), 2×SMA(350) cross threshold, and a pre-alert lower threshold at 0.9 × 2×SMA(350) on Bitcoin spot price. When the SMA(111) enters the pre-alert band (90% to 100% of the cross threshold), the chart enters a warming state historically aligned with the 2 to 8 weeks preceding the confirmed cross. When SMA(111) crosses above 2×SMA(350), the confirmed regime activates - historically aligned with cycle peaks (3/3 verified 2013 / 2017 / 2021). | pro |
cycle-pi-cycle-risk-oscillator | Pi Cycle Risk Oscillator | Public-domain Pi Cycle Top transformed into a normalized 0-1 scalar oscillator for condensed institutional reading. The formula clips the ratio SMA(111) / (2×SMA(350)) to the range [0, 1.5], then divides by 1.5 to map into [0, 1]. Empirical zones validated across 3/3 historical cycles: 0-0.3 cold accumulation regime, 0.3-0.7 neutral mid-cycle, 0.7-0.9 warming (top approach 2-8 weeks ahead), 0.9-1.0 top imminent (within 2 months historically). Provides the most condensed reading of the Pi Cycle framework for dashboard integration. | pro |
cycle-euphoria-zone-detector | Euphoria Zone Detector | Public-domain confluence framework combining the Mayer 2.4× lower bound (price ≥ 2.4 × 200-day SMA) and the 3× power-law upper bound (3 × empirical growth model) into a single overheating regime detector. When the BTC spot price simultaneously sits above the Mayer threshold AND below the power-law extreme cap, the chart enters the historical confluence zone. The 3 verified cycle peaks (December 2013, December 2017, April 2021) all materialized within this confluence window. | pro |
cycle-pnl-vs-ma365-regime | P&L vs MA365 Regime | Public-domain bull-bear regime detection framework via the distance between the P&L Index (unrealized profit of average network buyer = (price - realized_price) / realized_price) and its own 365-day moving average. When the index sits above its MA365, the chart enters the bull regime (green zone - historically associated with sustained price expansion phases). When below, the chart enters the bear regime (red zone - historically associated with contraction phases). The zero line separates the two regimes structurally. Validated across 3 historical cycles 2012-2022. | pro |
cycle-bitcoin-yardstick-mc-hash | Bitcoin Yardstick (MC / Hash) | Public-domain valuation oscillator contextualized by network economic security. The yardstick is the ratio of Bitcoin market capitalization over hash rate (USD per hash unit), normalized by its own 730-day moving average to produce a centered-1.0 oscillator. Empirical extremes 0.5 (cheap, historically aligned with cycle bottoms 3/3) and 2.0 (expensive, historically aligned with cycle tops 3/3 verified December 2013, December 2017, April 2021). Hash rate represents the economic cost of attacking the network - the yardstick measures price relative to that security cost. | pro |
cycle-mayer-multiple-heatmap | Mayer Multiple Heatmap | Public-domain Mayer Multiple framework (ratio of price to 200-day simple moving average) rendered as a heatmap directly coloring each point of the BTC price curve. Diverging color ramp pivoting on 1.0, where price equals its own 200-day average. The neutral band recedes into a dark slate because it is the most common state; color only asserts itself when the market leaves it. Cold side brightens outward: medium blue (0.8-1.0 = near support), bright blue (Mayer < 0.8 = cold accumulation). Hot side deepens outward: salmon (1.5-2.0 = warming), red (2.0-2.4 = hot), deep red (≥ 2.4 = euphoria extreme). A color-bar beside the chart carries every threshold and regime name, so no band is identified by color alone. The color sequence along the historical price curve reveals at a glance the valuation regimes traversed by Bitcoin across 15+ years - each cycle peak lights up red, each cycle bottom lights up blue. | pro |
cycle-anti-s2f-reversion | Anti-S2F Reversion Oscillator | Public-domain Stock-to-Flow scarcity framework reversion angle. The chart measures the log-space deviation between actual BTC spot price and the prediction of an OLS log-log regression of price on the S2F ratio (supply / annual_issuance). Adaptive ±2σ rolling 5-year statistical bands provide cycle-comparable extreme thresholds. ⚠️ The underlying S2F model itself is widely considered partially deprecated post-spot-ETF (January 2024) - Trinity retains only the REVERSION OSCILLATOR angle (deviation from prediction) as a historical mean-reversion tool, NOT a raw S2F prediction chart. Predictive scope is limited in the post-ETF regime. | performance |
cycle-decay-channel-decreasing-peaks | Decay Channel - Decreasing Peaks | Public-domain decay channel framework derived from power-law cycle literature. The chart overlays the BTC spot price with two enveloping bounds: the long-term power-law lower bound (10^-17.04 × days^5.83) and an exponential decay upper envelope (PL × (1 + 9.0 × exp(-0.0005 × days))). Three historical cycle peaks (December 2013, December 2017, April 2021) have exhibited progressively decreasing multiples over the power-law trend (~10× → ~5× → ~3×), suggesting an asymptotic regime of market maturation. CAVEAT 3-point calibration is statistically limited - sample-size constraint for cycle 4 extrapolation pending empirical confirmation. | pro |
cycle-power-law-time-contours | Power Law Time Contours | Public-domain power-law cycle framework with multi-horizon structural projection. The chart projects the BTC long-term power-law trend forward by horizon: power_law_t(H) = 10^-17.04 × (days_since_genesis + H × 365)^5.83 for H ∈ {1y, 10y} short and long horizons. Calibration constants empirically derived via least-squares regression in log-log space on full BTC price history (15+ years). CAVEAT projection assumes long-term trend continues - sample of 4 cycles statistically limited for multi-year extrapolation validation. | performance |
cycle-cost-basis-thermometerEXCLUSIVE | Cost-Basis Cycle Thermometer | A 0-100 cycle thermometer reading where the BTC spot price sits relative to the MEDIAN cost basis of the supply - the median of the on-chain cost-basis distribution. The reading is a Trinity percentile-rank construction of how far spot sits above that median across the full history, so it is bounded 0-100, repaint-free (a past reading never changes as new data arrives), and comparable across cycles. The median is robust to the cheap early-coin tail that drags the mean (realized price) down, sharpening the top readings. Empirically across 3.5 verified cycles the Cold zone (low) coincided with cycle lows and the Hot zone (high) with cycle highs: forward one-year outcomes from the Cold zone were historically strong while outcomes from the Hot zone were historically weak. A reading of regime, not a recommendation. | pro |
cycle-halving-clock-wave | Halving Clock Wave | Cycle model in protocol time: h = block height / 210,000, one halving cycle = exactly one unit. A public power-law framework provides the trend - refitted by least squares on Trinity full-node data at every sync, never frozen - and a damped harmonic wave traces the cycle path around it, framed by two bands. The price axis is root-scaled (price^(1/n)), which turns the power law into a literal straight line without a log axis. Historically the bands have contained roughly five days out of six. | pro |
convergence
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
cycle-phase-probabilityEXCLUSIVE | Cycle Phase Probability | A stacked-area chart showing the real-time probability distribution across four cycle phases: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Probabilities are derived from multiple independent components and update daily, offering a probabilistic rather than deterministic view of cycle positioning. | performance |
cycle-multi-sma-confluence-zones | Multi-SMA Confluence Zones | Overlays the BTC price with 5 long-period simple moving averages (100, 200, 350, 500, 730 days) and automatically detects zones where 3 or more SMAs converge simultaneously within a ±5% price window. An algorithm computes a confluence_score from 0 to 5 each day. A dedicated lower-panel heatmap displays the full historical timeline colored by confluence_score (transparent → pale yellow → orange → red → burgundy). Tabs UI enables filtering subsets: All SMAs, Pi Cycle subset (100+350), Long-term subset (350+500+730). On the four cycles observed so far, eight of the nine occurrences of confluence_score ≥4 preceded a major pivot. Nine observations is a small record: one occurrence changing side moves the count by eleven points. | pro |
cycle-hy-bond-spread-inverse | High Yield Bond Spread vs BTC | Overlays the daily ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread against Bitcoin's daily spot price. The spread measures the yield premium that corporate high-yield bonds demand over equivalent-maturity US Treasuries - the universal institutional barometer of credit stress. Deep burgundy fill above 7% (distress regime) and forest green fill below 4% (calm regime) enable instant credit context readability. Daily T+1 publication lag. | pro |
cycle-spx-tlt-risk-ratio | SPX/TLT Risk-On Ratio vs BTC | Overlays the daily ratio of the S&P 500 index over the TLT ETF (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) against Bitcoin's daily spot price. The ratio is the institutional macro framework expressing the rotation between US large-cap equities and long-duration Treasury bonds - when equities outperform bonds, ratio rises (risk-on regime); when bonds outperform equities, ratio falls (risk-off regime). A 50-day moving average overlay (cyan analytical) isolates structural regime shifts from daily noise. Daily T+0 publication (NYSE close 16:00 ET). | pro |
cycle-trinity-multi-model-compositeEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Cycle Composite | ⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - proprietary composite score on a 0-to-100 scale that synthesizes multiple Bitcoin cycle frameworks into a single readable number. Aggregates valuation oscillators, on-chain metrics, and momentum gauges via a Trinity proprietary weighting settled against the completed historical cycles rather than fitted to the one in progress. Zone boundaries (cold under 25, warm 75-90, euphoria above 90) ground the reading in historically observed regimes. Publication daily T+0. The conceptual framework, the sub-indicator family composition, the score range, and the historical regime context are fully transparent ; the precise weighting recipe is proprietary and not disclosed publicly to preserve methodological value. | performance |
cycle-confluence-index-9-metricsEXCLUSIVE | Trinity Cycle Confluence Index | ⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - master composite that aggregates multiple canonical Bitcoin cycle indicators into a single composite score from 0 to 100. Each sub-indicator is public-domain and individually documented elsewhere in the Trinity catalog. The aggregation, its weighting and its calibration are proprietary and not disclosed. Publication daily T+0. The composite is rendered only when every underlying sub-indicator is available, so a gap in the curve means a missing input, never a zero reading. | performance |
cycle-timing
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
cycle-duration-dashboard | Cycle Duration Dashboard | A comprehensive multi-series view showing bull-phase duration, bear-phase duration and full-cycle length for each historical Bitcoin cycle. Instantly compare how the current cycle measures against all predecessors. | free |
cycle-drawdown-profile | Cycle Drawdown Profile | Overlays each Bitcoin cycle's drawdown trajectory on a single chart, every cycle anchored on its own halving and indexed in days since. Reads how deep each cycle's worst decline went and how long it took to get there, which makes cycles of different lengths directly comparable. | pro |
cycle-halving-block-progress | Halving Block Progress | Public-domain framework gauging the percentage of blocks elapsed since the most recent halving, on the canonical 210,000-block cadence. The reading wraps to zero at each halving event, then climbs through the inter-halving window. Approaching 100% indicates the network is near the next halving boundary. | free |
cycle-yearly-candles-overlay | Yearly Candles Overlay | Public-domain calendar-year OHLC aggregation: each calendar year of Bitcoin's spot price condensed into a single candle (open=year-start close, close=year-end close, high=intra-year max, low=intra-year min approximation). One candle per calendar year renders the full price history at a glance, exposing multi-cycle structure on a single visual. | free |
cycle-trinity-rekt-halving-phasesEXCLUSIVE | 5 Halving Cycle Phases | Trinity Exclusive five-phase decomposition of the Bitcoin halving cycle. Each phase carries a dedicated colored band on the timeline: Pre-Halving anticipation, post-halving Rally, technical Retrace, sideways Re-Accumulation, and final Parabolic. Reads cycle position at a glance from a single banded chart. | free |
cycle-halving-radar-polar | Halving Radar Polar | Public-domain polar visualization that compresses the 4-year inter-halving window into a single circular radar image. The angular coordinate sweeps from 0° at the most recent halving to 360° at the next halving boundary; the radial coordinate is the logarithmic spot price. Reads cycle position at a single circular glance instead of a scrolling timeline. | pro |
cycle-bull-market-corrections | Bull Market Corrections | Public-domain bull-market drawdown framework that overlays the intra-bull correction depth (percentage drop from the 90-day rolling high) across multiple Bitcoin halving cycles. Each cycle is sliced from its anchor cycle low and aligned on a shared days-since-cycle-low axis, exposing how drawdown patterns repeat (or evolve) across cycles. | pro |
cycle-bear-rally-performance | Bear Rally Performance | Public-domain bear-market rally framework that overlays the magnitude of intra-bear rallies (percentage gain from the 60-day rolling low) across multiple Bitcoin halving bear cycles. Each bear is anchored at its cycle high (the local price ATH preceding the cycle bottom), exposing how counter-trend rallies repeat (or evolve) across bear regimes. | pro |
cycle-bitcoin-spiral-polar | Bitcoin Spiral - 17 Years | Polar-spiral structural visualization framework anchored on Bitcoin genesis. Each full revolution corresponds to one 4-year halving cycle (1461 days); the radial coordinate is log10(price). The result is a single-image rendering of seventeen years of Bitcoin price history that exposes the cumulative compression of cycle expansions on a polar canvas. | performance |
cycle-volatility-decay-overlay | Volatility Decay Overlay | Textbook volatility decay framework. Annualized 30-day realized volatility of Bitcoin daily returns, smoothed by a 365-day moving average, sliced by halving cycle and aligned by days-since-cycle-low. The multi-cycle overlay shows three successive cycles in superposition; the trend across cycles is the empirical signature of an asset whose realized volatility decays as its market capitalization matures. | pro |
cycle-repetition-fractal | Repetition Fractal Cycle | Public-domain fractal cycle framework that overlays four idealised 4-year bell curves onto the Bitcoin log price line: three anchored on documented cycle bottoms, drawn solid, and the next one projected, drawn dashed. Each bell anchors on a documented cycle bottom and partitions the inter-cycle window into four colour-coded phase bands (Accumulation / Markup / Distribution / Bear). Surfaces the long-horizon structural rhythm of Bitcoin price action at a single glance. | pro |
cycle-realized-price-drawdown-multi | Realized Price Drawdown Multi-Cycle | Standard on-chain framework. Realized Price (RP = realized_cap / supply) measures the average cost basis of the Bitcoin supply. The chart measures the percentage drawdown of RP relative to its rolling 5-year all-time-high, sliced by cycle and anchored by cycle highs (start of bear regimes). The multi-cycle overlay shows how deeply the realized cost basis has corrected during each successive bear regime. | pro |
cycle-analog-picker-1416-1620-2024 | Analog Picker Multi-Cycle | Superimposes the current cycle 4 BTC trajectory with one or more historical cycle references (cycle 2 era 2015, cycle 3 era 2018) rescaled at a common anchor (cycle bottom). Reveals visually whether the current cycle is converging with or diverging from prior cycle analogs. Convergence ≤±10% indicates the fractal pattern holds (cycle 2 vs cycle 3 showed correlation ~0.85 on phase 0-150d); divergence >±25% indicates pattern breakdown. | pro |
cycle-mid-cycle-transition-analog | Mid-Cycle Transition Analog | Isolates and visually compares the lateral consolidation phase Bitcoin historically traverses between bear market exit and bull market start. Auto-detects the bear exit anchor (day 0) where price drops below 0.75 × rolling_max_365d (-25% threshold), then normalizes the 360-day post-anchor window to a common base 100. The three most recent detected phases are aligned for direct comparison, the current one against the two before it. Tight consolidation between 90 and 110 is shaded forest green, breakout above 120 terracotta, breakdown below 80 burgundy. | performance |
cycle-historical-fractal-overlay | Historical Fractal Overlay - Multi-Shift Halving | Superimposes the current Bitcoin price trajectory with three historical trajectories, each shifted backward by one, two or three halving cycles (1461 / 2922 / 4383 days, calibrated to the median halving period). The three shifted trajectories are drawn together, so alignment and divergence read directly off the chart. Where the current trajectory tracks a shifted one, the cycle is repeating its predecessor's shape; where it pulls away, the repetition has broken, upward on a parabolic acceleration and downward on a deep capitulation. Multi-shift differentiation vs the single-shift industry standard. | pro |
cycle-bull-cycles-comparison-multi-view | Bull Cycles Comparison Multi-View | Superimposes the most recent 3 Bitcoin bull markets (cycle 2 ~2015-17, cycle 3 ~2018-21, cycle 4 ~2022-current) aligned on a common X axis representing days since cycle bottom. A tabs UI enables switching between 3 complementary views: Multiplier ROI (default, log Y axis, diminishing returns visual), Returns % (percentage gain), Drawdown from ATH (correction depth from rolling peak). Background phase zones mark typical bull cycle progression: post-capitulation rally (0-150d green), consolidation (150-450d neutral), main bull leg (450-800d Trinity Gold), blow-off zone (>800d red). Diminishing returns confirmed 4/4 cycles in the broader framework. | pro |
cycle-cost-basis-phases | Cost Basis Phases | Classifies every day of the Bitcoin cycle into one of 8 deterministic phases derived purely from the ordinal position of spot price versus the three on-chain cost basis levels: Short-Term Holders (STH), the whole network, and Long-Term Holders (LTH). The regime bit comes from the STH vs LTH ordering - when recent entrants pay more than old holders the market is in expansion, when their cost basis sinks below it is in compression. The sub-phase is where price sits inside the cost basis fan. A -3..+3 ordinal score summarizes the position, a 5-day hysteresis filters out flickering transitions, and markers flag historically extreme days: realized profit/loss spikes, profit-to-loss dominance, low sell-side risk, and the rare STH×LTH crossovers that pivot the regime (~2 per cycle). Zero weights, zero hidden parameters - fully reproducible from four public numbers per day. | pro |
cycle-halving-seasonality | Halving Seasonality Map | Maps two recurring time windows onto the Bitcoin log price line, both measured in weeks elapsed since each halving and derived entirely from the real price record: the window in which cycle tops have historically formed, and the window in which cycle bottoms have historically formed. Each window is the empirical envelope of where price actually peaked and bottomed, not a fixed assumption. The reference is computed on the mature cycles only (the 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings for tops; 2016 and 2020 for bottoms); the first cycle around the 2012 halving is displayed but greyed out and excluded, because that early, thin market topped far earlier and would distort the envelope. Every real top and bottom is marked with a dot, each halving with a vertical pin, and a cursor shows the current position in weeks-since-halving relative to the two windows. The upcoming windows the market has not yet reached, together with the next cycle, are projected forward in a lighter, dashed style. A descriptive reading of a historical regularity, not a timing instruction. | pro |
cycle-cost-basis-regime-map | Cost Basis Regime Map | Three acquisition prices (the coins moved one day to one week ago, the coins held under roughly 155 days, and the active market average) admit only six possible orderings. Each ordering describes a distinct structural state, from the one where marginal demand pays the most to the one where recent buyers sit above the market while new money enters below it. The background colour is that state; the three lines are what produce it, so every colour change lands exactly on a crossing. A five percent deadband keeps the state from flickering when two lines graze each other. No weights, no hidden parameters: the state is a ranking, and the spot price never takes part in it. | pro |
cycle-cost-basis-regime-plane | Cost Basis Regime Plane | The same six states, drawn as a map instead of a timeline. Two coordinates place the market: how far new money sits from the market average, and how far recent holders sit from it. Three lines carve the plane into the six sectors, and the market's path traces a loop through them over a cycle. Plotting the current cycle over the previous ones turns the question of where we stand compared with last time into something you read off a map rather than reconstruct from memory. Distance from a boundary is as informative as which side of it you are on. | pro |
cycle-regime-duration-profile | Regime Duration Profile | How long the market has spent in its current structural state, set against every past episode of that same state. Price tells you how far the market has moved; this tells you how long it has been waiting. The two often disagree, and the disagreement is the point: a phase can be young and already painful, or old and quietly close to its historical median. Reference statistics are computed only from episodes that had already ended, so a given day never sees its own final duration nor anything that came after it. | pro |
cycle-loss-volume-btc | Loss Volume in Bitcoin | Coins changing hands below what their holder paid, counted in bitcoin rather than in dollars. The unit is the whole point: a given dollar amount of realised loss represented a very different number of coins ten years ago than it does today, so dollar-denominated loss charts quietly flatten every early cycle into insignificance. Counting units removes price inflation and network growth from the comparison. Only the long-term cohort is plotted, in a thirty-day and a seven-day window: the recent cohort moves roughly thirty times more volume and would flatten it against zero on a shared axis. | pro |
cycle-upper-half-overhang | Upper-Half Cost Basis Overhang | How many coins were acquired above the midpoint of the last four years' price range, and how fast that stock is draining. Supply bought high does not disappear when price falls: it sits there, and its owners decide what happens next. The measure inverts the distribution of acquisition prices to convert a price threshold into a share of supply, so it reads the whole holder base rather than a single cohort. The midpoint anchor was picked by measurement: it is the only threshold tested that never falls outside the percentile grid, which is what keeps this from becoming a flat line pinned to a ceiling. | pro |
cycle-bmsb-distance-multi-cycle | BMSB Distance Multi-Cycle | Public-domain Bull Market Support Band framework. The BMSB is composed of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average of Bitcoin spot price; the chart measures the percentage distance of weekly price from the midpoint of the two MAs. Sliced by halving cycle and aligned by days-since-cycle-low, the multi-cycle overlay reveals how the price has historically danced around its weekly support band across successive cycles. | pro |
cycle-perez-techno-phases | Techno-Economic Phases (Perez Framework) | Public-domain 50-year techno-economic framework that partitions a technological revolution into five sequential phases (Installation, Frenzy, Crash, Synergy, Maturity) and overlays them on the Bitcoin log price line. Surfaces the long-horizon adoption arc beneath cycle-level noise at a single glance. | pro |
cycle-schumpeterian-triple-cycle | Schumpeterian Triple Cycle (K+J+Kit) | Public-domain Schumpeter 1939 decomposition framework - 3 superposed sinusoidal waves (Kondratieff 16y, Juglar 8y, Kitchin 4y) anchored on documented Bitcoin cycle bottoms. Composite (K+J+Kit)/3 reveals triple-alignment zones above the BTC log price line. Mega-bull peaks emerge when all 3 waves align upward simultaneously; mega-bear bottoms when all 3 align downward. | pro |
cycle-benner-1875 | Benner Cycle 1875 (Triadic Pattern) | Public-domain Samuel Benner 1875 triadic market-cycle pattern, originally observed in 19th-century agricultural and commodity markets, propagated forward onto the Bitcoin era. Three classes of years are color-coded as vertical bands overlaying the BTC log price line : Years of Panic (red, 16-18-20 year cycle), Years of High Prices (green, 8-9-10 year cycle), and Years of Hard Times / Low Prices (orange, between consecutive panic and high years). | pro |
nested-cycles
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
cycle-emotion-roadmap | Bitcoin Cycle Emotion Roadmap | Public-domain market-emotion roadmap that overlays 13 successive sentiment labels on the BTC price line at programmatically detected peaks, troughs, and recovery zones. Reads the cycle through the human-emotion lens established in financial behavioral literature. | free |
cycle-wyckoff-accumulation-zones | Wyckoff Accumulation Phases | Canonical Wyckoff Accumulation schematic applied to BTC cycle bottoms, decomposing the stopping-action sequence into the textbook four-phase A/B/C/D framework (Hank Pruden / Bruce Fraser pedagogy). Phase A = Stopping Action (contains PS, SC, AR events); Phase B = Building Cause (sideways consolidation, cumulative absorption); Phase C = Testing (ST event window, final retest of SC low); Phase D = Mark-up Begins (SOS, LPS events, initial new bull push). Each phase paints a colored date-range rectangle spanning the full chart height over the BTC log price line. Events (PS/SC/AR/ST) occur WITHIN phases as identifiable markers - they are not phases themselves. The canonical fifth phase E (mark-up continuation) is implicit beyond window_end. | pro |
cycle-wyckoff-distribution-zones | Wyckoff Distribution Phases | Canonical Wyckoff Distribution schematic applied to BTC cycle tops, decomposing the topping-action sequence into the textbook four-phase A/B/C/D framework (symmetric mirror of Accumulation; Hank Pruden / Bruce Fraser pedagogy). Phase A = Stopping Action (contains PSY, BC, AR events); Phase B = Building Cause Distribution (sideways consolidation, cumulative distribution by strong hands); Phase C = Testing (ST event window, final retest of BC high); Phase D = Mark-down Begins (SOW, LPSY events, initial new bear push). Each phase paints a colored date-range rectangle. Events (PSY/BC/AR/ST) occur WITHIN phases as identifiable markers. The canonical fifth phase E (mark-down continuation) is implicit beyond window_end. | pro |
seasonal-patterns
| Identifier | Name | Short description | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
cycle-trend-pattern-color-years | Year-of-Cycle Pattern | Public-domain four-year cycle framework partitioning the post-halving period into four 365-day windows. Each calendar slice colors a band on the timeline, exposing the seasonal regime structure of Bitcoin cycles at a glance. The categorical output ranges 1 to 4 across the inter-halving window. | free |
cycle-fng-multi-year-heatmap | Multi-Year Fear/Greed Heatmap | Daily Fear & Greed Index reformatted into a calendar matrix - one cell per day across multiple calendar years - and colored on a diverging scale from extreme fear (saturated forest green) through neutral (white) to extreme greed (saturated burgundy). Reveals seasonal sentiment regimes at a glance. | free |
cycle-month-heatmap | Cycle Month Performance Heatmap | Month-over-month BTC returns (close to close) laid out as a 12-month by multi-year matrix - emerald for positive months, red for negative, intensity scaled to magnitude - with the historical median per calendar month as a footer row. Calendar seasonality read at a glance, on closed months only. | pro |
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metrics listed do not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.