Oil vs BTC Correlation
Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between WTI Crude Oil log-returns and BTC log-returns, bounded in [-1, +1]. Positive values indicate a risk-on regime where BTC trades with the commodity complex; negative values indicate decoupling and a 'digital gold' narrative.
What is it?
This chart overlays the price of WTI Crude Oil with Bitcoin's price and computes a rolling 90-day Pearson correlation coefficient between the two. Oil is the world's most important commodity - it drives inflation, central bank policy, and the global 'risk-on / risk-off' narrative. When Bitcoin and oil are positively correlated, it typically means BTC is trading as a risk asset, moving with the economic cycle. When the correlation turns negative, BTC is behaving more like 'digital gold' - an alternative store of value that diverges from traditional commodities. The shifting correlation reveals which narrative is driving Bitcoin at any given moment: inflation hedge, risk asset, or something entirely new.
How to read
Two lines are displayed: WTI Crude Oil price (primary line, left axis) and BTC price (orange overlay, right axis, log scale). The 90-day rolling Pearson correlation coefficient is computed and attached to each datapoint as hover-tooltip metadata - the numeric value (ranging from -1 to +1) appears when you hover over any day. Vertical markers annotate oil and macro events: WTI negative prices Apr 2020, Russia-Ukraine Feb 2022 (correlation peak +0.75), OPEC+ 2M bpd cut Oct 2022, Dec 2018 crash, OPEC 2014 production hold - each marker carries a source link visible on hover. A sustained positive correlation (>+0.5) visible in tooltip values indicates a risk-on regime where BTC trades with the commodity complex; below -0.3 indicates decoupling. Toggle markers via the 'Événements' button in the toolbar.
Key zones
• Correlation > +0.6: Strong risk-on regime - BTC moves with oil and equities. This occurred during much of 2021-2022 when both assets were driven by inflation and monetary policy narratives. • Correlation +0.2 to +0.6: Moderate positive - BTC is partially influenced by macro but has independent drivers. • Correlation -0.2 to +0.2: Neutral zone - BTC is driven by crypto-native factors (halving cycles, ETF flows, on-chain dynamics). • Correlation < -0.3: Decoupling - BTC is acting as an alternative asset. This occurred notably in late 2023 and early 2024 when oil fell on recession fears while BTC rallied on ETF anticipation. • Historical extremes: The correlation reached +0.75 during the Q1 2022 commodity spike (Ukraine war + inflation), and touched -0.45 in December 2023.
What to observe
• Regime shifts: When the 90-day correlation crosses zero and sustains for 2+ weeks, this indicates a narrative shift. The cross from positive to negative in late 2023 preceded one of BTC's strongest multi-quarter rallies on record. • Oil spikes without BTC reaction: If oil surges (geopolitical event, supply shock) but BTC remains flat or rises, this is a strong indication that BTC has decoupled from the commodity complex. • Simultaneous decline: Both oil and BTC falling together (positive correlation in a downturn) indicates a broad risk-off liquidation - typically associated with significant market stress. • Divergence at extremes: When the correlation reaches ±0.6 and reverses, the subsequent correlation regime typically lasts 3-6 months. • Oil as inflation proxy: Rising oil prices eventually force central banks to tighten, which pressures BTC. The lag is typically 3-6 months - watch oil for early warnings of policy shifts.
Historical context
The oil-BTC correlation has evolved significantly as Bitcoin has matured. In 2013-2016, the correlation was essentially zero - Bitcoin was too small and too crypto-native for macro to matter. From 2017-2019, episodic correlations appeared during broad risk events (December 2018 oil crash + BTC crash). The regime shift came in March 2020: the COVID crash produced the first sustained high positive correlation (+0.7) as both assets crashed together in the liquidity crisis, then recovered together during the stimulus era. Throughout 2021 and early 2022, oil and BTC moved remarkably in sync as the 'everything rally' narrative dominated. The Ukraine war (February 2022) briefly spiked both, but then monetary tightening crashed BTC while oil remained elevated - breaking the correlation to negative. The 2023-2024 period showed BTC increasingly decoupling from oil as institutional adoption (ETF narrative) provided an independent demand driver unrelated to the commodity cycle.
Expert notes
The Pearson correlation is computed on daily log-returns over a 90-day rolling window, not on price levels - this avoids spurious correlation from common trends. A 90-day window balances responsiveness (shorter windows are noisy) with stability (longer windows lag). For academic context, Baur & Dimpfl (2021) found the oil-BTC correlation to be regime-dependent and non-stationary, which supports using rolling correlations rather than static measures. The correlation is strongly influenced by the VIX: during high-VIX environments (>25), cross-asset correlations tend to converge toward +1 (the 'correlation crisis' effect). Practically, a sustained negative oil-BTC correlation is one of the most bullish macro indications for Bitcoin, as it implies the market is pricing BTC as an independent asset class rather than a leveraged beta on the economic cycle.
Common mistakes to avoid
• 'Oil rises so BTC should rise too': This only holds when they are positively correlated (risk-on regime). In a decoupling regime, oil can rise on supply constraints while BTC falls on monetary tightening, or vice versa. • Using instantaneous correlation: A single day of both rising does not mean they are correlated. The 90-day rolling window is the minimum meaningful timeframe. • Ignoring causality direction: Oil prices affect BTC (through inflation and policy channels), but BTC does not meaningfully affect oil. The relationship is asymmetric. • Assuming the correlation regime is permanent: The oil-BTC correlation has shifted regime approximately every 6-12 months since 2020. What was true last quarter may not hold this quarter. • Confusing nominal oil price with real oil price: In a dollar-weakening environment, oil can rise in nominal terms but be flat in real terms - the BTC indication comes from the real move, not the nominal one.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/oil-btc-correlation/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "oil-btc-correlation",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.