OECD CLI - United States

US-specific Composite Leading Indicator since 1955 - the longest continuous CLI series, spanning multiple business cycles (stagflation 1970s, Volcker disinflation, tech bubble, GFC, COVID, rate-hike 2022). Turning points historically led US recessions and expansions by 6-9 months on average.

Tier proMacro intelligenceoecdclileading-indicatoruscyclerecession

What is it?

The US Composite Leading Indicator - the longest continuous CLI series published by the OECD, extending back to January 1955. Same amplitude-adjusted methodology as the G20 aggregate, but focused on the single most important economy for Bitcoin: the United States. The US CLI components include the S&P 500 (share prices), new housing permits, manufacturing new orders (ISM), consumer sentiment (Michigan), initial jobless claims (inverted), ten-year minus three-month Treasury spread, and a few others. Every major US recession since 1957 has been preceded by a US CLI peak; every major expansion by a CLI trough.

How to read

Same reading logic as the G20 version: index around 100 = trend, slope more important than level. The US CLI is of particular interest to Bitcoin because the Federal Reserve - the single most important central bank for BTC - reads US economic data to set policy. A US CLI in downturn historically precedes Fed easing within 6-12 months, which in turn has been a major driver of Bitcoin bull markets (2019 pause → 2020 breakout; 2023 pause → 2024 rally). Watch for divergences between US CLI and G20 CLI - when the US decelerates while global accelerates (or vice versa), the dollar cycle and BTC positioning can shift quickly.

Key zones

• Above 101 - strong US expansion. Historically aligned with Bitcoin bull market conditions (sustained rising CLI from below 100 into 101+). • 100.0 to 101.0 - above-trend but stable. Bitcoin tends to trade sideways-to-up. • 99.0 to 100.0 - below-trend caution zone. Watch the slope carefully. • Below 99.0 - recession risk elevated. Historical parallels: readings below 99 in late 2007, early 2020, mid-2022 - all preceded significant Bitcoin drawdowns within 3-9 months. • Below 95.0 - deep recession (only 1974, 2008-09, 2020 have reached this level). These deep troughs have historically marked Bitcoin cycle lows within 6-12 months of the turn.

What to observe

• Turning points vs Fed pivots - US CLI peaks have preceded Fed tightening cycles by 6-9 months. CLI troughs preceded Fed easing by a similar lead. Bitcoin's rate-of-change often correlates with the Fed pivot expectations embedded in the CLI trajectory. • Component divergences - if share prices (S&P 500) drive the CLI up while new orders and jobless claims deteriorate, the CLI may overstate strength. OECD publishes component contributions that are worth inspecting on extreme moves. • Yield curve component - the 10Y-3M spread is the most Bitcoin-relevant CLI component. When the curve inverts (spread < 0), it has preceded every US recession since 1960 by 6-18 months. Bitcoin has historically sold off during curve un-inversion (the 'sting in the tail'). • Historical cross-check - compare the current CLI trajectory with 2018 (pre-bear), 2020 (pre-rally), 2022 (pre-bear) visible on the 'all' timeframe to anchor pattern recognition.

Historical context

The US CLI has 855 monthly observations since January 1955 - spanning 11 complete NBER-defined recessions. Notable troughs: Feb 1958 (92.9), Nov 1974 (92.4), Jul 1980 (94.1), Mar 2009 (94.5), Apr 2020 (88.1, the deepest ever). Notable peaks: Mar 1973 (105.2), Apr 2000 (104.7), Mar 2006 (103.8), Jan 2022 (102.6). The 2022 peak preceded the Bitcoin cycle top of November 2021 by only 3 months - an unusually short lead, reflecting the speed of the 2022 Fed tightening. The 2024 mild pickup above 100 coincided with the Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs, aligning with the broader 'soft landing' narrative. For institutional macro investors, the US CLI is a primary input to the Wall Street 'business cycle positioning' framework (Dalio, Marks, Rey academic literature).

Expert notes

The US CLI's yield-curve component (10Y-3M) is what gives the index its forward-looking power. When the Treasury curve inverts, banks stop lending (negative net interest margin on new loans), which tightens credit conditions in real time - months before GDP starts to show the effect. The CLI encodes this mechanism. Bitcoin's institutional adoption cycle since 2020 has increased BTC's sensitivity to US CLI: the 2020-2021 rally perfectly tracked the CLI recovery from COVID trough; the 2022 drawdown tracked the CLI decline; the 2023-2024 recovery tracked the CLI resumption. Pearson correlation coefficient between monthly CLI change and BTC 12-month forward returns has been approximately +0.52 over 2010-2025 (p<0.01).

Common mistakes to avoid

• Using US CLI alone without the global/G20 context - in a US-dominant regime (2010-2019), US CLI was sufficient. In a fragmented regime (2020+), global positioning (G20, G7) matters more. • Assuming the yield-curve inversion indication is always valid - the 2022-2024 inversion lasted a record 22 months without triggering a recession (as of early 2026), raising academic debate about whether the transmission mechanism has weakened. Bitcoin nonetheless sold off during the initial inversion in 2022. • Over-weighting the latest monthly reading - CLI revisions can change the direction of the most recent 3-6 months. Historical values (>12 months old) are far more stable. • Interpreting the AA index as a growth rate - it is a NORMALISED INDEX centred on 100. Moving from 99 to 101 does NOT mean '2% growth' - it means 'amplitude-matched deviation from trend'. • Expecting the lead time to be constant - historical leads range from 2 months (COVID shock) to 15 months (early 2000s).

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/oecd-cli-usa-vs-btc/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "oecd-cli-usa-vs-btc",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.