Gold (PAXG) / BTC Ratio
How many bitcoins one ounce of gold buys, using PAXG (a token backed one-to-one by physical gold) as the ounce and the BTC price as the denominator. A rising ratio means PAXG is outperforming BTC over the window; a falling ratio means BTC is outperforming PAXG. The ratio measures relative performance, not the flows behind it: on its own it demonstrates neither a move toward traditional safe havens nor anything about the digital gold thesis. History starts with the first PAXG/USD quote served (29 October 2019).
What is it?
How many bitcoins does one ounce of gold buy? This deceptively simple question captures one of the most important debates in modern finance: is Bitcoin 'digital gold,' and if so, is it on a path to match - or surpass - the market value of physical gold? Gold has been humanity's primary store of value for over 5,000 years. It is scarce, durable, divisible, and universally recognized. Bitcoin shares many of these properties - scarcity (21 million cap), durability (the blockchain is permanent), divisibility (100 million satoshis per coin) - but adds digital portability and programmability that gold cannot match. The Gold/BTC Ratio divides the price of one ounce of gold by the price of one Bitcoin. The ounce is read through PAXG, a token backed one-to-one by physical gold held in LBMA-accredited vaults: one PAXG is redeemable for one troy ounce. When the ratio FALLS, Bitcoin is outperforming gold over the window shown. When it RISES, gold is outperforming Bitcoin. The ratio compares two performances: it does not show where capital is flowing, nor why, and it does not validate the digital gold thesis; a relative move can come from either leg, and the chart does not separate the two. This chart is presented on a logarithmic scale by default because the ratio still spans a wide range between bull-market lows and bear-market highs. Its history starts with the first PAXG/USD spot quote the source serves (Kraken, 29 October 2019): no data point exists before that date, and the chart does not claim any.
How to read
The single line shows BTC per ounce of gold on a log scale. A DECLINING line means Bitcoin is outperforming gold over the window shown; a RISING line means gold is outperforming Bitcoin over that window. The ratio compares two performances: it can fall while both assets rise, if Bitcoin rises faster, and it can rise while both fall, if gold falls more slowly. Note: the overlay toggle shows the BTC price on the right axis; it is redundant here, because the ratio already contains BTC in its denominator. Two caveats come with the proxy: PAXG can trade at a small premium or discount to the LBMA gold fixing, and it quotes continuously - weekends included - while the fixing publishes on business days only. The series starts on 29 October 2019, at the first PAXG/USD quote the source serves; nothing is plotted before that date.
Key zones
In November 2021, the ratio hit approximately 0.028 (about 36 ounces of gold per BTC, or equivalently ~$69,000 BTC vs ~$1,800 gold). This was the tightest the ratio had been at that point in the token's history. During the 2022 bear market, the ratio climbed back to ~0.11 as BTC fell to $16,000 while gold held near $1,800. By early 2024, as BTC recovered past $70,000 and gold simultaneously rallied above $2,000, the ratio compressed again to ~0.03. These readings are approximate by construction: they are read from the gold and BTC prices of those episodes, and the token's premium or discount against the fixing adds a small margin. The token's series begins on 29 October 2019, so no earlier zone is claimed here.
What to observe
The only reading this chart supports is the direction of the ratio, which compares two performances over the window shown: a rising ratio means gold outperformed Bitcoin over that window, a falling ratio means Bitcoin outperformed gold. The chart does not date a cycle and does not measure how long a phase lasts. Both assets can rise at the same time: the ratio falls only if Bitcoin rises faster than gold, and it rises if gold rises faster. Both can also fall at the same time, and the ratio then follows the relative speed of the two declines. The ratio compares two performances: it does not show where capital is flowing, nor why either leg moved. The series starts at the first PAXG/USD quote the source serves (29 October 2019), so no reading is claimed before that date.
Historical context
Gold's total above-ground stock is approximately 210,000 metric tons, representing a multi-trillion-dollar market value at prevailing spot prices. Bitcoin's fully diluted supply is hard-capped at 21 million coins. For Bitcoin to reach 'gold parity' - matching gold's total market capitalization - each BTC would need to price at several hundred thousand dollars, implying a Gold/BTC ratio well below 0.005. The series shown here begins at the first PAXG/USD quote the source serves (29 October 2019), and its history spans the post-2019 monetary era: the 2020-2021 cycle, when gold performed well (+25% from its COVID low) but BTC outperformed it by roughly 20 to 1; the 2022 drawdown that expanded the ratio; and the post-halving cycle, when gold reached all-time highs driven by central bank buying and BTC still compressed the ratio further.
Expert notes
The Gold/BTC ratio is best analyzed in conjunction with the 'digital gold premium' - the extent to which BTC's market cap exceeds what would be justified by its monetary velocity alone. Academic research (Bouri et al., 2020) has shown that gold and Bitcoin act as complementary safe havens: gold dominates during geopolitical crises while Bitcoin dominates during monetary crises. The ratio's behavior during different crisis types confirms this: during the Russia-Ukraine war (2022), gold outperformed BTC; during the US banking crisis (March 2023), BTC outperformed gold. Central bank gold buying (record 1,136 tonnes in 2022, 1,037 tonnes in 2023) creates a floor under gold that makes the ratio's continued decline even more impressive - BTC is winning despite gold receiving unprecedented institutional support. Keep the proxy in mind: the token tracks the ounce within a small premium or discount, and it carries issuer and redemption risk that the metal itself does not.
Common mistakes to avoid
The most dangerous error is extrapolating the ratio mechanically. The fact that Bitcoin has gained orders of magnitude against gold over its history does not mean the next step is inevitable or imminent - past performance is not indicative of future results, and each subsequent order of magnitude requires exponentially more capital. Another common mistake is viewing this ratio as a zero-sum competition: 'money leaving gold for Bitcoin.' In practice, the two assets often rally simultaneously during monetary debasement fears, and many institutional portfolios hold both. The ratio's decline reflects BTC's faster growth rate, not gold outflows. Finally, analysts sometimes cite the Gold/BTC ratio reaching new lows as 'proof' that Bitcoin has replaced gold. This ignores that gold ETFs still hold hundreds of billions of dollars in assets, central banks hold trillions of dollars in reserves, and gold's daily trading volume in London alone exceeds BTC's global daily volume. The displacement is gradual and generational, not sudden. And the numerator is a token, not the metal: a premium, a discount, or an issuer event would move the ratio without any change in the gold market.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/metrics/gold-btc-ratio/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "gold-btc-ratio",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.