WTI / BTC Correlation 90d
Pearson rolling 90-day correlation between WTI crude oil and BTC daily returns. Above +0.6 = strong risk-on regime (oil and BTC move together). Below -0.3 = decoupling regime (BTC behaves independently from commodity risk).
What is it?
This metric computes the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between daily returns of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI DCOILWTICO from FRED) and BTC daily returns. The formula is correlation(returns_wti_24h, returns_btc_24h) over a 90-day rolling window. The correlation typically oscillates between -0.5 and +0.7 across macro regimes. The reading reflects whether WTI and BTC are jointly classified as risk-on assets by global liquidity flows or are diverging through different cycle phases.
How to read
The chart displays the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation as a single yellow line on the Y-axis bounded between -1 and +1. Threshold lines mark the key regime boundaries: solid green at +0.6 (strong risk-on threshold), dashed gray at 0 (neutral boundary), solid red at -0.3 (negative decoupling threshold). Colored zones reinforce the regimes: green band above +0.6 (strong risk-on) and red band below -0.3 (negative decoupling). The BTC overlay can be toggled on for cross-asset context - it renders on a separate right axis without compressing the correlation scale. The enriched tooltip shows current correlation value at hover.
Key zones
Calibrated to actual historical observed range (post-2010 BTC liquid era, ~-0.30 to +0.40 typical bounds). Above +0.3: strong risk-on regime, WTI and BTC move together (peaks reached during March 2020 COVID +0.40 and Q1 2022 Ukraine commodity inflation crisis). +0.15 to +0.3: moderate risk-on regime. -0.15 to +0.15: neutral regime, WTI and BTC without common direction (most common state). Below -0.15: negative decoupling (BTC decouples from risk-on commodity, observed late 2023 BTC ETF inflows while WTI declined, troughs around -0.25).
What to observe
• Sustained phases above +0.3 as global risk-on regime markers (March 2020 COVID +0.40, Q1 2022 Ukraine commodity inflation crisis) • Sustained decouplings below -0.15 as BTC store-of-value maturation markers (late 2023 BTC ETF inflows while WTI declines, troughs around -0.25) • Rapid transitions (correlation moving from +0.3 to -0.15 in a few weeks) as tradFi macro events (monetary policy changes, oil shocks) • Couple with VIX above 25 to validate crisis correlation regime
Historical context
The WTI/BTC correlation has been trackable since 2010 (BTC minimum liquidity post-Mt. Gox). Strong positive correlation phases above +0.6 coincided with the March 2020 COVID crash (global liquidity shocks), the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (commodity inflation crisis), and the December 2018 risk-off deleveraging crash. Notable decoupling phases include late 2023 with correlation around -0.45 during BTC ETF approval inflows while WTI declined, and November 2022 FTX capitulation when BTC and WTI diverged. The 90-day rolling correlation methodology is referenced by academic publications on cross-asset correlation analytics.
Expert notes
Pearson correlation captures linear co-variation but not non-linear relationships such as asymmetric tail behavior. Complement with VIX above 25 (crisis regime) analysis and BTC ETF flows for cross-source validation. The 90-day window balances reactivity and short-term noise smoothing. A shorter window such as 30 days increases sensitivity to punctual events; a longer window such as 180 days smooths more but delays regime change detection. **Cross-rubric reading** - WTI/BTC correlation is intrinsically a cross-asset macro reading. No on-chain counterpart is semantically applicable, since price correlation captures a market dynamic, not a blockchain primitive.
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not confuse correlation with causation - WTI doesn't cause BTC nor vice-versa, they can react simultaneously to a common factor such as liquidity or risk sentiment. Do not extrapolate the current correlation as stable over time - it changes with macro regimes. Do not infer an arbitrage opportunity from high correlation - liquidity and transaction costs limit practical exploitation.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-oil-btc-correlation/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-oil-btc-correlation",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.