BTC / M2 Correlation
Rolling 26-week Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and US M2 money supply weekly returns, bounded -1 to +1. Computed on a weekly cadence to match the native publication rhythm of M2 (a daily correlation on an interpolated series would be an artifact). Reads how tightly BTC has tracked monetary expansion and contraction phases.
What is it?
This metric computes the rolling 26-week Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and US M2 money supply weekly returns, bounded between -1 and +1. M2 aggregates cash, checking and savings deposits and close substitutes: the broadest commonly used gauge of US money supply. Because M2 is published at low frequency with a multi-week lag, the correlation is computed on a weekly cadence (Friday resampling): a daily correlation against an interpolated M2 series would be a statistical artifact, with near-zero returns six days out of seven.
How to read
Three series are displayed on a weekly cadence: the correlation line (primary, bounded -1 to +1), the M2 level and the BTC price for context, with a zero line. Sustained positive readings describe liquidity-driven regimes where monetary expansion and BTC appreciation moved together. Readings near zero describe phases where BTC decoupled from the money supply impulse. The publication lag of M2 (several weeks) means the latest point consolidates with subsequent releases.
Key zones
Readings above +0.4 describe strong liquidity regimes, the configuration the monetary thesis of BTC expects. The -0.2 to +0.2 band is the neutral zone, frequent because M2 moves slowly relative to BTC. Sustained negative readings are historically rare and have coincided with phases where BTC rallied against monetary contraction or fell during expansion: exceptions worth examining individually.
What to observe
Watch the reading around monetary regime turns: the transition from contraction to renewed expansion has historically been the fertile configuration for the liquidity thesis. Compare with the global M2 overlay charts: US M2 is one component of global liquidity, and divergences between the US lens and the global lens carry information about the dollar channel. Persistence over multiple months distinguishes a liquidity regime from noise.
Historical context
The 2020 to 2021 expansion produced the canonical positive episode: record M2 growth accompanied the strongest BTC appreciation phase of that cycle. The 2022 contraction, the first meaningful M2 decline in decades, coincided with the deep BTC drawdown. Later phases showed a looser, regime-dependent link as expansion normalised.
Expert notes
The 26-week window on weekly returns spans about six months of joint observations: comparable in regime detection speed to the 90-day daily windows used elsewhere in this family, while respecting the native cadence of M2. M2 is not seasonally adjusted in this pipeline; week-to-week seasonal wiggles average out within the window. Money supply affects asset prices with lags that a contemporaneous correlation does not capture; lead-lag analysis is a complementary, distinct exercise.
Common mistakes to avoid
Money printing does not mechanically pump BTC: the correlation is regime-dependent and has spent long stretches near zero. A positive reading is not a valuation statement: it describes co-movement, not fair value. Do not compare this weekly-cadence reading directly with the daily-cadence correlations in this family without noting the different window semantics.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-corr-btc-m2/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-corr-btc-m2",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.