Trinity Yield Curve Composite (TYCC)TRINITY EXCLUSIVE
Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 aggregating 5 yield curve regime components: 2y10y spread + 3m10y spread + Real Yields TIPS 10y + Carry Trade pressure + USDX strength.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
TYCC is a Trinity proprietary composite scored 0-100 that aggregates the five most actionable components of the yield curve and dollar regime: the 2y-10y Treasury spread (the most-watched recession indicator), the 3m-10y spread (the NY Fed-preferred recession metric), 10y TIPS real yields, a Trinity Carry Trade Detection score, and the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index. Each component is normalised via 5-year rolling percentile rank to make the composite robust across multi-cycle regimes. The result is a single bounded score that captures whether the macro yield-and-dollar environment is broadly bullish or bearish for risk assets.
How to read
Values above 70 indicate a risk-on macro regime - steepening curve, low or negative real yields, weak dollar, low carry trade pressure. Values below 30 indicate a risk-off regime - yield curve inversion, rising real yields, strong dollar, high carry trade pressure. The 50-line is the 5-year rolling neutral. The decomposition sub-pane reveals which of the five components is driving the score, providing transparency on whether the regime is rates-driven, dollar-driven, or driven by curve shape. Vertical markers annotate FOMC decisions, ECB Governing Council rate decisions, BoE MPC, and major yield curve inversion events.
Key zones
• Above 80: Extremely accommodative macro regime - historical late-bear / early-bull contexts • 70-80: Accommodative regime - broadly favourable to risk assets • 50-70: Neutral-to-positive transition • 30-50: Neutral-to-negative transition, watch for component divergences • Below 30: Restrictive macro regime - historical late-bull / early-bear contexts • Below 20: Extremely restrictive - yield curve inversion + rising real yields + strong dollar simultaneously
What to observe
• TYCC crossing above 50 from sustained below: macro regime flip toward risk-on, often early-cycle accumulation phase • TYCC crossing below 50 from sustained above: macro regime flip toward risk-off, late-cycle warning • TYCC declining while equities rally: regime fragility, divergence between price and macro fundamentals • Single-component dominance (e.g., TYCC drop driven entirely by USDX): localised stress, less durable than 5-component agreement • Sustained TYCC > 75 alongside tightening Fed: rare regime, often precedes durable risk asset rallies
Historical context
Across past Bitcoin cycles, TYCC reached values above 80 during the late-2020 expansion phase (post-COVID Fed accommodation), the late-2023 disinflation pivot, and selected mid-cycle pause periods. Values below 30 marked the late-2018 Fed tightening cycle, the mid-2022 yield curve inversion alongside aggressive Fed hiking, and brief stress events. The 5-year rolling percentile normalisation ensures historical comparisons remain meaningful even as the absolute levels of yields and the dollar index drift over decades.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - No industry reference publication. Trinity proprietary moat composite (P3 tier, signature feature 2/6). Component weights are calibrated empirically via walk-forward validation across multiple yield curve regimes; the precise weighting is part of the proprietary moat and not disclosed publicly. Cross-rubric disambiguation §12.4: TYCC operates in the Macro Intelligence scope (input FRED Treasury + TIPS + Trade-Weighted Dollar). Distinct from Trinity Composite Score (Cycle Intelligence v2 rubric, scoring multi-rubric cycle phase). Distinct from pi-eth-btc-ratio-regime (Price Intelligence v2, ETH/BTC pair regime). The three readings are complementary: TYCC = macro tactical regime (weeks/months), TCS = strategic cycle scoring, eth-btc-ratio = crypto cross-asset regime.
Common mistakes to avoid
• 'TYCC > 70 = automatic risk-on entry' - TYCC is a regime indicator, not a timing tool. Macro regimes can persist for months without triggering immediate price moves. • 'TYCC < 30 = automatic risk-off' - Restrictive macro regimes have historically lasted 6-18 months. Patience in transitions matters more than reaction to single readings. • 'TYCC replaces individual components' - TYCC complements them. Use the decomposition sub-pane to identify which component is driving the score for diagnostic clarity.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-trinity-yield-curve-composite/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-trinity-yield-curve-composite",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.