BTC / Gold Correlation
Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and gold daily returns, bounded -1 to +1. Puts the digital gold thesis to the test of the data: sustained positive readings show both assets responding to the same monetary forces, while readings near zero show BTC trading on its own drivers. Complements the Gold / BTC ratio, which compares levels rather than co-movement.
What is it?
This metric computes the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and gold daily returns, bounded between -1 and +1. Gold is the reference monetary metal and the benchmark against which the digital gold thesis is stated. The gold series used here is the same market index that powers the Gold / BTC ratio chart, ensuring internal consistency across the library. Correlation is computed on returns over a 90-day rolling window.
How to read
Three series are displayed: the correlation line (primary, bounded -1 to +1), the gold index level and the BTC price for context, with a zero line. Sustained positive readings describe phases where both assets respond to the same monetary forces (real rates, dollar, liquidity). Readings around zero describe BTC trading on idiosyncratic crypto drivers. Negative readings, historically less frequent, describe opposition phases often tied to risk rotation between the two stores of value narratives.
Key zones
Readings above +0.4 describe strong monetary co-movement phases, historically visible when real rates and the dollar dominated both assets. The -0.2 to +0.2 band is the idiosyncratic zone, common across the history. Readings below -0.2 flag rotation phases and have tended to be short-lived. Boundaries are calibrated on the observed historical range as reading aids.
What to observe
Track whether the correlation rises when macro uncertainty rises: a joint bid for both stores of value pushes the reading up and is the signature of the monetary channel. Cross-read with the BTC / M2 correlation: simultaneous elevated readings on gold and M2 lenses describe liquidity-driven regimes. Watch divergences with the Gold / BTC ratio: the ratio can trend while co-movement stays high, and the distinction between relative performance and co-movement is precisely what this pairing reveals.
Historical context
The recorded history shows alternating phases: episodes of joint monetary bid (both assets rising with falling real rates), long idiosyncratic stretches where BTC followed crypto-native cycles, and rotation episodes around major regime shifts such as the post-2024 institutionalisation of BTC through spot vehicles, which tightened its link to macro allocators that also hold gold.
Expert notes
Gold trades on a business-day cadence while BTC trades continuously; the alignment forward-fills gold over weekends, slightly dampening weekend co-movement. The gold series is a market index published with a short lag. A 90-day window will lag turning points by construction: a regime that begins today reaches full weight in the reading only after the window rolls through it.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high correlation with gold does not make BTC a proven store of value: co-movement over 90 days is not a statement about long-run purchasing power. A near-zero reading does not invalidate the digital gold thesis either; it locates the current regime. Correlation says nothing about relative magnitude: gold and BTC volatilities differ by a large factor, so identical correlation can hide very different risk contributions.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/macro-v2-corr-btc-gold/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-corr-btc-gold",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.