Volatility Decay Overlay
Annualized 30-day realized volatility of Bitcoin daily returns, smoothed by a 365-day moving average, sliced by halving cycle and aligned by days-since-cycle-low. The multi-cycle overlay shows three successive cycles in superposition. The levels observed across cycles are a factual reading of the series; the chart does not demonstrate their cause.
What is it?
This chart compares annualized realized volatility of daily Bitcoin log returns over 30 days, smoothed by a 365-day moving average. Segments from three cycles are aligned by days since their low. Level differences are observations; the calculation does not demonstrate their cause.
How to read
The chart shows three overlaid line segments, each representing one halving cycle: cycle 4 (post-2022 low, primary line in the cycle accent color), cycle 3 (post-2018 low, terracotta), and cycle 2 (post-2015 low, teal). The horizontal axis carries the cycle 4 reference dates, stated under the axis, while each earlier cycle is aligned by days-since-cycle-low counted from its own low (0 at each cycle low, increasing to the right); the vertical axis is the 365-day smoothed annualized realized volatility, expressed as a percentage. To read the chart: pick a horizontal position (a particular days-since-low value, e.g. day 365 = one year into the cycle) and compare the vertical heights of the three lines at that position. If the cycle-4 line sits structurally below the cycle-3 line at the same days-since-low, this is the decay reading visible at that cycle phase. The two reference zones - green low-vol regime (0-80%) and amber high-vol regime (120-250%) - provide cycle-independent reference levels for absolute volatility magnitude.
Key zones
The 0-80% and 120-250% bands provide low and high realized-volatility references. At the same distance from each cycle low, compare the levels actually plotted. Their ordering can vary; monotonic decay across cycles is not imposed by the calculation.
What to observe
Compare heights, peaks and their positions in days since the low at identical horizontal coordinates. Also observe crossings and periods when curves move closer. The current cycle ends at the last available observation; an absent future segment is not a forecast.
Historical context
The multi-cycle comparison places each volatility trajectory on a common origin. It reveals different levels without attributing them to capitalization or an economic cause. Price history and cycle-low dates support calculation and alignment, not a causal demonstration.
Expert notes
The calculation uses the rolling standard deviation of log returns over 30 days, with at least 20 observations, annualized by the square root of 365 and expressed as a percentage. A 365-day rolling average, with at least 180 observations, smooths the result. Segments are sliced by cycle and aligned to the recent cycle's calendar by days since their low. Windows and alignment describe series processing; they establish no economic causality.
Common mistakes to avoid
Volatility measures variation magnitude, not direction. The 30-day window looks backward and 365-day smoothing does not forecast the following year. Compare identical horizontal positions; do not assume the latest cycle must be less volatile than the previous one.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/metrics/cycle-volatility-decay-overlay/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-volatility-decay-overlay",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.