Pi Cycle Bottom
Public-domain cycle-floor framework using two long moving averages of Bitcoin spot price - a 471-day simple moving average and a modified 150-day exponential moving average scaled by 0.745. The output spread between them captures the regime: positive readings have historically aligned with deep cycle accumulation; negative readings with expansion regimes.
What is it?
The Pi Cycle Bottom is a public-domain cycle-floor framework that uses two long moving averages of Bitcoin spot price to characterize regime: a 471-day simple moving average (MA_long) and a 150-day exponential moving average scaled by 0.745 (MA_short_modified). The two windows are canonical published values long established in the public on-chain literature. The primary backend output is the spread MA_long - MA_short_modified. When the spread is positive (MA_long sits above MA_short_modified), the configuration has historically aligned with cycle accumulation regimes - the long-term average has not yet been overtaken by the modified short-term reading. When the spread is negative, the configuration has historically aligned with expansion regimes where the modified short-term has overtaken the long-term reference.
How to read
The chart is read by overlaying the two moving averages directly on the spot-price log axis: when the 471-day simple moving average sits above the modified 150-day exponential moving average, the configuration is in the structural accumulation regime. When the modified 150-day exponential moving average crosses above the 471-day simple moving average, the configuration shifts to expansion. The output spread (the primary single-line backend series) carries the same regime signature - sign of the spread captures regime; magnitude captures the depth of regime separation.
Key zones
Two structural regimes: • Positive spread zone (forestier band): MA_long sits above MA_short_modified. Historically aligned with cycle accumulation regimes - deep cycle floors have registered positive spread readings persisting over multi-month windows. • Negative spread zone (no overlay band, neutral): MA_short_modified has overtaken MA_long. Historically aligned with cycle expansion regimes - bull-regime windows of past cycles have registered negative spread readings. The zero crossing is the structural pivot. Historical crossings from positive to negative have aligned with regime transitions out of cycle accumulation; crossings from negative back to positive have aligned with transitions out of cycle expansion.
What to observe
• Persistence of positive spread: multi-month dwellings with MA_long sitting above MA_short_modified have historically been the most durable cycle-accumulation regimes observed. Brief excursions are less informative than persistent windows. • Magnitude of zero-crossing: the speed and depth of a zero-crossing carries information. A rapid, deep crossing often differs structurally from a slow, shallow crossing. • Cross-confirmation with companion frameworks: the spread reading is more informative when combined with other cycle-floor frameworks such as the Top Cap vs CVDD oscillator, the Trolololo Trend Line baseline, and the four-year cycle pattern. Convergent readings across multiple independent gauges strengthen any individual interpretation. • Calendar drift in the windows: the 471-day and 150-day windows are calendar-day windows, not block-day windows. Over very long horizons, the gauge's calibration is anchored to calendar time; comparison across cycles uses calendar alignment.
Historical context
The 471-day and 150-day windows scaled by 0.745 originate from the public on-chain literature established for cycle-floor characterization. Across the cycles observed in Bitcoin's history (cycle bottoms in early 2015, late 2018, late 2022), the structural positive-spread zone has registered persistent readings near each cycle floor for multi-month durations. The negative-spread zone has registered persistent readings during the expansion phases of each cycle, with the depth of the negative spread tracking broadly with the strength of the expansion. The framework is an empirical historical regularity - past patterns may not recur, and Bitcoin cycle 5 may behave differently from prior cycles.
Expert notes
The 0.745 scaling factor on the 150-day exponential moving average is a calibrated parameter from the published framework - empirically derived from past cycle-bottom fits, not theoretically derived. The framework accuracy on cycles beyond the calibration window is an empirical question, not a mathematical guarantee. Atemporal interpretation only: the gauge characterizes regime structure based on historical patterns, and prudent use combines it with multiple independent gauges. The framework does not provide timing predictions and does not constitute investment advice.
Common mistakes to avoid
• Treating positive-spread readings as automatic buy zones: the framework characterizes structural regime, not entry timing. Cycles can dwell in the positive-spread zone for many months before resolving. • Treating zero crossings as definitive regime transitions: zero crossings are part of the regime narrative, but the framework does not establish exact transition timing - corroborating gauges should be consulted. • Mistaking moving-average smoothing for forward-looking projection: both windows are backward-looking statistics; they reflect what has already happened to the spot-price series, not what will happen next. • Standalone use for timing decisions: the gauge is a positioning indicator, not a timing tool. It indicates where the moving-average configuration sits within a regime taxonomy; it does not project when the regime will transition.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-pi-cycle-bottom/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-pi-cycle-bottom",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.