P&L vs MA365 Regime

What is it?

The P&L vs MA365 Regime chart traces a bull/bear regime oscillator computed as the distance between a P&L Index (the unrealized profit of the average network buyer, defined as (price - realized_price) / realized_price) and its own 365-day moving average. The zero line separates the two regimes structurally: above zero indicates the bull regime (green zone - historically associated with sustained price expansion phases), below zero indicates the bear regime (red zone - historically associated with contraction phases). The regimes have historically aligned with the bull and bear phases of Bitcoin across 3 complete cycles. The chart answers the question: 'are we structurally in bull or in bear?' without requiring a look at the absolute price. The chart is updated daily at publication T+0 (no editorial lag).

How to read

Read the chart in three layers. First, the primary line (Trinity Gold) shows the regime distance oscillator (P&L Index minus its MA365). Second, the zero line (Trinity Gold faded) marks the structural regime frontier. Third, the green forest filled zone above zero marks the bull regime, the burgundy filled zone below zero marks the bear regime. The right Y-axis shows BTC spot price for context (always-on overlay). Historical markers anchor past regime transitions: green up-arrows for bear→bull flips, red down-arrows for bull→bear flips. Read the chart structurally: the current sign of the regime distance immediately tells you which structural regime the network is in. The amplitude of the distance from zero indicates the strength of the regime.

Key zones

Bull regime (green forest fill, above zero): when the regime distance is positive, the P&L Index sits structurally above its 365-day average - the network has more unrealized profit than its trailing year average. Historically Bitcoin entered bull regimes during cycle expansion phases. Three documented historical bull regimes: late 2012/early 2013 → end 2013 (cycle 1), mid-2016 → end 2017 (cycle 2), mid-2020 → end 2021 (cycle 3). Bull regimes have historically lasted 12-18 months and have been associated with significant price appreciation. Bear regime (burgundy fill, below zero): when the regime distance is negative, the P&L Index sits structurally below its 365-day average - the network has less unrealized profit than its trailing year average. Three documented historical bear regimes: 2014 (cycle 1), 2018 (cycle 2), 2022 (cycle 3). Bear regimes have historically lasted 9-15 months and have been associated with significant price contraction. Frontier zone (zero line): the structural transition between regimes. Historically the line crossings have aligned with the major cycle transitions Bitcoin has experienced.

What to observe

• Regime flip (zero line crossing): when the regime distance crosses the zero line, the structural regime has flipped. Past flips have aligned with the major cycle transitions Bitcoin has experienced. • Regime amplitude: the distance from zero indicates the strength of the regime. A regime distance far from zero (high positive or high negative) indicates a strong, established regime. A regime distance near zero indicates a transition or weak regime. • Approach to flip: when the regime distance approaches zero from above (bull regime weakening), the structural transition to bear may be near. Conversely from below indicates approach to bull. • P&L Index behavior: when the raw P&L Index (value2) goes above 1.0, the average network buyer is in 100% unrealized profit - historically associated with later bull regime phases. When the P&L Index drops below -0.4, the average buyer is in -40% unrealized loss - historically associated with deep bear regime phases. • Cross-reference with on-chain composites: the regime indicator can be reinforced by on-chain composites (MVRV, NUPL) that show the underlying P&L distribution.

Historical context

The bull-bear cycle indicator framework via P&L Index distance from its 365-day moving average emerged in the on-chain literature as a robust regime detection method. The intuition is that the network's collective unrealized profit oscillates around its trailing year baseline, and the sign of the deviation captures the structural regime: above baseline = bull, below baseline = bear. The 365-day window smooths out short-term volatility while preserving cycle-relevant transitions. Trinity v3.0 reconstructs the framework independently from the public formula. Cycles 1-3 (2012-2022) have validated the regime classification with all major cycle transitions correctly identified. The realized price input (the on-chain proxy for the average buyer's cost basis) is computed by Trinity from the realized cap divided by the circulating supply, both available from Trinity's full-node Bitcoin data. The post-ETF cycle 4 has produced its own regime sequence as institutional flows reshape the network's P&L distribution.

Expert notes

The P&L Index uses two primary inputs: the daily close price and the realized price (= realized cap / circulating supply). The realized price is a Trinity-computed on-chain construct from Trinity's on-chain dataset. The P&L Index = (price - realized_price) / realized_price gives a unitless ratio interpretable as a fraction (e.g., 0.5 = 50% unrealized profit on average buyer). The 365-day moving average uses min_periods=180 to allow readings from mid-2012 onward. The regime distance = pnl_index - pnl_ma365 is the primary oscillator. Caveat: the realized price evolves only when on-chain coins move, so it lags during long dormancy periods. This lag is structural and not a defect - it captures the persistence of the average cost basis across long periods. The 365-day MA window choice balances responsiveness (shorter = more flips, more noise) and stability (longer = fewer flips, more delayed). Alternative windows (180-day, 730-day) would produce different regime sequences. Trinity chose 365-day for the canonical 1-year baseline.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Treating regime flips as immediate trade indications: the regime indicator is a structural classification, not a precise entry/exit point. Past flips marked transition periods that lasted weeks-to-months, not single-day events. • Ignoring regime weakness: a regime distance near zero (e.g., +0.05) is a weak regime - the network is on the cusp of transition. Reading near-zero distance as 'still in regime' misses the structural transition cue. • Confusing P&L Index spikes with price spikes: the P&L Index can spike for two reasons - price appreciation (numerator up) OR realized price stagnation (denominator stable). During long dormancy phases, the P&L Index can rise sharply even with modest price action. • Reading on a single timeframe: the chart's value is the multi-cycle regime context. Reading on 1y loses the cross-cycle comparability that makes the framework valuable. • Assuming the regime guarantees future price direction: the framework describes past regime durations and amplitudes. Past behavior does not guarantee future continuation, especially in the post-ETF regime where institutional flows reshape the P&L distribution.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-pnl-vs-ma365-regime/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "cycle-pnl-vs-ma365-regime",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

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Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.