Euphoria Zone Detector

What is it?

The Euphoria Zone Detector overlays the Bitcoin spot price with a colored zone formed by the confluence of two public-domain valuation frameworks: the Mayer Multiple (price divided by the 200-day simple moving average) at its 2.4× extreme threshold, and the power-law model's upper band at 3× the fundamental growth curve (equivalent to +200% deviation). The zone is rendered as a semi-transparent burgundy band on the logarithmic price chart. When the Bitcoin spot price enters this band - meaning it simultaneously exceeds the Mayer 2.4× threshold AND stays below the power-law top edge - the market is in a historically euphoria regime where multiple valuation frameworks indicate extreme conditions simultaneously. Three documented historical occurrences mark the past cycle peaks: December 2013, December 2017, April 2021. The chart is updated daily at publication T+0 (no editorial lag).

How to read

Read the chart in three layers. First, the primary line (Trinity Gold) shows the Bitcoin spot price on a logarithmic scale. Second, two dashed cyan lines mark the boundaries of the euphoria zone: the lower line is 2.4× the 200-day moving average (Mayer threshold), the upper line is 3× the power-law fundamental growth model. Third, when the price is between these two lines, a burgundy filled zone appears - indicating active euphoria regime. Three historical markers (red triangles) anchor the past instances when the price entered this zone. When the price is below the Mayer line, the zone is inactive - historically a more sustainable trading range. When the price is above the power-law top line, the price has exceeded the upper extreme of historical fundamentals - even more extreme than the euphoria zone. Read the chart structurally: the position of the price line relative to the two boundaries tells you whether the network is in normal trading range, euphoria zone, or beyond-extreme territory.

Key zones

Euphoria zone (burgundy fill, between Mayer 2.4× and power-law top 3×): when the spot price falls within this band, multiple valuation frameworks simultaneously indicate extreme regime. Three documented historical occurrences: December 2013 (cycle 1 peak $1,163, Mayer ratio ~3.0×, power-law deviation ~+180%), December 2017 (cycle 2 peak $19,783, Mayer ~3.7×, power-law +210%), April 2021 (cycle 3 first peak $63,518, Mayer ~2.5×, power-law +120% - cycle 3 amplitude compression evident). The cycle 3 occurrence was a borderline entry, reflecting amplitude compression. Beyond-extreme zone (above power-law top band, no fill): when the price exceeds the power-law top edge, the price has surpassed even the upper extreme of historical fundamentals. Rare and brief in past cycles - typically associated with the absolute peak day. Below Mayer zone (no fill, below Mayer 2.4× line): the bulk of inter-cycle time. Historically the price has spent the vast majority of inter-halving time below the Mayer threshold, which corresponds to historically sustainable trading regimes.

What to observe

• Approach to Mayer 2.4× line from below: when the price climbs toward 2.4× the 200-day moving average, the network is approaching the lower edge of the historical euphoria regime. The approach speed matters - slow approaches (multi-month) have historically been associated with sustained bull markets, fast approaches (weeks) with more volatile regimes. • Entry into euphoria zone: when the price crosses above Mayer 2.4× AND stays below the power-law top, the confluence regime activates. Historically the past three occurrences materialized within weeks of cycle peaks. • Time spent in euphoria zone: in past cycles, time in the zone has been brief - weeks rather than months. Extended time in the zone is historically unusual. • Exit pattern from euphoria zone: the zone can be exited either upward (price breaks above power-law top - beyond extreme) or downward (price falls back below Mayer 2.4× - normalization). Past cycle peaks followed shortly after either exit pattern. • Cycle 3 compression caveat: the April 2021 occurrence was at the lower edge of the euphoria zone (Mayer ~2.5×) compared to cycles 1-2 (Mayer ~3.0-3.7×). Future cycles in the post-ETF regime may continue this amplitude compression - the zone may be approached but not fully entered.

Historical context

The Mayer Multiple framework was established in the on-chain literature in the mid-2010s as a simple but powerful valuation oscillator: price divided by the 200-day moving average. The 2.4× threshold emerged from empirical observation of past cycle peaks. The power-law growth model was independently developed in the on-chain literature in the late 2010s. Combining the two frameworks into a confluence zone is a natural extension that increases robustness - a single framework can be misleading, but when both indicate extreme regime simultaneously, the lecture is statistically meaningful. Trinity v3.0 implements the combination as an overlay on the logarithmic price chart, with three historical markers anchoring the past zone-touched occurrences (December 2013, December 2017, April 2021). The progressive amplitude compression across cycles (Mayer 3.0× → 3.7× → 2.5× peaks) is documented and may continue in the post-ETF regime that began January 2024.

Expert notes

The Mayer Multiple uses a 200-day SIMPLE moving average of the daily closing price. The 2.4× threshold is an empirically derived constant from historical extremes - it is not a theoretical derivation. The power-law top band uses the same fundamental formula as the Power Law Oscillator Deviation chart (model = 10^-17 × days_since_genesis^5.8), multiplied by 3.0 to represent the upper extreme (equivalent to +200% deviation from the fundamental curve). The zone activation logic uses strict arithmetic: zone_active = (price > Mayer_lower) AND (price < power_law_top). When both conditions are satisfied, the burgundy fill renders; otherwise the zone is invisible. The combination is robust to single-framework noise - both must agree for activation. Caveat: the framework is descriptive of past patterns and not predictive - past zone entries do not guarantee future cycle peaks. Post-ETF amplitude compression may shift the calibration of the 2.4× threshold in future Trinity versions.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Treating zone entry as an immediate sell indication: the zone identifies a regime, not a precise entry/exit point. Past cycle peaks materialized within weeks of zone entry, not on the same day. • Assuming the zone always triggers at cycle peaks: the April 2021 occurrence was at the lower edge of the zone (Mayer 2.5×) - borderline. Cycle 3 amplitude compression made the zone narrowly entered. Future cycles may not enter the zone at all if compression continues. • Reading the zone in isolation: the framework is one of multiple valuation lenses. Combining with on-chain composites (NUPL, MVRV Z-Score) provides higher robustness than the zone alone. • Confusing the zone with a price prediction: the zone is descriptive of historical regimes, not a forecast. Past behavior does not guarantee future continuation. • Reacting in panic when zone activates: the zone provides a window for risk management, not a reason for immediate action. Past cycle peaks took weeks to materialize after zone entry - the window allows time for measured decisions.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-euphoria-zone-detector/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "cycle-euphoria-zone-detector",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

Related metrics

• cycle-mayer-multiple-heatmap
• cycle-power-law-oscillator-deviation
• cycle-pi-cycle-highs-and-lows

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.