Mayer Multiple Heatmap
Public-domain Mayer Multiple framework (ratio of price to 200-day simple moving average) rendered as a heatmap directly coloring each point of the BTC price curve. Color spectrum: blue (Mayer < 0.8 = cold accumulation), light blue (0.8-1.0 = near support), green (1.0-1.5 = neutral), yellow (1.5-2.0 = warming), orange (2.0-2.4 = hot), red (≥ 2.4 = euphoria extreme). The color sequence along the historical price curve reveals at a glance the valuation regimes traversed by Bitcoin across 15+ years - each cycle peak lights up red, each cycle bottom lights up blue.
What is it?
The Mayer Multiple Heatmap chart transforms the BTC price curve into a heatmap colored by the Mayer Multiple (the ratio of price to its 200-day simple moving average). Each price point is colored according to its Mayer Multiple value: blue (cheap, < 0.8), light blue (near support, 0.8-1.0), green (neutral, 1.0-1.5), yellow (warming, 1.5-2.0), orange (hot, 2.0-2.4), red (euphoria extreme, ≥ 2.4). The color sequence along the historical curve reveals at a glance the valuation regimes Bitcoin has traversed across 15+ years - each cycle paints its own colored fresco from deep blue to scarlet red. The chart is updated daily at publication T+0 (no editorial lag).
How to read
The chart displays the BTC spot price on a logarithmic scale with each point colored according to the Mayer Multiple value at that date. The color spectrum spans six ranges: deep blue (Mayer < 0.8) marks the cheap accumulation territory, light blue (0.8-1.0) marks the near-support territory, green (1.0-1.5) marks the neutral mid-cycle territory, yellow (1.5-2.0) marks the warming territory, orange (2.0-2.4) marks the hot territory, and red (≥ 2.4) marks the euphoria extreme territory. A vertical legend on the side of the chart explains the color mapping. Historical markers anchor past extreme readings: red down-arrows for past Mayer ≥ 2.4 (cycle peaks), blue up-arrows for past Mayer < 0.8 (cycle bottoms). Read the chart structurally: scan the color sequence along the historical curve to identify the valuation regime patterns Bitcoin has traversed across cycles.
Key zones
Cheap zone (deep blue, Mayer < 0.8): the price is more than 20% below its 200-day moving average. Historically Bitcoin entered cheap regimes during cycle bottoms. Three documented historical cheap occurrences: January 2015 (cycle 1 trough $152), December 2018 (cycle 2 trough $3,122), November 2022 (cycle 3 trough $15,460). The blue regime has historically lasted weeks to months and has been followed by sustained recoveries. Neutral zone (green, Mayer 1.0-1.5): the bulk of inter-cycle time. Historically Bitcoin spent the majority of inter-halving time in this neutral regime - neither cheap nor expensive. Warming/Hot zones (yellow 1.5-2.0, orange 2.0-2.4): the price is 50% to 140% above its 200-day moving average. Historically Bitcoin entered these zones during late bull market phases. The orange zone has typically marked the approach to cycle peaks. Euphoria zone (red, Mayer ≥ 2.4): the price is more than 140% above its 200-day moving average. Three documented historical euphoria occurrences: December 2013 (cycle 1 peak, Mayer ~3.0×), December 2017 (cycle 2 peak, Mayer ~3.7×), April 2021 (cycle 3 first peak, Mayer ~2.5×). The red regime has historically been brief (days to weeks) and has been associated with cycle peaks.
What to observe
• Color sequence patterns: scan the curve from left to right and observe the canonical sequence (blue → green → yellow → orange → red → orange → green → blue) for each cycle. Historically each cycle has painted this sequence but with progressively smaller red zones (cycle 1 large red, cycle 3 smaller red). • Red zone duration: historically the red zone has been brief (days to weeks) at cycle peaks. Extended time in red is unusual. • Blue zone duration: historically the blue zone has been longer (weeks to months) at cycle bottoms. Extended blue is structural. • Color transitions: rapid transitions (e.g., yellow to red within weeks) indicate fast bull market acceleration. Slow transitions (e.g., yellow to orange over months) indicate measured advancement. • Cycle 3 amplitude compression: cycle 3 first peak (April 2021) painted a smaller red zone (Mayer ~2.5×) compared to cycles 1-2 (Mayer 3.0-3.7×). Future cycles in the post-ETF regime may continue this compression - the red zone may not appear at all. • Cross-reference with Pi Cycle and Power Law charts: the Mayer heatmap is a visualization of one valuation framework. Combining with the Pi Cycle Highs & Lows or the Power Law Oscillator Deviation provides cross-framework confluence.
Historical context
The Mayer Multiple framework was established in the on-chain literature in the mid-2010s as a simple but powerful valuation oscillator. The 200-day moving average was chosen as the long-term reference because it captures roughly 6.5 months of price history - long enough to smooth short-term volatility while remaining responsive to cycle dynamics. The 2.4× and 0.8× threshold values emerged from empirical observation of past cycle extremes. Trinity v3.0 introduces the heatmap framing as a visualization upgrade: instead of plotting the Mayer Multiple as a separate oscillator below the price chart (the standard convention), the heatmap directly colors each point of the price curve. This enables instant visual scanning of the valuation history. Cycles 1-3 (2011-2022) have validated the framework with all major cycle peaks reaching the red zone and all major cycle bottoms reaching the blue zone. The progressive compression of the red zone size across cycles (large in cycle 1, smaller in cycle 3) is documented and may continue in the post-ETF regime.
Expert notes
The Mayer Multiple uses a SIMPLE 200-day moving average of the daily closing price (not exponential). The min_periods=100 parameter allows readings from approximately mid-2011 onward. The color thresholds (0.8, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.4) are empirically derived from past cycle extremes - they are not theoretical constants. The color spectrum is rendered by the frontend renderer based on the Mayer Multiple value at each date. The heatmap visualization is computationally intensive on long timeframes (15+ years of daily data) - Trinity uses lightweight-charts seriesColors override for efficient rendering. Caveat: the framework is descriptive of past patterns and not predictive - past color sequences do not guarantee future continuation. Post-ETF cycle 4 may produce a smaller red zone or no red zone at all if amplitude compression continues. The 200-day SMA window choice is canonical - alternative windows (100-day, 365-day) would produce different color sequences but the same conceptual framework.
Common mistakes to avoid
• Treating heatmap colors as immediate buy/sell indications: the colors describe historical valuation regimes, not actionable entry/exit points. Past cycle peaks materialized within weeks of red zone entry, not on the first red day. • Assuming static thresholds across all cycles: the Mayer color thresholds (0.8, 1.5, 2.4) are empirically derived from cycles 1-3. Future cycles in the post-ETF regime may exhibit different ranges as institutional flows compress amplitude. The red zone may shrink or disappear in future cycles. • Reading colors in isolation: the Mayer heatmap is one valuation framework. Combining with the Pi Cycle Highs & Lows or the Power Law Oscillator Deviation provides cross-framework confluence and higher robustness. • Confusing color persistence with regime strength: the network can paint several days of red without it indicating absolute peak. The red regime can also be transient (single-day touch). Read the color sequence as a structural context, not a precise indication. • Ignoring the SMA200 base: the Mayer Multiple depends on the 200-day moving average, which lags the spot price by definition. During fast price moves, the Mayer color may underrepresent or overrepresent the regime intensity for several days.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-mayer-multiple-heatmap/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-mayer-multiple-heatmap",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.