Repetition Fractal Cycle
Public-domain fractal cycle framework that overlays three idealised 4-year bell curves onto the Bitcoin log price line. Each bell anchors on a documented cycle bottom and partitions the inter-cycle window into four colour-coded phase bands (Accumulation / Markup / Distribution / Bear). Surfaces the long-horizon structural rhythm of Bitcoin price action at a single glance.
What is it?
The Repetition Fractal Cycle is a public-domain visualisation framework, originally articulated by João Wedson in 2021, that observes how Bitcoin spot price has historically traced an approximate four-year cyclical pattern anchored on each halving event. The chart renders a three-level fractal structure underneath the Bitcoin log price line, displaying four full cycles : three documented historical cycles plus the next projected one. Each cycle decomposes into a hierarchical 1-2-4 nesting : one large 4-year envelope bell (sky blue, background depth), two medium 2-year Short-Term-Cycle bells (purple) nested within the large one, and four small 1-year phase bells (green Accumulation, yellow Markup, orange Distribution, red Bear Market) nested within the medium ones. The phase names are written underneath the chart baseline in their respective colors, separated from the year-axis labels below them. Vertical markers in red anchor the documented cycle bottoms; vertical dashed yellow lines anchor the documented cycle tops. A vertical dashed line labelled "Maintenant" / "Now" marks the latest data date so the reader sees instantly where Bitcoin sits within the current cycle. The fourth (projected) cycle envelope is rendered with reduced opacity plus a dashed stroke to clearly signal its in-progress status. Data start in January 2015 to keep the long-horizon framework readable; the chart updates daily and the BTC line refreshes automatically as new prices come in.
How to read
Read the chart by tracing the Bitcoin log price line (white on dark themes, near-black on light theme) across the four cycle envelopes underneath. Each envelope spans 1461 days (the median halving period in calendar days) and the visual hierarchy guides the eye from background to foreground : the large sky-blue 4-year bell at the back, the two medium purple Short-Term-Cycle bells in the middle, the four small color-coded phase bells at the front. The current position is read in three steps : (1) locate the "Maintenant" / "Now" vertical dashed line at the latest data date; (2) identify which phase bell the line crosses — the green Accumulation, yellow Markup, orange Distribution, or red Bear Market bell, naming the current phase ; (3) confirm with the phase label written below the baseline directly under that bell. Cross-cycle comparison works similarly : the same phase color repeats across all four cycles, so the eye can compare Bitcoin's behaviour at "Markup year" of cycle 2 versus cycle 3 versus cycle 4 simply by looking at the price line above the yellow bell in each cycle. The chart is a long-horizon framework view designed for quarterly or annual reading, not for day-to-day positioning.
Key zones
Four small phase bells per cycle, each 1 year wide, color-coded with Apple iOS system tokens for instant identification : • Accumulation (green bell, year 1 post-bottom) : historically aligned with structural cycle accumulation regimes. On-chain activity and supply absorption typically recalibrate during this phase to the new post-halving issuance rate. • Markup (yellow bell, year 2 post-bottom) : mid-cycle expansion phase. Past cycles have registered the bulk of percentage price gains during this window. • Distribution (orange bell, year 3 post-bottom) : cycle peak window. Past cycle tops have historically materialised within this band. • Bear Market (red bell, year 4 post-bottom) : cycle drawdown phase ending at the next cycle bottom. Past cycle bears have unfolded through this window. Two medium Short-Term-Cycle bells (purple) sit above the four small phase bells, each spanning 2 years (year 1+2 then year 3+4). These convey the mid-frequency structure between the long-cycle envelope and the per-phase quartile. One large 4-year envelope bell (sky blue) sits at the back, spanning the full 1461-day cycle window. It conveys the long-horizon rhythm. Vertical markers anchor objective reference points : red solid lines at documented cycle bottoms (Jan 2015, Dec 2018, Nov 2022) and at the projected cycle 4 bottom (around Oct 2026); yellow dashed lines at documented cycle tops (Dec 2017, Nov 2021) and at the projected cycle 3 top (around Oct 2025, year-3 of the cycle). The "Maintenant" / "Now" vertical marker shows the latest data date.
What to observe
• "Now" marker position : the vertical dashed "Maintenant" / "Now" line sits at the latest data date. Read which phase bell it crosses to name the current phase directly. This is the primary actionable observation of the chart. • Alignment quality between BTC price line and bell envelopes : when the rising flank of a small phase bell aligns with the BTC price ascending, the framework's rhythm hypothesis is currently informative for that phase. Misalignment suggests cycle-specific dynamics dominate. • Cross-cycle visual symmetry : the same phase color repeats across all four cycles, allowing direct visual comparison of Bitcoin behaviour at the same phase across cycles. The 1-2-4 nesting visually emphasises the fractal repetition rhythm. • Opacity fade across cycles : the four cycles use a degressive opacity scale (cycle 1 full opacity, cycle 4 reduced) so the eye reads time direction left-to-right and the in-progress projected cycle 4 envelope stands out via its dashed stroke. • Cycle 4 projected versus documented cycles 1-3 : the cycle 4 envelope and phase bells use reduced opacity plus the cycle 4 large envelope is dashed. This is the visual signal that cycle 4 is an in-progress hypothesis, not a documented historical record. Track whether the BTC trajectory aligns with the cycle 4 bells or diverges — divergence suggests a structural regime change. • Phase boundaries between consecutive bells : when the BTC price moves from one phase bell to the next (e.g. crosses from yellow Markup into orange Distribution), this is a structural milestone for that cycle. Past cycle tops have historically clustered within the orange Distribution phase. • Long-horizon perspective only : the chart is a quarterly-or-longer framework. Day-to-day price movement is dominated by news flow, liquidity, and tactical positioning, none of which the framework captures.
Historical context
The four-year cyclical pattern hypothesis emerged organically from observation of three completed Bitcoin cycles. The first observed cycle (early 2012 to late 2014) lacked sufficient data depth for ex-ante framework articulation, which is why the chart starts data display in January 2015. The second cycle (January 2015 to late 2018) traced an approximate four-year arc with bottom in January 2015, top in December 2017, and bear bottom in December 2018. The third cycle (December 2018 to late 2022) repeated the pattern with bottom in December 2018, top in November 2021, and bear bottom in November 2022. João Wedson articulated the pattern as a publishable framework in 2021, observing that the rhythm became more consistent after 2015 — coincident with deeper market maturity and broader exchange-listed participation. The framework is observational, not theoretical : it neither claims a causal mechanism nor a deterministic forecast. The current cycle (cycle 3 in the chart numbering, post-November 2022 bottom) is in progress with the framework's projected top around October 2025 (year-3 of the cycle). Cycle 4 is anchored on a projected bottom around October 2026 and its envelope is rendered with reduced opacity plus a dashed stroke to clearly signal its in-progress status.
Expert notes
Geometry : each bell is generated by the inverse parabolic function 4·t·(1-t) over t ∈ [0,1], so the bell peak is exactly at t=0.5 (year-2 mid-window for the large 4-year envelope, year-1 mid-window for the 2-year medium bells, year mid-window for the 1-year small phase bells). The 1461-day bell width is calibrated to the median halving period in calendar days (~210,000 blocks at ~10 minutes per block, with empirical variability between 1410 and 1485 days across observed cycles). The 1-2-4 fractal nesting allocates innerH heights as 0.50 (large) / 0.35 (medium) / 0.22 (small) so all three levels remain visible without one suppressing the other. Cycle ordinals scale the layer opacities by a degressive factor (1.0 / 0.85 / 0.70 / 0.55) to mark time direction. The Apple iOS system colors (sky blue / purple / green / yellow / orange / red) are chosen for cross-theme contrast and instant phase identification. Phase boundaries within a cycle are equal-duration quartiles within the 1461-day window — an idealised partition; actual past cycle phase boundaries varied by 30-90 days from the perfect quartile split. The framework breaks down structurally when post-halving dynamics shift due to external regime changes; for cycle 3 in the chart numbering (post-2022 bottom), the January 2024 spot ETF approval represents the first major external regime change to test against.
Common mistakes to avoid
• Treating the bell envelopes as a price forecast : the bells are idealised geometric overlays, not predictive paths. The framework visualises a rhythm hypothesis; it does not predict tomorrow's price. • Reading exact dates from phase bell boundaries : the four small phase bells are equal-duration quartiles, an idealised partition. Actual past cycle phase boundaries varied by 30-90 days from this perfect split. • Over-interpreting the medium Short-Term-Cycle bells : the two purple bells per cycle are geometric halves of the 4-year window, not data-fit mini-cycles. Real intra-cycle consolidations have varied in count, duration, and amplitude across past cycles. • Applying the framework day-by-day : the chart is a long-horizon structural lens. Day-to-day price movement is dominated by news flow, liquidity, and tactical positioning, none of which the framework captures. • Assuming cycle 4 must replicate prior cycles : the post-2024-halving regime introduces institutional flow dynamics absent from cycles 1-3. The framework may need recalibration or may break down structurally in the in-progress cycle. • Confusing fractal observation with causation : even if Bitcoin tracks the bell envelopes for several cycles, this is empirical alignment, not a deterministic mechanism. Random walks can converge by chance, especially on short windows. • Confusing the "Maintenant" / "Now" marker with a forecast : the Now marker shows the latest data date only; it does not project beyond that point. Anything to the right of the Now marker is framework projection, not data.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-repetition-fractal/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-repetition-fractal",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.