Pi Cycle Highs & Lows

What is it?

The Pi Cycle Highs & Lows indicator combines two canonical Bitcoin cycle detection frameworks (Philip Swift) into a single chart. The top detection uses the 111-day simple moving average and 2× the 350-day simple moving average - when the shorter crosses above the longer, historically a cycle peak followed within 3 days (3 verified occurrences). The bottom detection uses the 150-day exponential moving average and the 471-day simple moving average multiplied by 0.745 (the "adjusted bottom MA") - when the EMA(150) crosses below the adjusted SMA(471)×0.745, the cycle bottom indication fires (3 verified bottoms). The chart plots all four moving averages over the Bitcoin spot price with red vertical bars at each top crossing and green vertical bars at each bottom crossing. The 350/111 ≈ π mathematical curiosity is widely documented in the on-chain literature. The chart is updated daily at publication T+0 (no editorial lag).

How to read

Five lines are plotted on a logarithmic price scale: the Bitcoin spot price (white reference), the 111-day SMA (red brique - top short), 2× the 350-day SMA (red bordeaux deep - top cross threshold), the 471-day SMA × 0.745 (green vif - adjusted bottom MA), and the 150-day EMA (cyan deep - bottom short). When the red brique line crosses above the red bordeaux line, a red vertical bar marks the top crossing date - historically aligned with cycle peak windows within 3 days. When the cyan line crosses below the green line, a green vertical bar marks the bottom crossing date - historically aligned with cycle bottom windows. Triangular markers anchor each crossing event dynamically (Top N for red tops, Bottom N for green bottoms). Read the chart structurally: the current relative position of the four moving averages immediately tells you whether the network is in an overheated regime, an accumulation regime, or a neutral mid-cycle phase.

Key zones

Top crossing (red vertical bar at the date when SMA(111) crosses above 2×SMA(350)): historically Bitcoin entered cycle peak windows within 3 days of the cross. The 3 verified occurrences: April 2013 (cycle 1 peak at $1,163, cross day = peak day), December 2017 (cycle 2 peak at $19,783, cross day = peak day), April 2021 (cycle 3 first peak at $63,518 → ATH $64,895 within 2 days). The November 2021 ultimate ATH ($69,000) was a double-top that the framework did not capture - a documented limitation. Bottom crossing (green vertical bar at the date when EMA(150) crosses below SMA(471)×0.745): historically Bitcoin entered deep accumulation regimes at these crossings. The 3 verified occurrences: January 2015 (cycle 1 bottom near $152), December 2018 (cycle 2 bottom near $3,122), November 2022 (cycle 3 bottom near $15,460). The 0.745 multiplier is the empirically calibrated adjustment factor from the original Philip Swift framework. Neutral mid-cycle: between top and bottom crossings. Historically the network spent the majority of inter-halving time in this neutral zone with the four moving averages stacked stably.

What to observe

• Top approach (gap narrowing): when the gap between SMA(111) and 2×SMA(350) narrows below 10% of spot price, the cross may be within 2-8 weeks. Below 5% gap warrants maximum vigilance. • Bottom approach (spread inversion): when the spread EMA(150)×0.745 - SMA(471) narrows toward 0, the bottom crossover may be approaching. The 471-day SMA is slow-moving, so the approach historically took months. • Post-cross behavior: after a top cross, SMA(111) typically remained above 2×SMA(350) briefly before falling back. After a bottom cross, the spread historically stayed negative for months. • Double-top limitation: in 2021, the top cross fired at the April 2021 peak (~$63K) but did not capture the November 2021 ATH (~$69K). Future double-top cycles may exhibit the same pattern. • Six historical markers: the three red triangles + three green triangles ground the historical pattern for visual reference.

Historical context

The Pi Cycle Top framework was established as a formal cycle indicator following the 2017 top confirmation of the pattern initially observed at the 2013 top. The 2021 cross provided a third data point with double-top complication. The bottom framework symmetric to the top was derived empirically from the 2015 and 2018 cycle bottoms and validated on the 2022 cycle bottom. The combined Highs & Lows visualization consolidates both frameworks into a single chart - Trinity v3.0 reconstructs this independently from public-domain formulas. The 350/111 ≈ π mathematical curiosity has generated debate about whether the relationship is coincidental or reflects deeper market structure; the empirical 6/6 historical record speaks for itself regardless of the theoretical debate.

Expert notes

The 111-day, 350-day, and 471-day moving averages are SIMPLE moving averages (SMA) of daily closing price. The 150-day uses an EXPONENTIAL moving average (EMA) with span=150 + adjust=False. The 0.745 multiplier on the SMA(471) is an empirically calibrated adjustment factor from the original Philip Swift framework ("adjusted bottom MA"). The cross detection threshold is exact arithmetic: top cross when SMA(111)[t] > 2×SMA(350)[t] AND SMA(111)[t-1] ≤ 2×SMA(350)[t-1] ; bottom cross when EMA(150)[t] < SMA(471)[t]×0.745 AND EMA(150)[t-1] ≥ SMA(471)[t-1]×0.745. Trinity adds 30-day sustained + 365-day cooldown anti-noise filters on top of the canonical detection. Post-ETF caveat: spot ETF flows since January 2024 have compressed cycle volatility; the framework may fire at lower multiples than historical (e.g., the 2×SMA(350) and SMA(471)×0.745 ratios may need re-calibration in future cycles).

Common mistakes to avoid

• Treating the cross as an immediate price drop: the cross indicates a cycle peak window, but the decline has historically been gradual over weeks to months - not an instant crash. • Using the top framework as a bottom indicator: the top framework was designed and validated as a TOP indicator only. It provides no information about cycle bottoms - that is what the bottom framework does. • Assuming 100% precision: with only 3 top + 3 bottom verified occurrences, the empirical record is small. Future cycles may exhibit different patterns, especially post-ETF. • Ignoring the double-top limitation: the 2021 cross identified the April peak but did not capture the November ATH. Future double-top cycles may exhibit the same pattern. • Reacting in panic on the cross: even when the cross has correctly identified the regime change, the price decline has been gradual. The chart provides a window for risk management, not a reason for panic.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-pi-cycle-highs-and-lows/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "cycle-pi-cycle-highs-and-lows",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

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Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.