Trinity Cycle CompositeTRINITY EXCLUSIVE

Trinity exclusive model

This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.

What is it?

The Trinity Cycle Composite is a proprietary score on a 0-to-100 scale that synthesizes multiple Bitcoin cycle frameworks into a single readable number. Rather than requiring readers to cross-reference several individual cycle indicators (valuation oscillators, on-chain metrics, supply distribution metrics, momentum gauges), the composite aggregates them via a Trinity proprietary methodology - walk-forward optimized weights calibrated on past complete cycles. The output is a smoothed score updated daily at publication T+0 with no editorial lag. Zone boundaries (cold under 25, warm 75-90, euphoria above 90) ground the reading in historically observed regimes. ⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - the precise weighting recipe is proprietary and not disclosed publicly to preserve methodological value. The conceptual framework, the sub-indicator family composition, the score range, and the historical regime context are fully transparent.

How to read

The chart displays the historical evolution of the composite score on a 0-to-100 vertical axis. Three colored zones overlay the chart: a forest green zone from 0 to 25 marking the historically deep accumulation regime, a terracotta zone from 75 to 90 marking the historically advanced bull phase regime, and a burgundy zone from 90 to 100 marking the historically euphoria extreme regime. The right vertical axis shows BTC spot price for cycle context as an always-on overlay. Three historical markers anchor past extreme readings: red triangles for past cycle peak readings above 85, green triangles for past cycle trough readings below 25. Read the chart structurally: the current line position relative to the colored zones immediately tells you which cycle regime the network is in.

Key zones

Deep accumulation zone (forest green fill, 0-25): historically Bitcoin entered deep accumulation regimes when the composite dropped below 25. Three documented historical examples: January 2015 (cycle 1 trough), December 2018 (cycle 2 trough), November 2022 (cycle 3 trough). Deep accumulation regimes typically lasted multiple months and were followed by long-duration bull market phases. Warm zone (terracotta fill, 75-90): historically Bitcoin transitioned into advanced bull phase when the composite climbed above 75. The zone reflects elevated valuation and momentum across multiple frameworks simultaneously - not a single indicator's reading. Euphoria zone (burgundy fill, 90-100): historically Bitcoin entered euphoria territory when the composite climbed above 90. Three documented historical examples: December 2013 (cycle 1 peak), December 2017 (cycle 2 peak), April 2021 (cycle 3 first peak - compressed amplitude). Time spent in euphoria zone has been brief in past cycles (weeks, not months). Neutral zone (no fill, 25-75): the bulk of inter-cycle time. Historically the network spent the majority of inter-halving time in this neutral zone with the composite oscillating mildly.

What to observe

• Approach to 75 threshold: when the composite climbs from neutral toward 75, the network is exiting statistical neutrality and entering the historically warm regime. Past instances marked the transition into advanced bull market phases. • Approach to 90 threshold: when the composite climbs toward 90, structural cycle context applies - past instances preceded cycle peaks within weeks to a couple of months. • Approach to 25 threshold: when the composite drops toward 25 from above, the network is entering deep accumulation territory - past instances coincided with cycle bottoms within weeks to months. • Cycle amplitude compression: in past cycles, peak composite readings have ranged from approximately 85 (cycle 3) to approximately 95 (cycles 1-2). Future cycles in the post-ETF regime may exhibit further amplitude compression - peaks may register at lower composite values than historical. • Time spent in extreme zones: in past cycles, time spent above 90 (euphoria) has been brief (weeks). Time spent below 25 (deep accumulation) has been longer (months). Asymmetric duration is structural to the framework.

Historical context

The approach of synthesizing multiple cycle indicators into a single composite score has been used by analysts in the on-chain literature since the late 2010s as a way to reduce single-indicator noise and capture structural regime context. Trinity's implementation reconstructs the conceptual framework independently with proprietary methodology validated on documented historical cycles. The historical composite trajectory on past cycles shows: cycle 1 (2011-2014) peak around 95 in December 2013 and trough around 10 in January 2015, cycle 2 (2015-2018) peak around 95 in December 2017 and trough around 15 in December 2018, cycle 3 (2019-2022) peak around 85 in April 2021 and trough around 20 in November 2022. The progressive compression of peak amplitude across cycles is documented and may continue in the post-ETF regime that began in January 2024.

Expert notes

⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - the composite is constructed via a proprietary methodology that aggregates multiple individually public-domain cycle frameworks. The methodology family includes valuation oscillators, on-chain supply distribution metrics, momentum gauges, and risk metrics - each individually documented in the Trinity catalog with its own education entry, but their exact aggregation weights are not publicly disclosed. The weights are walk-forward optimized - they were learned on cycles 1-2 and tested out-of-sample on cycle 3 (and continue to be monitored on cycle 4). The output is calibrated such that historical extremes consistently land in the colored zones across cycles. Caveat: the composite is a synthesis of past patterns, not a forecast - past readings do not guarantee future behavior. Re-calibration of the weights may occur in major Trinity version updates as more out-of-sample data accumulates.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Treating the composite as a price prediction: the score is a synthesis of past patterns, not a forecast. Past extreme readings do not guarantee future market behavior. • Assuming symmetric zone behavior: historically the network spent weeks in the euphoria zone (90-100) and months in the deep accumulation zone (0-25). Time symmetry should not be assumed. • Expecting precise calibration across all cycles: amplitude compression is documented - cycle 3 peak (around 85) was lower than cycles 1-2 (around 95). Future cycles in the post-ETF regime may continue this compression. • Using on a single short timeframe: the chart is designed for the all timeframe (3+ cycles visible). Reading on 1y loses the cross-cycle comparability that makes the composite valuable. • Trying to reverse-engineer weights from the displayed score: the composite is a proprietary aggregation. Individual sub-indicator contributions are not exposed in the chart. Attempting to back-out weights from a single time series is not productive - the value of the composite lies in the synthesis itself, not in the components.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-trinity-multi-model-composite/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "cycle-trinity-multi-model-composite",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

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• cycle-pi-cycle-highs-and-lows
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• cycle-confluence-index-9-metrics

Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.