Bull Cycles Comparison Multi-View
Superimposes the most recent 3 Bitcoin bull markets (cycle 2 ~2015-17, cycle 3 ~2018-21, cycle 4 ~2022-current) aligned on a common X axis representing days since cycle bottom. A tabs UI enables switching between 3 complementary views: Multiplier ROI (default, log Y axis, diminishing returns visual), Returns % (percentage gain), Drawdown from ATH (correction depth from rolling peak). Background phase zones mark typical bull cycle progression: post-capitulation rally (0-150d green), consolidation (150-450d neutral), main bull leg (450-800d Trinity Gold), blow-off zone (>800d red). Diminishing returns confirmed 4/4 cycles in the broader framework.
What is it?
The Bull Cycles Comparison Multi-View indicator superimposes the most recent 3 Bitcoin bull markets (Cycle 2: 2015-17, Cycle 3: 2018-21, Cycle 4: 2022 onwards) aligned on a common X axis representing days since cycle bottom (0 to ATH). A user-selectable tabs UI above the chart enables switching between 3 complementary views: Multiplier ROI (default, logarithmic Y axis, multiplier × cycle bottom for visualizing diminishing returns), Returns % (linear Y axis, percentage gain since cycle bottom), Drawdown from ATH (linear negative Y axis, correction depth from rolling local peak). The current cycle 4 trajectory is rendered in orange at 3px thickness, highlighted, while cycles 2/3 are rendered in violet/green at progressively higher opacities. Colored zones explicitly mark the typical bull cycle phases: post-capitulation rally (0-150 days, forest green), consolidation (150-450 days, no fill), main bull leg (450-800 days, Trinity Gold), blow-off zone (>800 days, red burgundy). Publication lag is daily T+0.
How to read
Open the tabs UI above the chart to choose your perspective: Returns % shows percentage gains since the cycle bottom - read direct comparison of magnitude across cycles; Multiplier shows the ROI multiplier on a logarithmic Y axis - read diminishing returns trend across cycles; Drawdown from ATH shows the depth of corrections from each cycle's rolling peak - read bull market resilience and correction tolerance. The X axis is consistent across all 3 views: days since cycle bottom (0 to 1000+ days, default 4y timeframe = ~1460 days post-bottom). The Cycle 4 (current) trajectory in orange 3px is the focal point; compare its position at any X coordinate against the Cycle 3 trajectory in green at the same coordinate to assess relative performance. Background colored zones mark typical bull cycle phases. Hover tooltip provides exact ratios across all cycles at the same coordinate.
Key zones
Post-capitulation rally zone (0-150 days, forest green fill): the initial recovery phase from cycle bottom. Historically Bitcoin gained 50-200% during this phase across all cycles, with sharp recoveries driven by capitulation reversal. The visualization shades this zone in forest green to convey early phase typical rally. Consolidation zone (150-450 days, no fill): the lateral crab phase between the initial rally and the main bull leg. Historically the most uncertain phase. No background overlay color, raw trajectory comparison only. Main bull leg zone (450-800 days, Trinity Gold fill): the structural acceleration phase where Bitcoin historically posted its strongest gains. Cycle 1 main leg occurred ~2012-Q3 to 2013-Q4; cycle 2 main leg ~2016-Q4 to 2017-Q4; cycle 3 main leg ~2020-Q4 to 2021-Q2 (compressed by COVID liquidity injection accelerating the timeline). The visualization shades this zone in Trinity Gold to convey structural acceleration phase. Blow-off zone (>800 days, red burgundy fill): the late-cycle euphoria phase preceding the cycle top. Historically a high-risk phase as the cycle top approaches. Cycle 2 ATH at day ~1080, cycle 3 ATH at day ~880 (first top April 2021) or day ~1080 (ultimate ATH November 2021). The visualization shades this zone in red burgundy to convey blow-off risk window.
What to observe
• Cycle 4 position vs Cycle 3 at same X coordinate: the primary comparison. When cycle 4 sits above cycle 3 in Returns % view at the same days-since-bottom, cycle 4 is outperforming the most recent analog. Below = underperforming. • Diminishing returns confirmation in Multiplier view: the log-Y Multiplier view stacks the cycles visually - cycle 2 ~130×, cycle 3 ~22× far lower. Watch where cycle 4 multiplier converges relative to this stack. • Drawdown resilience in Drawdown view: the Drawdown view shows correction depth from rolling ATH. Healthy bull markets exhibit drawdowns within -25% to -35%; deeper drawdowns suggest weakening structure. • Phase transition timing: track when cycle 4 exits each background zone. Premature transitions warn of cycle acceleration; delayed transitions warn of cycle compression. • ATH marker alignment: the cycle ATHs (Dec 2017 violet, April + November 2021 green) cluster around day 750-1080 post-bottom. Cycle 4 ATH timing relative to this range will inform cycle structure. • Post-ETF dynamic: monitor whether cycle 4 systematically diverges from cycle 3 trajectory due to spot ETF flow effects since January 2024.
Historical context
Multi-cycle bull market comparison has been a standard technique in commodity and equity market cyclical analysis for decades, adapted to Bitcoin since the halving cycle pattern became apparent. The Cycle 1 (2011-13) bull market began at approximately $2 in November 2011 and peaked at $1,163 in December 2013 (+57,950% return, 580× multiplier) - the largest cycle in absolute percentage terms (excluded from default visualization due to pre-derivatives era differences). The Cycle 2 (2015-17) bull began at $152 in January 2015 and peaked at $19,783 in December 2017 (+12,915% return, 130× multiplier). The Cycle 3 (2018-21) bull began at $3,122 in December 2018 and peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 (+2,110% return, 22× multiplier) - exhibiting the unique double-top pattern (first top April 2021 $63,518). Cycle 4 (2022 onwards) opened at its November 2022 cycle bottom anchor - the post-bottom phase trajectory is plotted within this framework. The diminishing returns pattern is structurally explained by Bitcoin's growing market capitalization - each subsequent cycle requires absolutely more capital inflow to produce the same percentage gain.
Expert notes
The 3 views (Returns / Multiplier / Drawdown) are computed independently on the frontend from the raw cycle trajectories backend-emitted (no view parameter persisted backend). Switch between tabs is handled by the frontend renderer with no API recall. The Y axis adapts per view: Returns % uses linear scale 0 to +5000%; Multiplier uses logarithmic scale 1× to 200×; Drawdown uses linear negative scale 0% to -90%. The cycle bottoms auto-detection uses rolling 730-day minima. The 4 background colored zones (post-capitulation rally / consolidation / main bull leg / blow-off) are empirically calibrated on cycles 2-3; cycle 4 may exhibit different timing if post-ETF dynamics structurally shift the cycle profile. With only 3 cycles available for backtest in the default visualization (cycle 1 excluded), treat the framework as directional.
Common mistakes to avoid
• Treating Returns view as predictive: the visualization shows historical alignment, not a forecast. Cycle 4 can diverge from Cycle 3 trajectory at any X coordinate. • Reading Multiplier view as this cycle should reach 22×: the diminishing returns trend suggests cycle 4 multiplier will be lower than cycle 3's 22×, not equal. Use the Returns view for absolute comparison, the Multiplier view for trend confirmation. • Ignoring Cycle 3 double-top in interpretation: the cycle 3 trajectory includes both the April 2021 first top and the November 2021 ultimate top. Future cycles may exhibit single-top or multi-top patterns. • Overinterpreting Cycle 2 (2015-17): cycle 2 occurred in a structurally different market (negligible institutional involvement, limited derivatives). Its analog value is mostly educational, not predictive. • Confusing the colored phase zones as rigid time bands: the 0-150j / 150-450j / 450-800j / >800j ranges are empirically averaged across cycles 2-3; actual phase durations varied. Treat the zones as visual reference, not strict timing rules. • Confusing Drawdown view as cycle should drawdown -30% max: healthy bull market drawdowns historically reached -50% in cycle 3 (May 2021 crash). Use this view for resilience comparison, not for risk thresholds.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/cycle-intelligence/cycle-bull-cycles-comparison-multi-view/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "cycle-bull-cycles-comparison-multi-view",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.