STH-MVRV Bollinger Bands
STH-MVRV with Bollinger bands: the ratio is compared with its own 20-day moving average and with the ±2σ envelope around it. A position above the upper band or below the lower band describes how far the ratio sits from its recent average, not a buy or sell instruction.
What is it?
The chart frames STH-MVRV with its 20-day moving average plus or minus two standard deviations calculated over that window. Three lines are rendered: raw ratio, upper band and lower band. The central average is computed but not plotted separately. The envelope describes recent ratio dispersion.
How to read
Compare the ratio with both bands. Above the upper band, it exceeds its recent average by more than two standard deviations; below the lower band, it is lower by more than two standard deviations. This provides neither a return probability nor a guaranteed breakout frequency.
Key zones
Band width describes recent dispersion. Narrowing corresponds to lower dispersion; widening to higher dispersion. A touch or breakout describes a position within this envelope without predicting the next direction.
What to observe
Observe width changes, repeated touches and time spent outside the bands. The ratio can remain near a band in a trending regime. Separately compare the STH-MVRV level with 1 to read the cohort's unrealized profit or loss.
Historical context
Bollinger bands are a public statistical envelope applied here to STH-MVRV. The 20-day window describes recent history, not a forecast horizon. Breakout frequency must be measured from observations and does not mechanically follow from the two-standard-deviation parameter.
Expert notes
The backend recomputes the ratio from STH supply, price and STH realized capitalization, then applies a rolling 20-day mean and standard deviation. Bands evolve with observations. They do not assume returns or the ratio follow a normal distribution.
Common mistakes to avoid
Two standard deviations do not guarantee a coverage frequency for this series. A breakout does not require a return to the mean in the following days. Bands are neither guaranteed support or resistance nor buying or selling instructions.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/sth-mvrv-bollinger/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "sth-mvrv-bollinger",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.