MVRV Short-Term Holders
MVRV for coins held <155 days. Values above 1.0 mean STH are in aggregate profit; sharp drops below 1.0 indicate local capitulation.
What is it?
STH-MVRV (Short-Term Holder) applies the MVRV calculation exclusively to coins held for less than 155 days. It compares spot price to this cohort's Realized Price. This ratio captures the 'temperature' of recent market participants - those statistically most price-sensitive and most likely to sell under pressure. When STH-MVRV is high, recent buyers are comfortably profitable; when low or negative, they face unrealised losses.
How to read
STH-MVRV > 1: short-term holders are in profit. STH-MVRV < 1: they are in loss. Level 1 acts as an important psychological pivot. In a bull market, retests of STH-MVRV = 1 (where recent buyers return to break-even) have historically served as support. In a bear market, STH-MVRV = 1 became resistance (recent buyers sell to 'get out at zero').
Key zones
STH-MVRV > 1.4: short-term euphoria, historically associated with local peaks. STH-MVRV 1.0-1.2: healthy equilibrium zone in bull markets. STH-MVRV < 0.8: short-term distress, recent buyers facing 20%+ losses. STH-MVRV < 0.6: panic, observed only during major crashes (March 2020, May 2021, November 2022).
What to observe
STH-MVRV behaviour around level 1 is the most studied indicator. In a bull market, each touch of 1 followed by a bounce confirms the trend. In a bear market, each touch of 1 followed by rejection confirms weakness. The transition between regimes (support → resistance or vice versa) is historically one of the most observed trend change indicators in on-chain analysis.
Historical context
Retrospectively, STH-MVRV coincided with the June 2021 local bottom (STH-MVRV < 0.75), the September 2021 recovery attempt (successful 1.0 retest), and the 2022 debacle (1.0 switching from support to resistance in January 2022). In the current cycle, ETFs have potentially altered dynamics by adding institutional STH buyers whose behaviour differs from historical retail STH.
Expert notes
STH-MVRV is mathematically equivalent to spot price divided by STH Realized Price. It can be decomposed into two components: (1) 'momentum' - the distance between price and STH realized price, and (2) 'velocity' - the rate of change of STH realized price itself. Divergences between these two components offer advanced insights into the quality of current momentum.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high STH-MVRV does not mean recent buyers WILL sell - only that they are in a position to do so profitably. Actual selling behaviour depends on many factors (sentiment, news, liquidity). Similarly, STH-MVRV < 1 does not necessarily imply capitulation - recent holders may choose to 'average down' rather than sell at a loss.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/mvrv-sth/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mvrv-sth",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.