STH-MVRV Z-Score (2Y rolling)
Z-score of STH-MVRV with a 2-year rolling window - statistical overheat or undervaluation reading for the Short-Term Holder cohort (<155 days). Distinct from mvrv-z-score (expanding global).
What is it?
STH-MVRV Z-Score statistically normalizes the STH-MVRV position relative to its 2-year rolling mean and standard deviation. A +1 Z-score means 1 standard deviation above the 2-year historical mean; +2, two deviations (statistical overheat, ~5% of historical observations); -2, extreme undervaluation (~5% low). The raw STH-MVRV ratio measures the weighted average valuation of short-term holders' cost basis; this z-score normalizes that measure.
How to read
Vertical axis centered on zero (2-year rolling mean), typical bounds ±3σ. Threshold lines at ±1σ and ±2σ delimit statistically significant zones. Beyond +2σ: statistical overheat (red zone); below -2σ: statistical undervaluation (green zone). Reading: oscillation around zero = STH cohort equilibrium; prolonged stay >+2σ = persistent short-term euphoria.
Key zones
Five statistical zones. (A) >+2σ: extreme short-term overheat, ~5% of historical time, high tactical risk indication. (B) +1σ to +2σ: STH cohort tension above norm, caution. (C) -1σ to +1σ: STH cohort equilibrium, normal conditions. (D) -1σ to -2σ: STH cohort stress below norm, potential tactical opportunity. (E) <-2σ: extreme short-term undervaluation, tactical accumulation indication.
What to observe
Watch ±2σ envelope exits (rare events ~5%) which often mark short-term turning points for the STH cohort. Also watch duration spent in each zone: persistence >2σ over several weeks = atypical speculative euphoria phase. Cross with LTH-MVRV Z-Score = crossed cohort view: if STH overheating but LTH neutral, risk is tactical not structural.
Historical context
Rolling 2-year Z-score allows adapting the reading to recent statistical regularity, unlike expanding mvrv-z-score which uses all history since 2011 (and thus gives different bounds). For the STH cohort, the 2-year window typically captures 1.5 to 2 alternating bull-bear-bull cycles, calibrating overheat thresholds to recent market statistical reality rather than a 10+ year historical norm.
Expert notes
Distinct from mvrv-z-score (which uses expanding window on global MVRV since 2011): here rolling 2-year window specifically on the STH cohort (<155 days). The STH cohort is more volatile than the global average, so its z-score indications tactical overheat more frequently. Standard 155 days for the STH/LTH boundary from on-chain industry convention.
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not confuse with mvrv-z-score: here we look at the STH cohort only, and with a rolling not expanding window. Also do not confuse with mvrv-sth (raw STH-MVRV ratio): this z-score normalizes the ratio, it measures a statistical deviation not an absolute valuation level. A 0 z-score does NOT mean neutral valuation; it means alignment with the 2-year mean (which may be low or high in absolute terms).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/sth-mvrv-zscore/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "sth-mvrv-zscore",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.