MVRV Classic
Market Value to Realized Value ratio. Above 3.7 has historically coincided with cycle tops; below 1.0 with generational bottoms.
What is it?
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is the ratio between Bitcoin's market capitalisation (spot price × circulating supply) and the Realized Cap (sum of each UTXO valued at the price of its last movement). When MVRV > 1, the average holder is in unrealised profit. When MVRV < 1, the average holder is in unrealised loss. It is one of the oldest and most followed on-chain indicators, created by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell in 2018. It provides a measure of the market's speculative 'temperature' relative to its aggregate acquisition cost.
How to read
MVRV is displayed as a line oscillating around the value 1. Above 1, the market as a whole is in unrealised profit - the higher the value, the greater the latent profit. Below 1, the market is in aggregate loss. Historically, extremely high values (> 3.5) have coincided with cycle tops, and values below 1 have marked capitulation zones.
Key zones
MVRV > 3.5: extreme overheating zone, observed only at the 2013, 2017 tops and briefly in 2021. MVRV 2-3.5: high profit, historically increasing risk. MVRV 1-2: normal mid-cycle conditions. MVRV < 1: market in aggregate loss, observed in 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022. These thresholds have shown a trend toward compression across cycles (diminishing peaks).
What to observe
MVRV dynamics are more informative than its absolute level. A rapidly rising MVRV indicates accelerating latent profit gain - potentially unsustainable. A stagnating MVRV despite rising price means Realized Cap is rising as fast (active distribution absorbing the rise). Retests of MVRV = 1 after a period above are critical moments: either support holds (bull market intact) or it gives way (bear market confirmed).
Historical context
MVRV reached 5.8 in December 2017, 3.9 in April 2021, and 3.4 in November 2021. Sub-1 troughs were observed in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. The progressive diminishing of peaks reflects market maturation and institutional capital entry with higher cost bases. The 2024-2025 cycle with ETFs may further modify this dynamic by anchoring Realized Cap at structurally higher levels.
Expert notes
MVRV treats all BTC equally by weighting by value. For more granular analysis, the STH-MVRV and LTH-MVRV variants isolate each cohort's profits/losses. The MVRV Z-Score further normalises by accounting for historical volatility. The MVRV Explorer (Trinity interactive tool) offers 112 variants with customisable age cohort filters.
Common mistakes to avoid
MVRV does NOT measure actual realised profit - it measures LATENT profit. Holders have not sold at these levels. Additionally, the cost basis used (last movement price) can be reset by internal transfers that are not sales. An MVRV > 3 does not 'mean' an imminent top - it indicates conditions historically associated with elevated risk, which is a fundamental nuance.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/mvrv-classic/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mvrv-classic",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.