LTH-MVRV Z-Score (2Y rolling)
Z-score of LTH-MVRV with a 2-year rolling window - statistical stress reading for the Long-Term Holder cohort (>155 days). Sister to sth-mvrv-zscore for the conviction segment.
What is it?
LTH-MVRV Z-Score statistically normalizes the LTH-MVRV position relative to its 2-year rolling mean and standard deviation. Sister to STH-MVRV Z-Score for the conviction cohort (>155 days). Raw LTH-MVRV represents the average valuation of long-term holders - historically more stable than the STH cohort because mature coins move less.
How to read
Same visual grammar as STH-MVRV Z-Score (axis centered on zero, threshold ±1σ ±2σ), but with naturally lower volatility because the LTH cohort is less active. Crossings beyond ±2σ are rarer but qualitatively stronger: an LTH overheat (>+2σ) indicates even the most convinced holders are in speculative territory (typical late-bull); an LTH undervaluation (<-2σ) indicates deep conviction is being challenged (typical late-bear severe).
Key zones
Five zones identical to STH-MVRV Z-Score but to interpret with different structural weight. An LTH overheat >+2σ is exceptional (naturally stable cohort) and typically indicate a structural cycle top (not just short-term tactical tension). An LTH undervaluation <-2σ is a strong structural trough indication (conviction capitulation). These indications are rare but carry high predictive weight.
What to observe
Specifically watch ±2σ crossings which are rare but qualitatively important. Compare with STH-MVRV Z-Score for crossed cohort view: convergence (STH and LTH simultaneously overheating or undervalued) = structural cycl'indication; divergence (STH overheating but LTH neutral) = purely tactical tension without structural weight. Time spent outside ±2σ is also indicative of regime extreme.
Historical context
Historical LTH overheats >+2σ have coincided with absolute cycle tops (alignment with Bitcoin halvings). LTH undervaluations <-2σ have coincided with absolute cycle troughs (deep conviction capitulation, typical late-bear severe). With LTH cohort being more inertial than STH, its statistical indications are first-order cyclical markers, few but high conviction.
Expert notes
Sister to sth-mvrv-zscore but with different semantics: the LTH cohort is more inertial, so this z-score changes more slowly and emits fewer indications. When it indications, weight is structural not tactical. Distinct from mvrv-z-score (expanding global) which uses an infinite window. Distinct from mvrv-lth (raw ratio) which measures absolute level. Recommended combination: sth-mvrv-zscore + lth-mvrv-zscore for complete cohort view.
Common mistakes to avoid
Do not over-interpret small LTH-MVRV Z-Score movements: with LTH cohort inertial, variations are normally small. An important nuance: an LTH z-score near zero does not mean absolute equilibrium, just alignment with the 2-year mean. And do not confuse with mvrv-z-score (expanding global) nor with mvrv-lth (raw ratio): three different metrics with distinct semantics.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/lth-mvrv-zscore/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "lth-mvrv-zscore",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.