Pain Index STH
Pain Index restricted to Short-Term Holders (less than six months of holding). Captures short-horizon capitulation — fast hands giving up first during corrections.
What is it?
Pain Index STH applies the same composite formula as the global Pain Index (#358) but filtering only UTXOs held for less than six months. The STH (Short-Term Holders) cohort groups recent buyers — typically investors who entered in bull market, by nature more sensitive to short-term corrections. The six-month threshold is an established on-chain convention derived from UTXO survival analysis (holding curve inflection point).
How to read
Read the current value in parallel with the global Pain Index. Pain Index STH is mechanically more volatile — Short-Term Holders are more sensitive to price movements because their cost basis is more recent. Divergence (STH high, global moderate) translates a correction mostly affecting recent buyers while historical holders remain comfortably in profit. Convergence (STH and global high simultaneously) translates systemic capitulation affecting all cohorts.
Key zones
Zone 0-30: STH mostly in profit, phase favourable to recent entries — typical of expansion phases. Zone 30-70: STH in neutral zone, some winners some losers — transition phases. Zone 70-100: STH capitulation, recent buyers are massively in loss — typical of cycle tops followed by deep correction, or bear market phases.
What to observe
The relative amplitude of Pain Index STH versus global Pain Index is an indicator of supply transfer between cohorts. If STH spikes strongly while global stays moderate, strong hands (LTH or methodical new entrants) absorb panicking STH supply. Conversely, if STH and global rise simultaneously, the market is in generalised stress. The speed of return to neutral zone after a spike is an indicator of cohort stabilisation.
Historical context
Pain Index STH peaks coincided with rapid post-cycle-top corrections, where recent buyers massively flipped into loss. At the 2018 trough and the 2022 trough, Pain Index STH hit extreme levels several quarters before global Pain Index fully capitulated, illustrating the typical sequence: STH capitulate first, then supply migration toward LTH, then progressive stabilisation.
Expert notes
The 6-month threshold used for the STH cohort slightly differs from the historical 155-day convention used by some platforms. Both conventions identify substantially the same population of recent buyers — the statistical difference is marginal. The metric stays faithful to the cohort definition and allows direct comparison with MVRV STH (#mvrv-sth) and SOPR STH (#sopr-sth) in the Trinity catalogue.
Common mistakes to avoid
Confusing Pain Index STH with a general retail fear proxy is an approximation. Pain Index STH specifically measures unrealised loss among short-term holders — it completely ignores experienced hands and long-term dormant wallets. Reading this metric without cross-referencing Pain Index LTH leads to partial decisions: a panicking STH while a calm LTH characterises a normal correction, not a systemic crisis.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/pain-index-sth/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "pain-index-sth",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.