Pain Index
Composite share of supply held in unrealised loss, weighted by drawdown magnitude. High readings characterise capitulation phases and bear-market troughs; low readings characterise euphoric profit regimes.
What is it?
Pain Index is a composite metric normalised on the [0, 100] interval combining two dimensions: the share of supply held in loss (% supply in loss) and the average magnitude of that loss (USD-weighted average drawdown). A high value means a large proportion of circulating BTC is in loss AND the average loss is heavy. A low value means supply is mostly in profit AND/OR existing losses are marginal. The exact formula combines the supply-in-loss ratio by the average drawdown magnitude, weighted by on-chain convention established since 2019.
How to read
Read the current value relative to empirical zones. Below 30, the market is in comfortable profit regime - typical of cycle expansion phases. Between 30 and 70, the market is in neutral zone - transition phases between bull and bear or extended plateau. Above 70, the market is in severe stress zone - typical of bear market troughs and major capitulations. Transition speed between zones is as informative as absolute levels: a rapid move from 30 to 70 over a few weeks translates an acute crisis.
Key zones
Zone 0-30: comfort regime, supply mostly in profit, no capitulation pressure. Zone 30-70: neutral regime, transition or plateau, mixed reading without strong direction. Zone 70-100: panic regime, latent capitulation, supply mostly in loss with severe drawdown. Historical peaks above 80 coincided with deep bear market troughs - typically short-lived because capitulation is by nature a transient event.
What to observe
Watch transition speed between zones. A brutal acceleration of Pain Index (for example from 40 to 75 over a few weeks) translates an ongoing capitulation event. Conversely, smooth deceleration (Pain Index topping then slowly declining) translates a stabilising bear market trough. Divergence with BTC price is also to watch: a Pain Index declining while price keeps falling may translate absorption of loss-bearing supply by strong hands.
Historical context
Historical peaks of Pain Index coincided with major capitulation phases: Spring 2020 (COVID crash), Autumn 2022 (FTX crisis), Summer 2015 (post-2013 bear market trough), late 2018 (post-2017 bear market trough). Each of these peaks preceded or coincided with a structural cycle bottom. Mirror symmetry with Greed Index (#361) allows joint visualisation of opposing psychological regimes.
Expert notes
Pain Index weights loss by drawdown magnitude - it therefore differs from simple '% supply in loss' metrics (which ignore magnitude). A supply at 60% in loss with 5% average drawdown gives a moderate Pain Index, while a supply at 60% in loss with 40% average drawdown gives a very high Pain Index. The exact weighting is defined by established on-chain community convention; it is reproducible via inspection of the open-source community on-chain pipeline code.
Common mistakes to avoid
Confusing Pain Index with a simple retail sentiment metric (fear / panic expressed on social media) is a mistake. Pain Index is derived exclusively from on-chain data - it does not depend on social sentiment, media or polls. Also confusing high Pain Index with immediate buy opportunity: a very high Pain Index can persist for weeks before reversal, and some troughs saw multiple successive peaks. Always cross-reference with other cycle indicators for timing.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/pain-index/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "pain-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.