Greed Index (On-Chain)
Composite share of supply held in unrealised profit, weighted by gain magnitude. High readings characterise euphoric phases near cycle tops; low readings characterise capitulation troughs. Distinct from the multi-source Fear & Greed composite - fully on-chain.
What is it?
Greed Index is the mirror metric of Pain Index (#358). It combines two dimensions: the share of supply held in profit (% supply in profit) and the average magnitude of that profit (USD-weighted average gain). A high value means a large proportion of circulating BTC is in profit AND average profit is high. A low value means supply is mostly in loss AND/OR existing profits are marginal. The formula is fully derived from on-chain data - without any social, media or poll input.
How to read
Read the current value relative to empirical zones. Below 20, the market is in despair - almost all supply in loss or marginally in profit, typical of bear market troughs. Between 20 and 80, the market is in extended neutral zone - most of market time. Above 80, the market is in euphoria - supply massively in profit with substantial gains, typical of cycle tops. Symmetry with Pain Index allows joint reading (high Pain ↔ low Greed, and vice versa).
Key zones
Zone 0-20: despair, supply in massive loss, historical accumulation window. Zone 20-80: extended neutral regime, transition or building bull. Zone 80-100: euphoria, supply massively in gain - cycle top proximity. Peaks above 90 have historically coincided with euphoric cycle tops (December 2017, November 2021).
What to observe
Watch the time spent in the euphoria zone (>80). A brief visit (a few weeks) can be followed by retracement, but extended persistence (several months) above 80 has historically been the marker of a structural cycle top. Divergence with BTC price is also to watch: a Greed Index plateauing or declining while price keeps rising characterises latent distribution - supply migrating from profit-taking hands to top-buying hands.
Historical context
Historical Greed Index peaks coincided with euphoric cycle tops: Spring 2013, late 2013 (first major peak), December 2017, November 2021. Each of these peaks preceded a correction of several months or years. Greed Index troughs coincided with bear market troughs: Summer 2015, late 2018, March 2020, late 2022. Symmetry with Pain Index allows visual identification of dominant cycle phases.
Expert notes
**Cycle-relative normalisation**: the metric applies min-max scaling over a 5-year rolling window (1825 days). A reading of 0 means the current value touches the minimum observed over the last 5 years (despair relative to the 5y cycle), a reading of 100 means the maximum observed (euphoria relative). This approach guarantees access to the [0-20] despair and [80-100] euphoria zones even when the upstream raw series is structurally positive. Implication: a value of 50 is NOT 'absolute neutral' but 'middle of the observed range over 5 years'. Greed Index is complementary to Pain Index - their values are not mechanically complementary (Greed + Pain does not equal 100) because magnitude-weighted gains and losses do not follow a linear relation.
Common mistakes to avoid
Confusing the Trinity on-chain Greed Index with the Fear & Greed Index composite (alternative.me / CoinMarketCap) is the most frequent mistake. The composite Fear & Greed Index combines five heterogeneous components: volatility, momentum, social media, dominance and Google search trends. The Trinity on-chain Greed Index is exclusively derived from the % supply in profit weighted by magnitude - without external input, without arbitrary weighting, reproducible by blockchain data inspection. Both metrics can diverge significantly (for example, a bullish social sentiment while on-chain supply is still mostly neutral) - it is precisely this divergence that makes their comparison informative.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/greed-index/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "greed-index",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.