Pain Index LTH
Pain Index restricted to Long-Term Holders (more than two years of holding). When this metric spikes it marks major capitulation across the OG holder cohort — historically a rare and high-information event.
What is it?
Pain Index LTH applies the same composite formula as the global Pain Index (#358) but filtering only UTXOs held for more than two years. The LTH (Long-Term Holders) cohort groups historical holders — typically entered during previous cycles, having weathered at least one bear market and possessing a very low cost basis. A significant rise of Pain Index LTH translates that even the strongest hands are starting to face unrealised loss — a statistically rare event.
How to read
Read the current value with a different calibration than Pain Index STH or global. Pain Index LTH rarely goes above 15-20 — the LTH cohort has by construction a very low cost basis. A reading above 30 characterises major stress — historically only observed at extreme bear market troughs. Above 50, we speak of OG capitulation — a market event of historical rank, typically followed by a structural cycle bottom.
Key zones
Zone 0-15: OG in total comfort, LTH supply largely in profit. Zone 15-30: moderate stress, some recent LTH (entered near a previous cycle top) start seeing their position erode. Zone 30+: alarm, OG capitulation underway — rare event. Zone 50+: systemic cross-cohort capitulation, historically observed only a few times in Bitcoin history.
What to observe
Pain Index LTH is slow by construction — LTH rarely transact, their cost basis evolves slowly. A sudden acceleration is therefore highly informative. The typical systemic capitulation sequence starts with STH spiking, then progressive bascule toward LTH, and culminates when both indices are simultaneously high. Also observe correlation with global Pain Index and with invested-capital-in-loss (#363) to confirm the broad nature of the event.
Historical context
Historical cases where Pain Index LTH exceeded 30 are few: the deep 2014-2015 bear market trough (August 2015), the post-2017 trough (December 2018), the post-COVID trough briefly (March 2020) and the post-FTX trough (November-December 2022). Each of these episodes preceded a structural cycle bottom. The rarity of the event makes it particularly valuable for macro on-chain analysis.
Expert notes
The 2-year threshold for the LTH cohort is stricter than the historical 155-day convention used by some platforms — Trinity prefers a strict LTH definition (>2 years) to isolate the true OG holder cohort. This definition removes from the calculation intermediate holders (between 6 months and 2 years) who are semantically between STH and LTH. The strict LTH metric is therefore more demanding and less volatile than the market average.
Common mistakes to avoid
Believing that a low Pain Index LTH guarantees absence of systemic risk is false. A sudden rise can occur in a few days during an extreme movement — the structural slowness of the LTH cohort does not mean immobility. Conversely, a Pain Index LTH high that persists for several months characterises a deep bear market but does not necessarily preface an imminent trough — some bear markets saw several successive waves of OG capitulation.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/pain-index-lth/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "pain-index-lth",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.