Bottom Models Overlay
Stacks BTC price against three cycle-bottom valuation models - Realized Price, Delta Price and CVDD. A multi-line wrapper to read distance versus historical floors.
What is it?
Bottom Models Overlay is a multi-line wrapper stacking on a single chart the BTC price and three independent cycle-bottom models: (1) Realized Price = realized cap / supply, aggregate market cost basis; (2) Delta Price = (realized cap - average cap) / supply, absolute floor calibrated on historical bottoms; (3) CVDD = Σ(CDD × price) / (network age × 6,000,000), a slowly rising structural floor derived from real Coin Days Destroyed. Combined read to situate the current price against industry-convention floors.
How to read
Read the BTC price distance vs each model: when price approaches Realized Price, the aggregate market is near break-even - typical capitulation zone. When price touches Delta Price (lower model), this is historically the absolute cycle bottom. CVDD reads as a slow-rising structural floor: price has only approached it during the most extreme capitulations, and the price / CVDD distance measures the market premium above that floor. The three models frame the deep capitulation zone, with Delta Price usually reading below CVDD.
Key zones
Price zone > Realized Price: aggregate market in unrealized profit (typical bull to neutral). Price zone ≈ Realized Price: aggregate break-even, market under stress. Price zone < Realized Price: aggregate market in unrealized loss (typical deep bear). Price zone < Delta Price: extreme historical bottom zone - structural cycle bottom. Price zone < CVDD: slow-rising structural floor, approached only during major capitulations.
What to observe
Watch the price touch and bounce off Realized Price - often the initial capitulation marker in bear markets. Watch the approach to Delta Price - historically, price rarely touches this floor, and when it does, the bottom is generally reached within a few weeks. Also watch convergence toward CVDD: it marks advanced capitulation, and its slope indicates historical on-chain activity weighted by price.
Historical context
The three models have historically marked major BTC cycle bottoms. Realized Price is touched every bear cycle; Delta Price has been touched at the deepest bottoms; CVDD approached the 2015 and 2018 troughs and was approached again in 2022, a handful of occurrences, too few to derive a success rate from. The models rely on aggregate cost basis, average market cap and Coin Days Destroyed - structural metrics little sensitive to short-term sentiment.
Expert notes
The overlay is a visual wrapper - each individual model is available in its dedicated chart with detailed analysis. Use for macro cycle reading. Models self-recalibrate with new on-chain data, making the absolute read less relevant than the read relative to current price.
Common mistakes to avoid
Reaching a floor model is NOT a guarantee of a bottom - it is a probabilistic indicator based on past cycles. Price can break these floors temporarily before bouncing (technical overshoot). Always cross-reference with sentiment indicators (Fear & Greed, NUPL) to confirm.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/metrics/bottom-models-overlay/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "bottom-models-overlay",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.