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CVDD - Cumulative Value Days Destroyed

Market cap divided by cumulative sum of value-days destroyed, producing a long-run floor price model. Historically, Bitcoin price has rarely sustained below CVDD - it marks historically significant accumulation zones.

Tier proOn-chain Bitcoinvaluationcvddfloor-pricebottom-signalcoin-days

What is it?

CVDD is a floor price heuristic created by Willy Woo (2019), derived from accumulated coin-time destroyed weighted by price. The formula: Σ(CDD × price) / (network_age × 6,000,000). The 6M factor is an empirical calibrator. The result is a slowly rising floor price reflecting the minimum value justified by the network's accumulated temporal 'work.' Our calculation uses real Coin Days Destroyed data from the blockchain.

How to read

CVDD is plotted as a very slowly ascending line well below spot price. Price has historically only touched CVDD during the most extreme capitulations. The distance between price and CVDD measures the 'market premium' over the structural floor. In bull markets, this distance extends; in bear markets, it compresses.

Key zones

CVDD has historically served as support during major capitulations (2015, 2018, approached in 2022). The price / CVDD distance as a multiple indicates the 'market premium': historically, > 10x has coincided with extended markets, < 2x with floor phases - but these benchmarks depend on implementation and dataset.

What to observe

Price convergence toward CVDD in a bear market is an indication of advanced capitulation. CVDD slope indicates historical on-chain activity weighted by price.

Historical context

CVDD captured the absolute troughs of 2015 and 2018, and was approached in 2022. That is a handful of occurrences over the whole available history, too few to derive a success rate from. The reputation as an ultimate floor attached to it rests on those few cases, not on a statistical measurement.

Expert notes

CVDD is part of a family of four price models created by Willy Woo: CVDD (floor), Delta Price, Balanced Price, and Terminal Price (ceiling). Together they form a structural 'valuation corridor.' CVDD is also a component of Balanced Price.

Common mistakes to avoid

CVDD as 'eternal support' is a dangerous extrapolation. With only 4 historical tests, statistical robustness is low. An unprecedented event could break this support. Use it as a context guide, not a guarantee.

Programmatic access

REST API

curl -sS \
  'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/cvdd/history?days=90' \
  -H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'

MCP server

{
  "tool": "get_chart_value",
  "metric_id": "cvdd",
  "timeframe": "1y"
}

Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.

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Institutional disclaimer

Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.