Top Models Overlay
Stacks BTC price against two classic cycle-top valuation models - Top Cap and Terminal Price. A multi-line wrapper to read distance versus historical ceilings.
What is it?
Top Models Overlay is a multi-line wrapper stacking on a single chart the BTC price and two independent cycle-top models: (1) Top Cap = average cap × 35 / supply, historical ceiling calibrated on past cycles; (2) Terminal Price = 21 × Transferred Price, ceiling derived from coindays destruction. Combined read to situate the current price against industry-convention upper bounds.
How to read
Read the BTC price distance vs each model: when price approaches Top Cap, historical major cycle-top marker. Terminal Price is generally the highest ceiling - reaching it marks euphoric tops. The gap between the two models provides an uncertainty range.
Key zones
Price zone < Top Cap: advanced distribution phase typical of late bull markets approaching. Price zone > Top Cap: rare historical euphoria zone. Price zone > Terminal Price: extreme parabolic extension, imminent top marker.
What to observe
Watch phases where price enters the zone between the two models: this is typically the final distribution quadrant. Also watch price returning below Top Cap after exceeding it - this is often the structural reversal confirmator post-top.
Historical context
The two models were published at different times by independent analysts in the on-chain convention - each calibrated on pre-2024 BTC cycles. Top Cap and Terminal Price both rely on coindays destruction and aggregate cost basis. Both have historically framed cycle tops with good relative precision.
Expert notes
The overlay is a visual wrapper - each individual model is available in its dedicated chart with detailed analysis. Use the overlay for macro cycle reading, not precise timing. Models self-recalibrate with new on-chain data, so dynamic thresholds evolve cycle after cycle.
Common mistakes to avoid
Reaching a ceiling model is NOT a guarantee of a top - it is a probabilistic indicator based on past cycles. Post-2024 regimes (ETFs, institutional) can extend or compress the validity zones of these models. Always contextualize with macro fundamentals (monetary policy, institutional flows).
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/top-models-overlay/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "top-models-overlay",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.