Delta Price
Defined as (Realized Cap - Average Cap) / Supply, where Average Cap is the cumulative mean of all daily market caps. Delta Price has historically served as the absolute low during bear markets and is considered one of the strongest bottom models.
What is it?
Delta Price is calculated as the difference between Realized Cap and the cumulative average of Market Cap since genesis (cumulative Market Cap divided by days since the first block), divided by circulating supply. It is the lowest theoretical floor of the Woo framework, below CVDD and Balanced Price. It represents the 'minimum justifiable price' by removing historical speculative excess from Realized Price.
How to read
Delta Price is a very low line on the price chart. Spot price has historically never touched Delta Price. It serves as a theoretical lower bound - 'the price below which Bitcoin should not structurally descend' according to this model.
Key zones
Delta Price is always the lowest support among on-chain models. Its ratio with other price models (Balanced, CVDD, Realized) is stable across cycles.
What to observe
If spot price approached Delta Price, it would be a historically unprecedented event, marking extreme value destruction beyond any observed bear market.
Historical context
Delta Price has always been 60-80% below each bear market trough. In 2022, the trough was ~$15.5K and Delta Price was ~$8K. It has therefore never been tested as actual support.
Expert notes
Delta Price's main utility is as a lower bound for probability calculations and as a component of other models. Its primary interest is conceptual: it shows 'how far the market could theoretically fall' in a catastrophe scenario, helping calibrate risk models.
Common mistakes to avoid
Delta Price has NEVER been tested as support, making its 'effectiveness' impossible to empirically evaluate. It is a mathematical construct, not a proven support. Do not use it as a trading indication.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/delta-price/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "delta-price",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.