BTC / Gold Correlation
Rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and gold daily returns, bounded -1 to +1. A positive correlation indicates a linear co-movement of returns over the window, without identifying its causes; a value near zero indicates a weak linear correlation, without proving the independence of the explanatory factors. Complements the Gold / BTC ratio, which compares levels rather than co-movement.
What is it?
This metric computes the rolling 90-day Pearson correlation between Bitcoin and gold daily returns, bounded between -1 and +1. Gold is the reference monetary metal and the benchmark against which the digital gold thesis is stated. The gold series is the PAXG/USD spot of Kraken read via Coinalyze (written licence: credit and dofollow link), the same gold leg that powers the Gold / BTC ratio chart. One lineage spans the library. Correlation is computed on returns over a 90-day rolling window. The chart starts at the first date that window can be computed entirely on that gold leg (27 January 2020): no earlier point exists, and none is claimed.
How to read
Three series are displayed: the correlation line (primary, bounded -1 to +1), the gold price level and the BTC price for context, with a zero line. Sustained positive readings describe phases of positive linear co-movement between the two return series over the window. Readings around zero describe a weak linear correlation, without proving that BTC follows its own drivers. Negative readings, historically less frequent, describe phases where the two return series moved in opposite directions over the window.
Key zones
Readings above +0.4 describe strong positive co-movement, historically visible when real rates and the dollar moved alongside both assets. The -0.2 to +0.2 band is the near-zero zone, frequent across the history. Readings below -0.2 describe negative co-movement and have tended to be short-lived. Boundaries are calibrated on the observed historical range as reading aids. The coefficient measures co-movement only, not the force that produces it.
What to observe
Track whether the correlation rises when macro uncertainty rises: the two assets then move together, without the coefficient saying why. Cross-read with the BTC / M2 correlation: simultaneous elevated readings on gold and M2 lenses describe a joint co-movement, not a proven common cause. Watch divergences with the Gold / BTC ratio: the ratio can trend while co-movement stays high, and the distinction between relative performance and co-movement is precisely what this pairing reveals.
Historical context
The recorded history shows alternating phases: episodes of joint rise (both assets rising with falling real rates), long stretches of near-zero correlation where BTC followed crypto-native cycles, and divergence episodes around major regime shifts such as the post-2024 institutionalisation of BTC through spot vehicles. The chart shows these phases; the coefficient does not establish their cause.
Expert notes
Gold (PAXG) quotes continuously, weekends included, so the alignment does not forward-fill it. The proxy can carry a small premium or discount versus the LBMA fixing, which the reading absorbs. A 90-day window will lag turning points by construction: a regime that begins today reaches full weight in the reading only after the window rolls through it.
Common mistakes to avoid
A high correlation with gold does not make BTC a proven store of value: co-movement over 90 days is not a statement about long-run purchasing power. A near-zero reading does not invalidate the digital gold thesis either; it locates the current regime. Correlation says nothing about relative magnitude: gold and BTC volatilities differ by a large factor, so identical correlation can hide very different risk contributions. It also says nothing about the cause of the co-movement.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/macro-intelligence/metrics/macro-v2-corr-btc-gold/data?timeframe=90d' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "macro-v2-corr-btc-gold",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.