Sell-Side Risk Ratio STH
Sell-Side Risk Ratio applied to the short-term holder cohort (UTXOs younger than ~155 days). Reflects speculator-driven activity and reactive turnover.
What is it?
Cohort variant of SSR: `(sth_realized_profit + sth_realized_loss) / sth_realized_cap × 100`, smoothed over 7 days. Isolates activity from Short-Term Holders, that is UTXOs created within the past ~155 days according to industry convention. The result captures speculator-side selling pressure: short-term profit-taking, panic-selling on pullbacks, or high churn during extension phases.
How to read
STH SSR is markedly more volatile than the global SSR. One-off spikes above 2% are frequent and reflect speculator rotations. Read the 30-day trend rather than point values. A high and persistent STH SSR indicates that an active speculative layer is rapidly taking profit or capitulating - a phenomenon typical of late short-term rallies or flash capitulation phases.
Key zones
STH capitulation zone < 0.5%: speculator exhaustion phase (rare, local-bottom marker). Normal zone 0.5%-1.5%: healthy speculator activity, stable market. STH euphoria zone > 1.5%: aggressive profit-taking or panic-selling. Isolated spikes > 3% often mark event-driven flushes (liquidations, panic).
What to observe
Watch the STH vs LTH divergence: if STH SSR spikes but LTH SSR remains calm, speculators are agitating the market - often reversible within 2-4 weeks. Conversely, if LTH SSR rejoins STH SSR levels, conviction holders are also capitulating - a much more structural indicator.
Historical context
STH SSR has historically preceded speculative rotations by several weeks: its spikes correspond to parabolic extension phases typical of bull runs where new entrants quickly exit with modest profit, or to flash capitulations after sharp crashes when recent positions panic-close. The 155-day convention follows the same rule as the broader on-chain literature derived from Long/Short-Term Holders.
Expert notes
STH SSR is very reactive and noisy - it is designed to indicate rapid rotations, not structural regimes. For macro cycle reading, prefer the global SSR or LTH SSR. Spikes > 5% are almost always event-driven artifacts (ETF flushes, DEX liquidations) - check the date before interpretation.
Common mistakes to avoid
An isolated STH SSR spike does not indicate a top - it just indicates that a speculative cohort is moving. Always combine with other cohort indicators (STH SOPR, STH Realized PnL Momentum) before inferring. Also: the 155-day convention is an industry heuristic, not a scientific threshold - speculator behavior does not flip instantly at D+155.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/sell-side-risk-ratio-sth/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "sell-side-risk-ratio-sth",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.