Sell-Side Risk Ratio LTH
Sell-Side Risk Ratio applied to the long-term holder cohort (UTXOs older than ~155 days). Reflects conviction-side activity - when LTHs ramp up, distribution phases tend to follow.
What is it?
Cohort variant of SSR: `(lth_realized_profit + lth_realized_loss) / lth_realized_cap × 100`, smoothed over 7 days. Isolates activity from Long-Term Holders, that is UTXOs created more than ~155 days ago according to industry convention. The result captures conviction-side selling pressure: progressive profit-taking in bull markets, or late capitulation in deep bears. Much slower and more structural than the STH version.
How to read
LTH SSR is meaningfully calmer than the global or STH SSR. Its sustained climbs are strong markers because conviction holders don't move on a whim. An LTH SSR rising from 0.2% to 0.8% over several months = structural distribution underway. Conversely, an LTH SSR persistently below 0.2% indicates firmly hodling conviction holders - typical of institutional accumulation.
Key zones
Strong LTH accumulation zone < 0.2%: conviction holders at rest, market in deep accumulation phase. LTH neutral zone 0.2%-0.8%: normal reallocation activity. LTH distribution zone > 0.8%: conviction holders actively taking profit, historically very reliable pre-top marker. LTH transitions are slow: exiting a zone usually takes several weeks to several months.
What to observe
LTH SSR is the best indicator of structural transition toward cycle tops. If LTH SSR exceeds 1% in sustained growth, final distribution is underway - prepare positions. Conversely, the return below 0.3% in deep bear indicates that conviction holders have finished capitulating - prepare to accumulate.
Historical context
LTH SSR behavior has been remarkably regular across Bitcoin cycles: low phase in post-bear accumulation (below 0.3%), gradual rise in early-bull (0.3% → 0.5%), then marked acceleration in top distribution phase (> 0.8%). The 155-day convention used to discriminate LTH/STH follows the industry-standard literature.
Expert notes
LTH SSR is the most important cadence indicator for institutional desks - it filters short-term noise and reveals true distribution cadence. Cross-reference with LTH SOPR and LTH Realized PnL Momentum to confirm direction (profit vs loss).
Common mistakes to avoid
A high LTH SSR does not mean LTH holders are panicking - it means they are taking profit. Direction (profit vs loss) must be confirmed by LTH SOPR or LTH Realized PnL. Also: the slowness of LTH SSR means indicators appear with lag - favor as confirmation, not as early predictor.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/sell-side-risk-ratio-lth/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "sell-side-risk-ratio-lth",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.