Sell-Side Risk Ratio
Daily on-chain realized value (profit + loss) divided by the total realized cap, smoothed over 7 days. A compact percentage gauge of the selling pressure relative to the wealth stored on-chain.
What is it?
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio measures the weight of realized on-chain transactions (sum of daily profit and loss) relative to the total realized cap accumulated across all holders. The formula is `(realized_profit + realized_loss) / realized_cap × 100`, smoothed via a 7-day moving average to reduce daily noise. The result is a percentage: it quantifies, as a share, how much on-chain wealth changes hands every day. A published convention for measuring structural selling pressure.
How to read
Read the ratio as the intensity of selling pressure: below 0.5% nearly all holders remain passive (capitulation zone or post-bear apathy); between 0.5% and 1.5% activity is neutral, typical of accumulation or consolidation; above 1.5% selling pressure becomes sustained, typical of late bull markets where profit-taking intensifies. The 7-day SMA filters out one-off spikes (liquidations, dust, isolated events) - favor the smoothed reading.
Key zones
Capitulation zone < 0.5%: little profit or loss-taking, dormant market, often cycle bottom. Neutral zone 0.5%-1.5%: market in accumulation or consolidation, neither stress nor euphoria. Euphoria zone > 1.5%: heavy profit-taking, typically late bull. Thresholds should be interpreted with the duration spent in each zone - an isolated one-off spike >1.5% is less informative than a zone held for several weeks.
What to observe
Watch for sustained transitions between zones: a move from the neutral zone into the euphoria zone over several weeks has historically preceded cycle tops, especially when the LTH SSR accelerates at the same time. Conversely, a crash into the capitulation zone after an euphoria zone indicates market exhaustion. SSR vs price divergence is very informative: price rising while SSR falls = rally without selling pressure (healthy), price rising with SSR spiking = bull sustained by aggressive profit-taking.
Historical context
Structural selling pressure, measured by profit-loss ratios over realized cap, was formalized in the on-chain literature starting in 2023 as a cycle diagnostic tool. Every bull cycle has printed an SSR peak > 1.5% during top distribution phases; every bear cycle has touched floors < 0.3% in deep capitulation. The ratio remains one of the most stable indicators for identifying regime transitions without dependence on an absolute valuation model.
Expert notes
SSR is a cadence indicator: it tells how much on-chain wealth moves, not in which direction. A high SSR combined with positive Net Realized PnL = heavy profit-taking (potential top). A high SSR combined with negative Net Realized PnL = forced capitulation (potential bottom). Always cross-reference with the profit-loss decomposition to interpret correctly.
Common mistakes to avoid
SSR is not a directional indicator - it does not say whether pressure comes from winners or losers. Always cross-reference with the separate profit and loss components before inferring flow direction. Additionally, a one-off high SSR over 1-2 days may be a liquidation artifact; the 7-day SMA is designed to filter this noise - always prefer the smoothed reading.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/sell-side-risk-ratio/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "sell-side-risk-ratio",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.