MVRV Risk ScoreTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - MVRV percentile rank (0-100) measuring where Bitcoin's valuation stands relative to its full history. Near 0 = deepest value; near 100 = maximum overheating.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The MVRV Risk Score transforms MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) into a 0-100 risk score via historical percentile rank. MVRV measures how elevated the current price is relative to the market's average cost basis (Realized Price). The percentile ranks the current MVRV value against all its historical values (expanding window, minimum 365 days). A score of 10 means current MVRV is lower than 90% of history - deep value zone. A score of 90 means it's higher than 90% - overheating zone.
How to read
Score 0-20: deep value, MVRV in its lowest 20% historically. Score 20-40: accumulation zone. Score 40-60: neutral zone. Score 60-80: hot market, caution. Score 80-100: extreme overheating, MVRV in its highest 20%.
Key zones
Scores < 15 have historically coincided with absolute troughs (MVRV < 1.0, market at a loss). Scores > 85 coincided with cycle tops (MVRV > 3.5). The advantage of percentile over raw MVRV: it self-calibrates across cycles.
What to observe
Score change speed is informative: a rapid move from 20 to 60 marks a momentum reversal. Score/price divergences are leading indicators.
Historical context
MVRV is one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for cyclical evaluation (created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell, 2018). The percentile adds a normalization layer that eliminates the fixed threshold problem (MVRV > 3.5 in 2013 vs 2017 vs 2021 has different absolute meanings but similar percentile meanings).
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - Expanding percentile (min 365d) avoids fixed lookback bias. The score naturally compresses toward 50 over time as more data is added to the distribution. For intra-cycle analysis, a rolling percentile (1460d = 1 cycle) may be more relevant.
Common mistakes to avoid
The score does not predict future price. A low score does not mean 'buy' - MVRV can remain in its low percentiles for months. The percentile is retrospective by nature. Also, a score of 50 does not mean 'neutral' but 'historical median' - as the market matures, high scores become structurally rarer.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/risk-reward-bands/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "risk-reward-bands",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.