Reserve Risk
Compares the current market incentive to sell (price) against the conviction of long-term holders (HODL Bank). Low reserve risk marks strong conviction; high reserve risk marks weak conviction relative to price.
What is it?
Reserve Risk quantifies long-term holder confidence in relation to spot price. It is calculated as price divided by the HODL Bank (the sum of all accumulated coin days, weighted by price). When Reserve Risk is low, confidence is high relative to price - HODLers are accumulating conviction (coin days) without being 'rewarded' by a high price. When Reserve Risk is high, confidence is underpaid - price is high relative to accumulated conviction. Created by Hans Hauge.
How to read
Reserve Risk is displayed on a logarithmic scale with colour zones. The green zone (low Reserve Risk) indicates HODLer patience is 'accumulating' without proportional price reward - conditions that have historically coincided with cycle troughs. The red zone (high Reserve Risk) indicates price has 'advanced' beyond what conviction would justify - overheating zones.
Key zones
Green zone (< 0.002): massive conviction unrewarded by price - condition historically associated with cycle troughs. Red zone (> 0.02): price disproportionate to HODLer conviction - condition observed at speculative tops (December 2017: ~0.024). Intermediate zone (0.002-0.02): normal conditions. Thresholds are expressed on a log scale and have been relatively stable across cycles.
What to observe
Time spent in the green zone is proportional to 'accumulated pressure': the longer Reserve Risk stays low, the more HODL Bank accumulates, creating a 'conviction reserve' that can support a prolonged rally. The speed of green-to-red transition measures the rapidity of conviction 'cash-out.'
Historical context
Reserve Risk stayed in the green zone for all of 2015, all of 2019, and nearly all of 2022-2023. Each of these periods preceded major rallies. It entered the red zone briefly in December 2017, March/April 2021, and November 2021. Duration in the red zone tends to decrease each cycle (from weeks in 2017 to days in 2021).
Expert notes
Reserve Risk is structurally linked to Liveliness via the HODL Bank. When Liveliness falls (net HODLing), HODL Bank increases, pushing Reserve Risk down. This loop makes Reserve Risk a 'temporal integrator' of conviction - it captures long-term trends better than instantaneous indicators. Its relative stability across cycles makes it one of the most consistent indicators for multi-cycle analysis.
Common mistakes to avoid
Reserve Risk in the green zone does not mean 'price will rise tomorrow.' It can stay green for 18+ months (as in 2015 or 2019). It is an indicator of favourable conditions, not a timing tool. Similarly, a brief red zone does not necessarily mean a top - it indicates caution conditions that can persist if conviction continues to pour in.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/reserve-risk/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "reserve-risk",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.