NUPL Classic
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Maps the market's aggregate emotional state: euphoria (>0.75), belief, optimism, anxiety, capitulation (<0).
What is it?
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is calculated as (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap, giving the percentage of Market Cap that represents net latent profit. NUPL ranges from -1 (theoretical total loss) to +1 (maximum profit). It is mathematically related to MVRV: NUPL = 1 - (1/MVRV). The indicator was popularised with colour zones associated with market emotional states: capitulation, hope, optimism, belief, euphoria, and greed.
How to read
Traditional zones are: < 0 (red, capitulation), 0-0.25 (orange, hope/fear), 0.25-0.5 (yellow, optimism/anxiety), 0.5-0.75 (green, belief/denial), > 0.75 (blue, euphoria/greed). These zones are heuristic guides, not absolute rules. Crossing 0 (from net loss to net profit) is a critical moment in each cycle.
Key zones
NUPL < 0: pure capitulation, the entire network is at a loss. NUPL 0.5: historical threshold beyond which the probability of significant correction increases. NUPL > 0.75: euphoric conditions, observed only at absolute cycle tops. Retests of NUPL = 0.5 have often been 'conviction tests' in bull markets.
What to observe
Time spent in each zone is as informative as the level. Prolonged stays in the optimism zone (0.25-0.5) have historically been the most constructive phases. Rapid passages through zones (from 0 to 0.75 in weeks) have been associated with unsustainable rallies. Divergences between NUPL and price (price rising but NUPL stagnating) mark Realized Cap absorption.
Historical context
The 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 tops all saw NUPL exceed 0.75. The 2012, 2015, 2018, and 2022 troughs all saw NUPL drop below 0. The 2022 capitulation phase (NUPL < 0 for ~6 months) was the longest since 2015. Peak NUPL levels have shown a slight compression trend (0.88 in 2013, 0.77 in 2017, 0.74 in 2021).
Expert notes
NUPL by age cohort (metric #22) offers superior resolution by decomposing sentiment by holder type. Classic NUPL is dominated by LTH in volume - their profits/losses weigh disproportionately. To isolate 'marginal buyer' sentiment (recent buyers), STH NUPL is more relevant. NUPL is exactly equivalent to (1 - 1/MVRV), so any MVRV analysis can be translated to NUPL and vice versa.
Common mistakes to avoid
Colour zones ('euphoria,' 'greed') are subjective labels, not scientific truths. They were defined retrospectively by fitting thresholds to past cycles. Extrapolating these labels as future certainties is an overfitting bias. NUPL is a probabilistic context tool, not a binary reading.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/nupl-classic/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "nupl-classic",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.