Realized Price Percentiles
Realized Price framed by five rolling historical percentiles (p5/p25/p50/p75/p95) over a two-year window. The percentile envelope shows where the current cost basis sits within its own recent statistical distribution.
What is it?
This view plots Realized Price (aggregate cost basis) alongside five percentiles computed over a rolling two-year window. The percentile envelope shows where the current cost basis sits within its own recent statistical distribution, independent of any volatility assumption. Recomputed from native realized price.
How to read
The median (p50) is the typical level over two years; p5 and p95 mark the low and high extremes of the window. A Realized Price near p95 indicates it is high relative to its recent history; near p5, that it is low. Percentile spread measures recent dispersion. Enable the BTC overlay to see spot price navigate inside the percentile envelope on the same USD log axis: the price's relative position versus its rolling percentiles becomes directly visible.
Key zones
The inter-quartile band (p25-p75) delimits normal behaviour; beyond p95 or below p5, the cost basis reaches statistically rare positions over the two-year window.
What to observe
Watch the Realized Price crossing percentiles and the widening or narrowing of the percentile fan, which reflects an acceleration or stabilisation of the cost basis.
Historical context
The percentile fan widened sharply during fast expansions (rising cost basis) and narrowed during long consolidations. The two-year window captures roughly half a cycle, offering a relative rather than absolute frame.
Expert notes
Rolling two-year percentiles are by construction relative to the window: they do not say whether the market is expensive in absolute terms, but where the cost basis sits versus its recent past. Combine with an absolute metric such as MVRV for a complete reading.
Common mistakes to avoid
A Realized Price at p95 does not mean a top is near — it means it is high over two years, which is normal in an uptrend. The envelope describes relative position, not a reversal probability.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/realized-price-percentiles/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "realized-price-percentiles",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.