Realized Price ±σ Bands
Realized Price framed by ±0.5/1.0/1.5/2.0 fair-value bands whose width scales with the historical volatility of market valuation. The shaded envelopes mark statistically rich and cheap zones around the aggregate cost basis.
What is it?
Realized Price is the aggregate cost basis of circulating supply (the valuation at which each coin last moved). This view frames it with eight fair-value bands whose amplitude is driven by the historical volatility of MVRV: the more dispersed market valuation has been historically, the further the bands spread from the cost basis. Recomputed from native realized price and MVRV (no pre-computed band series).
How to read
The central line is the aggregate cost basis. Read the price relative to the bands: a price in the upper band (beyond +1.5σ) marks a statistically rich valuation; a price in the lower band (below -1.5σ) marks a statistically cheap valuation. Enable the BTC overlay to see spot price navigate directly inside the bands: it shares the same USD log axis as the bands, making the reading «is BTC rich or cheap relative to its cost basis?» immediate.
Key zones
The central Realized Price historically acts as support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets. The ±1σ bands delimit the normal-valuation zone; ±2σ the rare extremes of richness or deep discount.
What to observe
Watch visits of spot price into the extreme bands: repeated incursions into the upper band accompanied cycle tops, visits to the lower band marked bottoms. The slope of the central Realized Price informs on accumulation (rising) or distribution (flattening).
Historical context
Spot price plunged into the lower band at major cycle bottoms (late 2018, mid-2022) and stretched into the upper band at tops. Realized Price itself has only rarely declined, marking the rare capitulation phases where coins acquired higher changed hands.
Expert notes
With band amplitude driven by the expanding volatility of MVRV, it adjusts to market maturation: as dispersion has narrowed across cycles, the most recent bands are tighter than those of the early years.
Common mistakes to avoid
The bands are not price targets: a price in the upper band can stay there during a strong trend. Realized Price is not an equilibrium price but an average cost basis; it can be durably crossed in either direction.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/realized-price-mvrv-bands/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "realized-price-mvrv-bands",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.