Realized Price BandsTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Three dynamic support/resistance levels: Global Realized Price, STH cost basis, and LTH cost basis. All from native full-node data, updated daily.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
Realized Price Bands overlay three distinct realized price levels on the price chart: Global Realized Price (average cost basis of all UTXOs), STH Realized Price (average cost basis of short-term holders, < 155 days) and LTH Realized Price (average cost basis of long-term holders, > 155 days). Each line represents the volume-weighted average acquisition price for its respective cohort. These three levels act as dynamic support and resistance anchored in real on-chain data, not technical projections.
How to read
In bull markets, price stays above all three bands (everyone is in profit). The first warning is when price breaks below STH RP - recent buyers are at a loss. If price breaks below Global RP, the average holder is at a loss: this historically confirms a bear market. LTH RP acts as ultimate support - it has only been briefly broken during extreme capitulations (March 2020, Nov 2022).
Key zones
Price > STH RP > Global RP > LTH RP = healthy bull market (all in profit, STH paid high but still gaining). STH RP > Price > Global RP = correction (STH at loss, LTH in profit). Global RP > Price = bear market (average holder at loss). Price < LTH RP = extreme capitulation (even long-term holders at loss - historical rarity).
What to observe
The gap between STH RP and LTH RP reflects market polarisation. A wide gap (STH RP >> LTH RP) means new entrants are paying much more than HODLers - vulnerable configuration. A narrow gap means cost basis convergence - often observed during bear market accumulation. The speed of price convergence toward Global RP indicates correction severity.
Historical context
Two archetypal configurations read through history. At cycle tops (December 2017, November 2021), all three lines diverge maximally: price flies above an already elevated STH RP, itself far above LTH RP - pure bubble signature. At cycle bottoms (December 2018, March 2020, December 2022), all three lines converge tightly with price just below STH RP - maximum compression and deep accumulation signature. In post-euphoria correction phases, STH RP crosses above price (STH in unrealised loss) while LTH RP remains far below (LTH comfortably in profit) - the typical configuration of supply transfer from weak hands to strong hands.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - All three realized prices come directly from the full Bitcoin node - zero proxy, zero estimation. The 155-day threshold separating STH and LTH is the industry standard convention (UTXO survival curve inflection point). Global RP structurally rises because each BTC spent at a price higher than its previous cost basis raises the average. It can only decline if BTC are spent at prices below the average (which happens in intense bear markets).
Common mistakes to avoid
Treating Global RP as an 'absolute floor' is dangerous - price can remain below for months (all of 2022). Similarly, crossing above STH RP is not an immediate buy indication as the trend can continue. Lost coins (~3.7M BTC) bias Global and LTH RP downward because their cost basis is very old (< $1K). Without these coins, Global RP would be significantly higher.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/realized-price-bands/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "realized-price-bands",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.