MVRV Long-Term Holders
MVRV for coins held >155 days. LTH profit levels above 3.5x have historically preceded major distribution events.
What is it?
LTH-MVRV isolates the long-term holder cohort (> 155 days) to calculate their specific latent profit/loss ratio. Since these holders historically have a lower cost basis and lower propensity to sell, their MVRV tends to be structurally higher than global MVRV. The interest lies in moments when these patient holders begin realising profits - a potential indication of large-scale redistribution.
How to read
LTH-MVRV is almost always above 1 (long-term holders rarely have a cost basis above current price, by construction). Extremely high values (> 5) have coincided with cycle tops where LTH had considerable profit multiples. The rare dips below 1 (2015, 2018, 2022) were indications of extreme capitulation even among strong hands.
Key zones
LTH-MVRV > 5: LTH sitting on 5x+ profits, historical zone of major distribution. LTH-MVRV 2-5: comfortable profit but no systematic sell pressure. LTH-MVRV 1-2: transition zone, LTH in slight profit. LTH-MVRV < 1: rare event marking even long-term holders are in loss - extreme bear market conditions.
What to observe
The LTH-MVRV inflection point (when it starts descending from a peak) is historically more informative than the level itself. A rapid LTH-MVRV descent accompanied by rising Revived Supply indicates LTH are actively distributing into market strength. Also watch the divergence between STH-MVRV and LTH-MVRV: when STH-MVRV rises faster than LTH-MVRV, weak hands are gaining in proportion.
Historical context
LTH-MVRV reached approximately 35 at the 2013 peak, ~12 in 2017, and ~5.5 in 2021 - illustrating the progressive compression of LTH profit multiples with market maturation. Dips below 1 in 2015 (0.85), 2018 (0.74), and 2022 (0.70) each marked the absolute bear market troughs within a few weeks.
Expert notes
LTH-MVRV is intimately linked to Reserve Risk: Reserve Risk = price / (LTH-HODL-days × price). When LTH-MVRV is high AND Reserve Risk is high, the combination suggests LTH confidence is overvalued relative to price. LTH-MVRV is also the basis for NUPL by LTH cohort: NUPL-LTH = (LTH-MVRV - 1) / LTH-MVRV.
Common mistakes to avoid
Structurally high LTH-MVRV is not a 'permanent sell indication.' LTH are, by definition, patient holders - an LTH-MVRV of 3 can stay at 3 for months without significant distribution. The timing of LTH distribution depends on on-chain and off-chain factors that MVRV alone does not capture. Use it in combination with Revived Supply and LTH SOPR.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/mvrv-lth/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "mvrv-lth",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.