NUPL by Age Cohort
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss broken down by holder cohort (STH and LTH). Reveals the divergent profit states of recent buyers versus long-term holders at any point in the cycle.
What is it?
NUPL by cohort applies the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss calculation separately to the two main holding cohorts: Short-Term Holders (STH, < 155 days) and Long-Term Holders (LTH, > 155 days). Each cohort's NUPL is derived from their respective MVRV: NUPL = 1 - (1/MVRV). This reveals dynamics invisible in global NUPL: STH may be in deep loss while LTH are in massive profit, or vice versa.
How to read
Two NUPL lines are displayed: STH (short-term) and LTH (long-term). Lines above zero are in profit, those below in loss. The spread between the two lines is highly informative: convergence (both close) marks consensus, wide divergence (LTH in strong profit, STH in loss) marks a fragmented market. When both cohorts cross above zero simultaneously, it is a historically strong indication.
Key zones
When both STH-NUPL and LTH-NUPL are above 0.5, it indicates bullish consensus across all holder generations. When STH-NUPL drops below zero while LTH-NUPL stays broadly positive, it identifies recent buyers as the most stressed - classic in early bear markets.
What to observe
The 'maximum pain point' typically concentrates on STH: their recent cost basis makes them most vulnerable to a correction. When STH-NUPL crosses below zero, recent buyers become the primary source of potential sell pressure. The STH-then-LTH cascade is the major macro indicator: as long as LTH-NUPL stays positive, the 'last bastion' of patient holders holds. A LTH-NUPL below zero marks a rare structural capitulation (major cycle bottoms).
Historical context
In 2022, STH-NUPL crossed below zero as early as May during the Luna-3AC crash, marking the capitulation of recent buyers. LTH-NUPL tipped into deeply negative territory in November during the FTX collapse - indicating that even patient holders had entered latent loss. This STH → LTH cascade marked the major cycle bottom. Conversely, the simultaneous return of both series above zero in early 2023 confirmed the structural recovery.
Expert notes
For interactive exploration with customisable cohorts, use the NUPL Explorer (tool #135). NUPL by cohort allows building a 'cumulative stress index' by summing negative NUPLs weighted by each cohort's volume - an advanced indicator of potential capitulation. The Cointime version (CT-NUPL) weights by coinblocks rather than volume.
Common mistakes to avoid
Old cohorts in strong profit does not mean they will sell. The endowment effect and capital gains taxes create inertia. Conversely, recent cohorts in loss will not necessarily capitulate - 'latent loss' can be absorbed psychologically if the market narrative stays positive.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/nupl-cohort/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "nupl-cohort",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: pro. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.