On-Chain Correlation MatrixTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Interactive heatmap of rolling Pearson correlations between 23 key on-chain metrics and BTC price. Discover which indicators are currently most predictive and when correlations break down.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The On-Chain Correlation Matrix computes 180-day Pearson correlations between 23 key on-chain metrics and Bitcoin's price. The matrix displays an NxN heatmap where each cell represents the correlation between two metrics. Colours range from dark blue (-1, anticorrelation) to gold/yellow (+1, strong correlation), through neutral grey (0, no correlation). The diagonal is always gold (each metric perfectly correlates with itself).
How to read
Focus first on the 'BTC Price' row or column to identify metrics most correlated with price. Gold cells indicate strong positive correlation (>0.7) - these metrics move together. Blue cells indicate anticorrelation - when one rises, the other falls. Hovering over a cell displays the exact correlation coefficient value.
Key zones
Gold blocks group redundant metric families - no point tracking 5 metrics saying the same thing. Blue cells between usually correlated metrics mark decoupling. Metrics that are neutral grey relative to price are either noise or independent indicators providing complementary information.
What to observe
Look for blocks of metrics strongly correlated with each other (gold) - these are redundant families. For example MVRV, MVRV-Z and NUPL are often highly correlated as they all measure profitability. Conversely, Hash Rate and Difficulty form a technical block decorrelated from valuation metrics. The 'BTC Price' row shows which metrics track price most closely - useful for identifying confirming vs. leading indicators.
Historical context
Correlation matrices are a standard tool in quantitative finance. In the Bitcoin context, they reveal which on-chain metrics provide unique vs. redundant information. This matrix computes Pearson correlations over the last 180 days between 23 key metrics selected for their analytical diversity (valuation, network activity, miners, supply).
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - Pearson correlation measures only linear relationships. Two metrics can have a strong non-linear relationship (logarithmic, quadratic) and display weak Pearson correlation. Furthermore, correlation does not imply causation - two highly correlated metrics may simply react to the same underlying factor (price) with no causal link between them. The matrix is recomputed daily.
Common mistakes to avoid
Searching for metrics most correlated with price to 'predict' the next move is a classic mistake. High correlation measures past 180-day co-movement, not future predictive power. Correlations are unstable over time - a metric strongly correlated in an uptrend may become uncorrelated in a downtrend.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/correlation-matrix-btc/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "correlation-matrix-btc",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.