Conviction Migration MapTRINITY EXCLUSIVE
EXCLUSIVE - Sankey diagram showing real BTC flows between 5 conviction levels (Speculative → Short-Term → Maturing → Veteran → Diamond) over the last 30 days.
Trinity exclusive model
This metric is a proprietary Trinity Insights model. Its formula, inputs, weights and parameters are NOT disclosed. The page documents only the output (bounded scale, interpretation zones, historical context). Access to the score and its time series is via the REST API and the MCP server, subject to the required tier.
What is it?
The Conviction Migration Map is a proprietary Trinity Sankey diagram visualising actual bitcoin flows between five conviction levels, based on UTXO age: Speculative (< 1 month), Short-Term (1-6 months), Maturing (6 months - 2 years), Veteran (2-5 years), and Diamond (5+ years). Rightward flows (maturation) show coins naturally aging from one level to the next - these are BTC that have not been spent and whose conviction is growing. Leftward flows (redistribution) show coins spent from a higher level, returning to Speculative (every spent UTXO creates a new age-zero UTXO).
How to read
Thick flows from left to right indicate net supply maturation - coins are aging and network conviction is growing. This is a sign of a healthy accumulating market. Thick flows from right to left (back to Speculative) indicate redistribution - high-conviction holders are spending their coins, which become 'young' again. The balance between maturation and redistribution is the key reading. Hover over each flow to see the exact BTC volume over 30 days.
Key zones
Maturation dominating redistribution: the network is accumulating - structurally bullish. Redistribution from Veteran/Diamond > maturation: smart money is distributing - advanced caution indication, often leading price by 2 to 8 weeks. Redistribution only from Short-Term: weak hand profit-taking, not necessarily bearish if maturation at higher levels remains strong. Exceptionally high maturation flows after a crash: survivors accumulating capitulated coins - bottom indication.
What to observe
Compare the relative thickness of maturation (→) vs redistribution (←) flows. A massive imbalance toward maturation means very few coins are being spent - strong network conviction. Pay special attention to flows from the Diamond level (5y+): these coins have almost never moved, so redistribution from this level is a rare and significant event. The Maturing level (6m-2y) is often the 'pivot': when these coins mature into Veteran, it represents long-term commitment.
Historical context
During accumulation phases (2018-2019, 2022-2023), maturation flows dominated - coins were aging without being spent. At cycle tops (2017, 2021), redistribution from Veteran and Maturing accelerated several weeks before the price peak. The FTX debacle produced a massive redistribution spike from all levels, followed by an intense accumulation wave where maturation surged - HODLers buying massively.
Expert notes
⚠️ Trinity Exclusive Model - Data comes directly from the full node: 'matured supply' series (BTC that aged past an age threshold, 30-day rolling) provide maturation flows, and 'transfer volume' series per age band provide redistribution flows. The 5 levels aggregate 21 granular UTXO age bands. Maturation is a natural process (time passes), while redistribution requires on-chain action (spending). For complementary temporal analysis, see the Supply Absorption Engine which normalises dynamics as a Z-score.
Common mistakes to avoid
Maturation is NOT active accumulation - it is simply the passage of time. A coin aging from 5 months to 7 months was not 'bought', it simply was not sold. Redistribution does not necessarily mean a market sale - it can be wallet consolidation, a cold wallet transfer, or ETF custodian rebalancing. All these cases create new age-zero UTXOs. The snapshot shows the last 30 days - it is a point in time, not a trend. Combine with other metrics to validate direction.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/conviction-migration-map/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "conviction-migration-map",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: performance. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
Related metrics
Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.