STH vs LTH Supply
Short-Term Holders (<155 days) versus Long-Term Holders supply. LTH accumulation historically precedes bull markets.
What is it?
This metric divides Bitcoin's circulating supply into two categories based on a 155-day threshold (approximately 5 months). Coins that have not moved for more than 155 days are classified as held by Long-Term Holders (LTH), while more recently moved ones belong to Short-Term Holders (STH). This threshold was determined empirically as the point where the statistical probability of a UTXO being spent decreases significantly.
How to read
The chart shows two distinct lines in BTC: STH supply (warm colour) and LTH supply (cool colour). When the LTH line rises (and STH falls), the market is in a net accumulation phase. The opposite - STH expansion at the expense of LTH - marks redistribution. The rate of change is more significant than the absolute level: rapid LTH supply compression indicates accelerated 'awakening' of dormant coins.
Key zones
Historically, when LTH supply exceeds 75-78% of total supply, this has coincided with deep accumulation zones (market troughs). When it drops below 60%, this has been associated with advanced distribution phases. These thresholds are not absolute rules and evolve with market maturation.
What to observe
The speed of STH → LTH transition after a market trough gives an indication of the pace of growing conviction. Also watch for 'plateaus' in LTH supply - periods where the proportion remains stable despite rising prices, which may indicate a fragile equilibrium between accumulation and profit-taking.
Historical context
LTH supply reached records above 78% in 2015 and 2022, marking bear market troughs. LTH supply minima (around 55-60%) coincided with the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks. The current cycle shows a structurally higher LTH supply at comparable stages, potentially due to institutional adoption and ETFs.
Expert notes
The 155-day threshold is a convention, not a physical law. Analyses with alternative thresholds (90 days, 200 days) can reveal different dynamics. Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, a growing share of LTH supply is held by institutional custodians whose selling behaviour fundamentally differs from historical individual holders - which may reduce the predictive value of historical STH/LTH patterns.
Common mistakes to avoid
High LTH supply is not inherently 'bullish' - it can also reflect an apathetic market where no one wants to transact. Conversely, growing STH supply is not necessarily 'bearish' - at the start of a bull run, new entrants mechanically increase STH supply without marking distribution. Cycle context is essential.
Programmatic access
REST API
curl -sS \
'https://api.trinityinsights.io/api/v1/onchain/sth-lth-supply/history?days=90' \
-H 'X-API-Key: $TRINITY_API_KEY'MCP server
{
"tool": "get_chart_value",
"metric_id": "sth-lth-supply",
"timeframe": "1y"
}Required tier: free. See the pricing grid for the tier list and the MCP documentation for multi-client configuration.
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Institutional disclaimer
Trinity Insights is an educational and analytical tool. The metric above does not constitute investment advice. Trinity Insights is not a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) registered under MiCA Regulation (EU) 2023/1114. See the full disclaimer.